Iran has not yet capitulated, what is the exit strategy?

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AGHouston11
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11:12a, 5/4/26
AG
Weeks ago it was announced by Trump that Iran will agree to everything he has demanded. That lasted a day and was followed by more false announcements they have agreed to everything.
That was later followed by they will have an economic collapse in a few days which was a while ago.

Meanwhile the "regime" has constantly said they are winning and have never agreed to anything.

Now here we are with constant moving goal posts.

We went from we are ahead of schedule, their civilization will end, to they have agreed to everything we want, to Trump saying nothing may be resolved.

The strait that was open before this all began is now being controlled by Iran and now also has a US blockade because they have not capitulated.

Is there an exit strategy? What is it ?
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63
Zamacuco
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11:15a, 5/4/26
I say we ship them a couple ICBMs with nukes and hand the trigger to a rando on the street in Tehran. Let the chips fall where they may...
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EFR
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In reply to AGHouston11 • 11:25a, 5/4/26
There is no plan, not even a "concept of a plan".
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Maroon Dawn
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11:27a, 5/4/26
AG
Deny oil exports, collapse the economy, arm the populace to overthrow the Guard.
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Logos Stick
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11:28a, 5/4/26
Looks like we will have to fund a civil war in Iran. Obama did the same thing in Syria, but with nothing to show for it except 600,000 dead bodies.
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Burrus86
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11:42a, 5/4/26
AG
****'em up!
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The Chicken Ranch
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11:49a, 5/4/26
AG
But it was the greatest battle that we've ever been in. Everyone is saying how it's never been done before and that they've never seen anything like it. It's the best thing ever.
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GAC06
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11:49a, 5/4/26
AG
I'm surprised that mean tweets haven't opened the strait yet
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Im Gipper
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11:49a, 5/4/26
Why would anyone here have information on the administration's strategy?

I'm Gipper
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Im Gipper • 11:55a, 5/4/26
AG
Im Gipper said:
Why would anyone here have information on the administration's strategy?

They don't. But they do have a certain affliction.
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12thMan9
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In reply to Logos Stick • 11:58a, 5/4/26
AG
Logos Stick said:
Looks like we will have to fund a civil war in Iran. Obama did the same thing in Syria, but with nothing to show for it except 600,000 dead bodies.


So, is our goal to kill 600,001 Iranians to have something to show for our involvement there?

And what are the sides of the "civil war" in Iran?
Ronnie '88
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Burdizzo
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12:03p, 5/4/26
AG
Iran knows their best bet is the long game because Trump won't be president in three years, and the American public doesn't have the long term commitment. Three years to them is the blink of an eye. Their populace is largely at the mercy of the IRGC. They are still executing dissent. The masses are unhappy, but they have no weapons. Unless we put boots in country (I see that as a longshot), the Mullahs and Ayatollahs just wait us out.
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YellAg2004
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12:03p, 5/4/26
AG
Can someone explain to me why Iran is allowed to even have a say about the Strait at this point?

What do they have that is allowing them to close the Strait, and why have we not turned it into a smoldering hole or an artificial reef?
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Claude!
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In reply to YellAg2004 • 12:05p, 5/4/26
YellAg2004 said:
Can someone explain to me why Iran is allowed to even have a say about the Strait at this point?

What do they have that is allowing them to close the Strait, and why have we not turned it into a smoldering hole or an artificial reef?


They have a say because they have the threat of mines, boats, missiles, and drones and because the owners of large shipping vessels are risk averse.
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to YellAg2004 • 12:06p, 5/4/26
AG
YellAg2004 said:
Can someone explain to me why Iran is allowed to even have a say about the Strait at this point?

What do they have that is allowing them to close the Strait, and why have we not turned it into a smoldering hole or an artificial reef?


The answer to why they have a say is two fold

1. Geography.
2. We haven't stopped them from having a say

Force is the only language they speak, and that's what it's gonna take. Whether we actually do it or not, that's another question.
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 12:17p, 5/4/26
AG
Maroon Dawn said:
Deny oil exports, collapse the economy, arm the populace to overthrow the Guard.

Thanks to the Democrats and their left wing media allies, Iran believes they can outlast Trump because the American media will carry the political narrative for them and eventually sway public opinion to force Trump to back down. It's almost like they haven't been paying attention to how he deals.

Iran greatly overestimates their bargaining position. Trump has been incredibly patient and restrained for the past three weeks. All the military pieces are in place. They shouldn't get to negotiate for anything at this point.

Acceptance of the American terms of surrender should be the only path forward for them now.
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AGHouston11
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In reply to Im Gipper • 12:21p, 5/4/26
AG
Im Gipper said:
Why would anyone here have information on the administration's strategy?


Early on were told over and over the president's objectives were clear.

So now the administration's objectives are no longer clear thus the exit strategy is not publicly stated? We went from we are ahead of schedule to the exit strategy is no longer public?
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HalifaxAg
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12:21p, 5/4/26
AG
"Take off, nuke it from space, it's the only way to be sure...."

Wiser words have never been spoken.
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f1ghtintexasaggie
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 12:22p, 5/4/26
Maroon Dawn said:
Deny oil exports, collapse the economy, arm the populace to overthrow the Guard.


This has never ever gone wrong or backfired in our long history of regime changes. Never. Not once. Ever.
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BTKAG97
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12:23p, 5/4/26
AG
An "Exit Strategy" assumes there are boots on the ground which there are currently none.
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Gigem314
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In reply to Ag87H2O • 12:24p, 5/4/26
AG
Ag87H2O said:
Maroon Dawn said:
Deny oil exports, collapse the economy, arm the populace to overthrow the Guard.

Thanks to the Democrats and their left wing media allies, Iran believes they can outlast Trump because the American media will carry the political narrative for them and eventually sway public opinion to force Trump to back down.

They saw how things were under Obama and Biden. They know there's a large faction of American politicians that think the best way to handle Iran is leave them alone...which is great for the mullahs because they've been fighting the U.S. for many many years while thumbing their nose at the free world by building up a nuclear program in secret. People can smirk all they want over whether negotiations from Trump will work, but we have without question taken a much better approach to weakening Iran's threat.

I can't imagine how far Iran would be right now had Harris won in 2024. Thank goodness we've at least been able to set Iran back.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Ag87H2O • 12:25p, 5/4/26
AG
Ag87H2O said:
Maroon Dawn said:
Deny oil exports, collapse the economy, arm the populace to overthrow the Guard.

Thanks to the Democrats and their left wing media allies, Iran believes they can outlast Trump because the American media will carry the political narrative for them and eventually sway public opinion to force Trump to back down. It's almost like they haven't been paying attention to how he deals.

Iran greatly overestimates their bargaining position. Trump has been incredibly patient and restrained for the past three weeks. All the military pieces are in place. They shouldn't get to negotiate for anything at this point.

Acceptance of the American terms of surrender should be the only path forward for them now.

Its amazing how much the Dems and MSM reflect the publications and words of... Al Jazeera.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/trumps-project-freedom-can-us-navy-guide-stuck-ships-out-of-hormuz

The ins and outs of Iran's capabilities to continue to impact the Strait of Hormuz are a quagmire of misinformation. Their capabilities are greatly diminished but that are not eliminated 100% - and it appears the carriers and their insurance providers want 100% or very close to it.

It will be difficult to tell who in Iran is capable of "capitulating" and whether anyone will ever trust or believe anything out of Iran given the reliance on IRGC propaganda taken as fact.
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Bondag
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In reply to Im Gipper • 12:26p, 5/4/26
AG
Im Gipper said:
Why would anyone here have information on the administration's strategy?

We used to have a Secretary of Defense post on here from time to time.
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MouthBQ98
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12:27p, 5/4/26
AG
Time. They will collapse if they can't sell oil. Patience Grasshopper
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TexAgs91
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In reply to AGHouston11 • 12:27p, 5/4/26
AG
AGHouston11 said:
Meanwhile the "regime" has constantly said they are winning and have never agreed to anything.


Question for you... Why do you think Iran hadn't taken out it's leadership, airforce, navy, their access to the Strait, their ability to sell oil and their nuclear program years ago?

They could have been winning all this time!
No, I don't care what CNN or Miss NOW said this time
Ad Lunam
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Queso1
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In reply to EFR • 12:27p, 5/4/26
AG
EFR said:
There never was a plan, not even a "concept of a plan".


FIFY.

What will happen is that the admin will come out with moved goalposts and claim a victory/success. The usual pundits will cheer it on and attack anyone that doesn't go along. And, these points will be parroted here by the usuals.
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HDeathstar
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12:28p, 5/4/26
Good plan is to block Iran's ships with the blockade. Let other ships through. If Iran attacks those ships, we hit them again.

Otherwise keep the blockade going. Let them run out of money with no oil sales and let their wells lose pressure when they run out of oil storage. This hit them long term, since they can't make peace and easily turn on the oil money spigot to fix their issues. Leaders will have issues paying the army if there is no money.
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No Spin Ag
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12:28p, 5/4/26
A free Iranian people and no uranium in Iran. Anything less is unacceptable.

Carry on, rant(?) over.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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Wearer of the Ring
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12:30p, 5/4/26
AG
Patience, Grasshoppers. The blockade is an ever tightening vice. The "exit Strategy" as it's being called here, is that at some point Iran's government (whatever and whomever that is) is gonna snap. Right now no one, except a few islamic sailors, is getting blown up. I'd say that's a good thing. Meanwhile the ratchet is inexorably turning turning turning. Why get anyone hurt when all you have to do is wait.
I feel so much better since about 11 a.m. CT on 20 Jan. 2025
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eric76
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12:32p, 5/4/26
AG
Without boots on the ground, it seems highly unlikely that we had any chance at effecting a regime change.

Without it, what's the point?
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Apache
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12:32p, 5/4/26
AG
Quote:
Looks like we will have to fund a civil war in Iran. Obama did the same thing in Syria, but with nothing to show for it except 600,000 dead bodies.

There's more to show: Europe is dealing with 1+ million Syrians that claimed Asylum & we have another 50-60k probably permanently on the dole here in the US.
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TrumpsBarber
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In reply to Claude! • 12:32p, 5/4/26
Claude! said:
YellAg2004 said:
Can someone explain to me why Iran is allowed to even have a say about the Strait at this point?

What do they have that is allowing them to close the Strait, and why have we not turned it into a smoldering hole or an artificial reef?


They have a say because they have the threat of mines, boats, missiles, and drones and because the owners of large shipping vessels are risk averse.

Most maritime insurance policies exclude coverage for Acts of War although the premiums are sky high. Those ship owners who purchase special coverage for large sums of money are also reluctant to screw the pooch. This is Iran's leverage.
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Gigem314
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In reply to f1ghtintexasaggie • 12:32p, 5/4/26
AG
f1ghtintexasaggie said:
Maroon Dawn said:
Deny oil exports, collapse the economy, arm the populace to overthrow the Guard.


This has never ever gone wrong or backfired in our long history of regime changes. Never. Not once. Ever.

There is no clean solution in that part of the world.

Where it's backfired is when we disturbed secular-ish dictatorships that weren't really going after the U.S. or Israel (Syria, Libya, Egypt) and let the religious crazies sweep in and take over to create a bigger threat.

In the case of Iran, the religious crazies are the ones in charge and they have been targeting the U.S. and Israel for decades. They were basically a large terrorist organization with the resources to build bigger weapons.

I think the chances of getting something worse from weakening Iran's military and eliminating their current leaders is far less than had we just taken the Obama/Biden approach and left them alone to continue their proxy war that we refused to acknowledge was already going on long before we bombed them.
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The Collective
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12:32p, 5/4/26
AG
I don't really get the impatience at this very moment - is it merely fuel prices that we are freaking out about?
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Squadron7
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In reply to eric76 • 12:33p, 5/4/26
AG
eric76 said:
Without boots on the ground, it seems highly unlikely that we had any chance at effecting a regime change.

Without it, what's the point?


Pushing their capabilities back a few years is no small thing.
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