This is a weird situation. I'm sure it is clear to AD / Rich Paul that he won't be playing for the Mavs any more this season. That doesn't necessarily mean he won't ever play for the Mavs again, but that they will not risk bringing him back in March (surgery or no) for meaningless basketball. The problem is that AD wants an extension and needs to keep playing to have any chance at one. He also thinks he can play again this year and I'm sure wants to prove himself.

My guess is that any AD offer was only going to be expirings plus 1 minor asset (someone like Risacher or 1 mid to late first round pick). After the hand injury it might just be expirings only. I know some disagree and want AD gone today, but I wouldn't do that. If there isn't a single asset attached to AD then I would rather sit him, wait until next year then re-assess.

The Toronto Raptors remain interested in Anthony Davis, and any trade package would include a combination of Immanuel Quickley or Jakob Poeltl, along with RJ Barrett, per @TheSteinLine

“Sources say Toronto is among the teams that has maintained trade interest in Davis, but any… pic.twitter.com/RF34Rmfv6l

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) January 14, 2026

Wouldn't want any part of the Quickly or Poeltl contracts

Surely something workable will come through from someone. I'm willing to lose a trade over it, as long as we're set up ok financially and draft wise

This is where I'm at as well; if they get a trade that might not be as good as they would want financially but get good assets back, then great. But if they get a trade that doesn't carry any good assets, but has good financial terms (aka dumping a lot of salary), then great for that too. It's the scenario where they trade AD, get nothing in return and also take on more awful contracts that they cannot do.

Quickley's contract isn't great in a vacuum, but it's palatable when you're paying Flagg like $15 million for the next 3 years.

Raptors are 8-10 without Barrett this year, so it's interesting that they want to get rid of him. He did just get injured again, though. The Poeltl contract is brutal if his back is always hurt.

I think I'd do the deal though, if they are giving you their pick this year. Assuming AD gets injured again, a team with a top 3 of Barnes, Ingram, and CMB is falling in to the lottery. I'm assuming we'd have to add Gaff and/or Klay to make salaries work.

Mavs shut down Poeltl for the year, take their time with Barrett, and exercise extreme caution with Kyrie, Mavs could have 2 decent cracks in the lottery.

Quickley's contract is flat, so it actually falls as a percentage of the cap as time goes on. It's under 20% of the cap starting next season. Quickley as our second ball handler next to Kyrie would actually be solid. It's not a tall backcourt, but it's talented. Quickley does have a long wingspan.

Poeltl is less than 12% of the cap next year, but it jumps to about 16% in 27-28 and 28-29, then falls to 14% in 29-30. So it's not great, but it isn't abominable either.

I think it's a pretty easy decision to take on Poeltl if it also gets you Quickley, Barrett, and a pick. Most importantly, you aren't committing 40% of your cap to AD for 3-4 more years.

IQ makes ~20% of the cap and since he joined Toronto has has been a 17/6 guy with decent defense but just 42/37 shooting.

I like him as a player but his contact should be way lower because he's a bottom third starting PG in the NBA. Dallas has enough bag contracts as it is. IQ makes about the same as Brunson.

Toronto is dangling him in every trade because they regret his contract.

With this being a good PG draft, I don't think I would want too take him on until off season.

If Dallas was off Klay, Martin and maybe Kyrie, it would feel better to take him on. But he makes more than Gaff+PJ combined this year and about the same as Gafford, Naji, and Christie next year. A guy on a contract like that will inevitably limit the depth you can build.


Jakob's is worse because he can't stay health and has 3 more years fully guaranteed plus a 4th partially guaranteed. His defense is getting noticably worse with his rim defense just -.3 now. He's already 30, so the next 3 years look pretty bleak.

Giving essentially Super Max money for a combination of Quickly+Poeltl is a nightmare for cap flexibility.

Guitarsoup said:

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IQ makes ~20% of the cap and since he joined Toronto has has been a 17/6 guy with decent defense but just 42/37 shooting.

I like him as a player but his contact should be way lower because he's a bottom third starting PG in the NBA. Dallas has enough bag contracts as it is. IQ makes about the same as Brunson.

Toronto is dangling him in every trade because they regret his contract.

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I think that team has weird spacing this year with Barnes and Ingram on the floor. He was 38% from 3 last year and he was 39.5% in 23-24. He's a better fit with Kyrie than anybody on the Raptors. He averages more than 6 assists per game and less than 2 TOs. Mavs need a guy like that who can just control the ball.

Saying he makes the same as Brunson just shows what a steal Brunson's contract is lol.

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With this being a good PG draft, I don't think I would want too take him on until off season.

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I'd love to have Kyrie, Quickley, and one of the rookie PGs as our 3 primary ballhandlers for next season and beyond.

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If Dallas was off Klay, Martin and maybe Kyrie, it would feel better to take him on. But he makes more than Gaff+PJ combined this year and about the same as Gafford, Naji, and Christie next year. A guy on a contract like that will inevitably limit the depth you can build.

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He's a better player than Gafford and PJ combined based on VORP/WAR. Much better. Mavs would have to be off of at least one of Gafford or Klay and maybe somebody else to make salaries work in the current framing of this trade.

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Jakob's is worse because he can't stay health and has 3 more years fully guaranteed plus a 4th partially guaranteed. His defense is getting noticably worse with his rim defense just -.3 now. He's already 30, so the next 3 years look pretty bleak.

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It's bad, but I'd take it on for Barrett, Quickley, and their 2026 pick. That team is sinking if they do this deal lol.

The thing that annoys the **** out of me is that this trade deadline is extremely critical for the Mavs future and they don't have a GM in place to navigate it.

I just always have to double take every time I see that the Mavs don't have their own first round pick after this year until 2031 hahahah.

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It's bad, but I'd take it on for Barrett, Quickley, and their 2026 pick. That team is sinking if they do this deal lol.

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Not on the table, though. It's two of Barrett, Quickley, and Poeltl, the money doesn't work with all three.

If you could get them to take AD+Klay+Martin, the difference is less than $1M, though. Mavs would save about 700k, but I don't think that is being offered. It's two smaller bad contracts for 1 bigger bad contract. My guess is they give you a pick to get rid of Poeltl or no pick to take Barrett with Quickley.

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He's a better fit with Kyrie than anybody on the Raptors. He averages more than 6 assists per game and less than 2 TOs. Mavs need a guy like that who can just control the ball.

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Maybe. I just don't think he is good. I think he is probably below average for starting guards, but he is paid along the lines as the better guards. In a vacuum where you are signing him as a FA, getting him in the 12-15% range makes sense for this team. But getting him at ~20% and locked into a long term deal changes the value.

Quickley is a negative asset because of his contract.

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Saying he makes the same as Brunson just shows what a steal Brunson's contract is lol.

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The other side of that, is Brunson is likely getting paid under the table like Kawhi.

Think of recent contracts being signed: Giddey got 4y100M. White got 4y118M. Nembhard got 3y58M.

There's just no two ways about it, Quickley is a negative contract. He's a guy I like, but you gotta get rid of several negative contracts to take on a couple more. Mavs need a path to get out of the aprons and if you take Quickley+Barrett for AD without dumping some of the dead weight (Klay, Martin, DLo, Hardy) for expirings, the Mavs are in the 2nd Apron next year.

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He's a better player than Gafford and PJ combined based on VORP/WAR. Much better. Mavs would have to be off of at least one of Gafford or Klay and maybe somebody else to make salaries work in the current framing of this trade.

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Ok. Quickly has a better VORP than Cooper Flagg, too. Maxey, Kawhi, and Dono are better than Giannis. Naji Marshall is better than Bam. Jimmy Butler and Julius Randle are better than Jaylen Brown.

Tksymm7 said:

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I just always have to double take every time I see that the Mavs don't have their own first round pick after this year until 2031 hahahah.

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Insane.

How about this for a big dumb trade of the day.

Charlotte moves on from Ball, brings in AD, which doesn't affect the tank and they get Keon Ellis. Ball doesn't really have any value in the league and he cant be counted on to actually play in games or play defense. The team needs to be focused around Kon, Miller, and their 2026 pick. They do this while keeping all their main core together and improve the defense (next year) with Ellis and AD. They assume if the Mavs aren't tanking next year, they are good enough with healthy Kyrie to be in the playoffs, so they are only giving up a mid-round pick and Josh Green for AD. Since their main players are young, AD's contract doesn't kill them with Ball gone. And no one can win with Ball being your PG.

Dallas gets their 2027 pick back, so they can tank an extra season. They also unload a ton of salary, so they are just 4M from the luxury tax line, which can be accomplished with a dump of Klay. DeRozan is under contract next year, but it is only $10M guaranteed, so he can be traded again or waived and stretched. Green only has 1 more year left, which isn't great, but 14M of Green and 10M guaranteed of DeRozan is better than $58M of Anthony Davis then another $62M of Anthony Davis the following year and the tank is possible one more year if necessary. So no rotation players back, but clearing out of the tax this year and next year and getting the 27 pick back makes it worth it.

Kings do it because they can get off of DeRozan and get a young starish player. They buy low on Ball, which they need to do, because their team is a ****ing mess. Carter, who isn't working out, Ellis who they can't afford to keep and clear our DeRozan's cap.

Guitarsoup said:

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It's bad, but I'd take it on for Barrett, Quickley, and their 2026 pick. That team is sinking if they do this deal lol.

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Not on the table, though. It's two of Barrett, Quickley, and Poeltl, the money doesn't work with all three.

If you could get them to take AD+Klay+Martin, the difference is less than $1M, though. Mavs would save about 700k, but I don't think that is being offered. It's two smaller bad contracts for 1 bigger bad contract. My guess is they give you a pick to get rid of Poeltl or no pick to take Barrett with Quickley.

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Ok, I reread the tweet. I didn't realize they are saying only Quickley with Barrett is on the table. If I'm the Mavs, I'm doing that tomorrow and don't even need a pick lol. AD for Quickley and Barrett? That's highway robbery for the Mavs. I just don't think that's a realistic because it's too good to be true.

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He's a better player than Gafford and PJ combined based on VORP/WAR. Much better. Mavs would have to be off of at least one of Gafford or Klay and maybe somebody else to make salaries work in the current framing of this trade.

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Ok. Quickly has a better VORP than Cooper Flagg, too. Maxey, Kawhi, and Dono are better than Giannis. Naji Marshall is better than Bam. Jimmy Butler and Julius Randle are better than Jaylen Brown.

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Ok this seems like you're just doing a bit to try to make a point on the internet. Surely you can understand the point I'm making and even why the comparisons you're making are the way they are this year.

But just to be clear, PJ's best year of his career his VORP was 0.9. Quickley is already at 1.1 this year. and has never been below that any year of his career. PJ is extemely overrated by people who aren't watching the Mavs every night, and even by most Mavs fans. Gafford is having the worst year of his career by far this year.

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Ok this seems like you're just doing a bit to try to make a point on the internet. Surely you can understand the point I'm making and even why the comparisons you're making are the way they are this year.

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I think VORP is pretty much useless in the NBA, which is what I was pointing out.

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I clearly value the flexibility of clearing out bad contracts and getting out of the aprons more than you do. I don't think Dallas will be able to build a winning team with a bunch of mid players on bad contracts and the restrictions of the aprons make it too difficult to make moves and add the right talent around players.

So my focus would be on getting rid of the bad contracts, acquiring any picks possible, and gaining the flexibility to pivot after the lottery. That's why Denver sent out an unprotected 1st to downgrade from MPJ to Cam last year. They needed to build depth and duck the aprons because they couldn't build (or retain) the depth needed while in the apron. Dallas would be in that same situation next year if they don't try to get out from some of the bad contracts now. It's going to drag out the rebuilding process.

And I wouldn't VORP means everything, but when there is that big a discrepancy, I think that tells a story.

AD is the worst contract in the deal and it's also similar to the Micah Parsons situation where part of the value in the trade is not committing a ton more money and years to a guy you don't want to give it to. Mavs are just in the spot where you have to make a terrible situation less bad.

A team next year that has Kyrie, Quickley, Flagg, Barrett, and a top 6 pick would be fun to watch. If Lively is healthy, even better. If Toronto is so happy to give up Quickley that we have another first rounder (probably lottery), even better again.

Flagg and Gafford turned ankles in this game... The tank should be fully on now. Don't want to see either of them play again until after the all star break.

Was wondering how you were keeping track of all the pick swaps/picks each team had. That's an impressive tool.

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And I wouldn't VORP means everything, but when there is that big a discrepancy, I think that tells a story.

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You are the first person I have ever come in contact with that put any value whatsoever in NBA VORP.

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AD is the worst contract in the deal and it's also similar to the Micah Parsons situation where part of the value in the trade is not committing a ton more money and years to a guy you don't want to give it to. Mavs are just in the spot where you have to make a terrible situation less bad.

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Which is why my trade ideas go the route of getting off salary and trying to get back picks or mitigate the swaps.

So Dallas has the bad end of the DAL-OKC swap, but if you made a trade, you could swap that bad end for the good end of someone else's pick and mitigate the damage of that swap somewhat. Theoretically you could come out ahead on it. Or like the trade above, getting the 1st from Charlotte in 2027 back. But getting below the aprons and getting out from bad contracts while getting back draft assets would be my goal for this soft rebuild.

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A team next year that has Kyrie, Quickley, Flagg, Barrett, and a top 6 pick would be fun to watch.

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Fun to watch maybe, but what's the ceiling and how can that team be improved since they are a 2nd apron team? Just wait for Klay, Martin, Hardy, etc to fall off?

hph6203 said:

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Was wondering how you were keeping track of all the pick swaps/picks each team had. That's an impressive tool.

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Fanspo has some and it is easier to use, but not always correct. Their trade tool is what I used for that, but it will let illegal trades go through. I like that you can see the impact on luxury tax and apron easier.

Spotrac usually has better data (other leagues too) but they don't have all the picks right. Their trade tool is more accurate, but they don't have all the picks exactly right. Like it shows the Spurs have the Bulls 1st this year, but we traded that back to the Bulls last year in the Deaaron Fox trade, and they used it on Noa Essengue.

For looking at on-off for teammates (like who plays best with who), Databallr is the best/easiest tool.

Guitarsoup said:

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Fun to watch maybe, but what's the ceiling and how can that team be improved since they are a 2nd apron team? Just wait for Klay, Martin, Hardy, etc to fall off?

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A team whose two best players will be 19 years old? Not great, but I don't expect the franchise to work a miracle and make the team a contender next season or even the season after that.

There also isn't really a point while Jokic and OKC are doing what they are doing. Just get as young and talented as possible and be prepared to build around Flagg and whoever the 2026 pick is when you have money to spend and draft picks to trade in several years.

I don't rely on advanced metrics but PJs size and skill are hard to find in the league. He's in his prime and on a good contract. I think every team in the league would view him as an asset regardless of his "VORP" rating.

He really strikes me as a guy who is struggling mainly due to (1) injury, and (2) not having a legit PG or creator on the team outside of Flagg and occasionally Nembhard. He's a pretty prototypical wing player in the modern NBA who needs to play off of other options, and we just don't really have that on a night to night basis, especially with Flagg out.

M.C. Swag said:

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I don't rely on advanced metrics but PJs size and skill are hard to find in the league. He's in his prime and on a good contract. I think every team in the league would view him as an asset regardless of his "VORP" rating.

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Yeah. His shooting is bad this year, but he's a multi-positional defender that rebounds at a high level with elite length and plus strength. He's been a 36% shooter from three for his career and was 38% last year. And we saw his contributions to winning in 2024 when he played really great defense against tough opponents in JDub and Ant en route to the Finals.

There are lots of guys that put up stats that aren't necessarily guys that contribute to winning or guys that can lead a team to the championship. That's why Atlanta only got an expiring contract and a no-defense shooter on a bad contract for All-NBA player Trae Young. That's why no one wants LaMelo Ball or Ja Morant. But PJ Washington is a guy you can slot in on any team in the league and he is useful - even on a bad team. Doesn't matter who else is on the tea, because he is portable.

Gafford is like that too, even if this is a down year for him. He's 87th percentile in rim defense this year. There are very few teams that don't need a 87th percentile rim defender for 20-25mpg.

Yeah, it is all coming off the implications of the apron system, which was meant to keep teams like Golden State and the Clippers from just spending their way to a championship because they dont care about taxes. The league wanted more parity and we have 7 different champions in the last 7 years, so from that standpoint, it is a success. If more teams have a chance to win, then there is more fan interest.

OKC is somewhat an outlier because of how they built that team, but the piper is coming this summer. If they only use one draft pick and let Dieng walk in free agency, they will have about 250M in taxes next year when Chet+JDub's contracts hit for a total payroll+tax of about 500M. Only six teams have paid over $225M in tax cumulatively since it started in 2002 and no one has paid more than the 177M in tax that GSW paid in 23. OKC has paid a total of about 100M in tax in franchise history, all of it back in the Westbrook days. I think they are going to have to make big salary cutting moves this summer, too.

In the history of the NBA luxury tax, there have been 5 team seasons with over $100MM in taxes paid. GSW three straight from 21-22 to the 23-24 seasons, two Kawhi/PG13 Ballmer seasons (note does not include Aspirations under the table money), and Phoenix last year. I have a hard time seeing OKC paying 45% more tax next year than any other team has ever paid in a season and it would also represent 2.5 times more tax than they have paid for the entire history of the franchise for just one season.

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But beyond the tax and apron system, I think teams are changing how they view players and those players contributions to winning. That's why there is no market for Ja or Ball and Trae was traded for a bag of chips. Not at all saying Nico was right because he wasn't, but Luka is 2nd to last after Harden in total movement on defense.

Luka Doncic is 26 but statistically, he moves on defense like he's deep in his 30s. pic.twitter.com/38MvRhmTkI

— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) January 14, 2026

You could build a winner around Luka, but we saw what it took: a lot of D&3 guys and elite level rim protectors to make up for his lack of effort or crying to refs instead of crossing mid court. You essentially have to build the entire team around making up for his weaknesses or lack of effort.

But teams are realizing that some players, no matter what you do, just will never positively affect winning. Some of that is the way teams will just bludgeon a team's weakness on every single possession until they sub out a player like we see when someone massively negative defensively like Trae Young or Rob Dillingham comes into the game.

Just like when teams started to shoot high volumes of 3pters, teams had to change the way they built teams and guys like Brook Lopez, Kristaps, or Myles Turner that could protect the rim and also spread the floor became more valuable.

But back to salaries, negative value contracts just hurt you a significant amount more because of the apron system and flexibility has significantly more value. If you look at how OKC built up their warchest of picks beyond the Clippers pick, a lot of it was taking on bad contracts from teams in exchange for picks. Philly had to dump Al Hortford and paid OKC a 1st to dump him (OKC gets Philly's pick this year) and then Boston decided they needed Hortford back and paid OKC another first (used to draft Alpy Sengun who was traded to Houston) for Hortford. So just having that cap flexibility netted OKC two valuable firsts. That's why my plan would be to do whatever it takes to dump AD, Klay, Martin, Hardy, DLo and rebuild around the 26 1st, Coop, Kyrie (unless you can get value), PJ, Naji, Max, Gaff/Lively.

I don't think the "apron" method and how punitive it is has been around long enough quite yet to fully determine the entire impact it has had or will have, but I wonder if one of its ultimate impacts will be keeping role player value down. Like guys like Jerami Grant or Patrick Williams will no longer get RIDICULOUS contracts (3 years, $102.6 million; 4 years, $72.0 million respectively). Jerami effing grant is making 34.2 million dollars a year....

Tksymm7 said:

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I don't think the "apron" method and how punitive it is has been around long enough quite yet to fully determine the entire impact it has had or will have, but I wonder if one of its ultimate impacts will be keeping role player value down. Like guys like Jerami Grant or Patrick Williams will no longer get RIDICULOUS contracts (3 years, $102.6 million; 4 years, $72.0 million respectively). Jerami effing grant is making 34.2 million dollars a year....

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I think the way we saw Denver sell off MPJ and Boston sell off much of their team last summer are examples of how it is working in the way intended. Giannis wants to go to the Knicks, but the Knicks blew their load on KAT/Bridges and only have 148k in space before the 2nd apron, which is their hard cap, which prevents them from making a Giannis deal. We are seeing that Cleveland is vastly underperforming again, but they can't really do anything about it because they are a 2nd apron team.

You are right though about the role player contracts. But Jerami and Patrick's contracts were all considered awful when the teams made them. It is really squeezing the players that should be in the range between the MLE and the 25% lower max. So Josh Giddey is a good example. He only got 4y100M but is putting up 19/9/9, is hitting over 38% of his threes in Chicago and plays acceptable defense and can guard 1-4.

We are definitely going to see more squeezing of the mid-tier role players. Last year only two players got the full MLE to sign as a FA. Dame Lilliard to Portland and Caris Lavert to Detroit. Kornet, DFS, and Kennard are the only other players that got more than 10M of the MLE to sign as a FA. Kornet and DFS' contracts were only partially guaranteed, Kennard was a 1y deal and LaVert was just a 2y deal and Dame's contract goes down next year and is only 3y (max 4 with 8% raises.)

Luka and defense.

What are some NBA champions whose best player was bad on defense? Magic? Curry? It's a pretty short list I'm sure.

Curry at least gave you effort though. He just ultimately is kinda small, not long, and not the absolute quickest laterally even though he sort of was quick running around the floor.

Who would you think is more valuable to the Mavs: PJ or Naji? Everybody would have said PJ before this season.

Every standard and advanced metric says Naji has been more valuable to the Mavs both last year and this year, and it isn't particularly close.

PJ has had some all time moments on the Mavs and he'll always be a legend for the finals run. But his offensive skill is so lacking that it more than offsets his defensive and rebounding values.

I wonder if OKC would take him for our swap rights back in '28. They'll need vets on contracts like his, and somehow he's a perfect fit on that team.

I would definitely take Naji over PJ.

Vessel said:

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I wonder if OKC would take him for our swap rights back in '28. They'll need vets on contracts like his, and somehow he's a perfect fit on that team.

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Don't you DARE suggest PJ ever play in a fooking Thunder uniform.

dave94 said:

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Vessel said:

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I wonder if OKC would take him for our swap rights back in '28. They'll need vets on contracts like his, and somehow he's a perfect fit on that team.

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Don't you DARE suggest PJ ever play in a fooking Thunder uniform.

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Would be tragic but it would be a good deal for our future.