The Mavs point differential is -4.2. That is very similar to Portland, Milwaukee, and Chicago this year. Yet those teams have +8, +5, and +4 wins more than the Mavs respectively.

What is interesting is that the Mavs have actually played the most clutch games in the league. They have also been 2nd worst in injuries per contract value. Basically all of the games missed by AD and Kyrie (~$90M combined salaries) represent a huge chunk of the salary cap gone missing.

So how are the Mavs losing so much more than their peers despite being semi-competitive in most games? I think the obvious answers are lack of PG play and shooting, i.e. terrible roster construction by Nico. Take a guy like PJ Washington. To me he is a winning player (he started on a finals team just 2 years ago), but is basically useless this year since he is surrounded by non-shooters and no ball handling. That is true for Gafford as a rim-rolling PNR big. True for a semi-washed Klay who needs a PG to initiate. Same for Christie. Maybe it is good for Flagg in the long run, but he won't be at peak efficiency if he has to initiate all of the offense.

So if Kyrie is somewhat back to his old self then he would fix part of the ball handling and shooting issues. If the Mavs draft another guard that is another fix, although maybe longer term. If the Mavs spend for a guard on the MLE, that is another fix. Just with common sense roster construction alone they can at least be competitive next year, probably at the 6 - 10 seedline.

The only problem is I think the FA market will be buns this year. But you can trade a player into the MLE and trade an additional player into the trade exception.

I think Kennard stays in LA. Rui, too. Lakers will try to get Kessler or Duren, but both will stay where they are (RFA) and they don't have other great options. Then LA overpays Reaves and are kind of limited on what else they can do.

Powell will get more than the MLE and stay in Miami.

Harden will probably stay in Cleveland and might opt out for more years and guaranteed money at a lower price next year (when they get Bron to come back.)

Coby White turned down a 4y87M deal, but I think that is more than he is really worth. He's a good scorer, but awful defender. I think his ideal role is 6th man, which would fit behind Max. But does he know that? I wouldn't give him more than the MLE and he may want to go somewhere like Sacramento where he can just put up empty stats.

I think OKC will have to let Lu Dort go. But he can't shoot, so more of the same, but way shorter than Naji.

Anfernee Simons is like Coby White to me. Good scorer, awful defender, best utilized as a MLE 6th man, but probably thinks himself a legit starting player.

It is funny, but like you said, Grimes makes a lot of sense on this team. No one wanted to pay him last year, and his role on a contending team is probably as a backup.

Guys like Eason, Watson, etc will make too much.

Guys like Collin Sexton could be had below the MLE.

I like Ayo Dosunmu's fit on the Mavs, but I would bet he would prefer a bigger role. Stealing Kris Dunn from LAC to be a PatBev type D&3 guard would be solid.

If the drafted player is more of a SG, stealing Jose Alvarado from the Knicks would be fantastic.

If you could get a guy like Coby White or Anfernee Simons to take the 6th man role, I think that makes a lot of sense even though their defense sucks. Grimes would make sense, but he isn't the scorer they are. I like the idea of Kris Dunn or Jose Alvarado if you don't draft a more pure PG. If you end up in a spot for a forward like Boozer, you might want a better guard like Sexton.

Idk about Powell getting more than $15m/yr as he's going to be 33 yrs old but my larger point was that the mavs have multiple levers they can pull to address lack of shooting (via draft, trade, or FA).

I like Coby White. He wasn't as bad defensively last season when Chicago had some juice. He has some size. If he's fine coming off the bench, he's a great guy to have run the second unit.

Simons would be a nice guy to have off the bench when you need scoring, but I think he wants to be the guy. No thanks.

Maybe we could do a S&T with Denver for Peyton Watson. Maybe Denver thinks Klay is a good fit next to Jokic and Murray.

Like MC Swag said, the Mavs will do most of their offseason damage via trades. PJ and Klay are tradable. It will depend on who they get the chance to draft.

I think the Lakers flirt heavily with Peyton Watson after they get denied by Duren and Kessler. Watson is from Long Beach and went to UCLA. But Denver is going to keep him and try to move Cam Johnson (about 23M).

Klay for Cam actually works financially and would save Denver about 6M. Dallas gets the injury-prone Cam, but he is 6y younger a better overall player than Klay. Probably makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Cam Johnson was basically crying after a game the other day because he's so bad at basketball.

Maybe he needs a situation change to get better again, but I'd be extremely apprehensive about any move for him.

Also it's time for the Mavs to get out of the business of players who constantly get injured.

He's still an upgrade to Klay on both ends of the court. Shooting 45/41/85 this year. And he is an ending contract, just like Klay and would preserve the trade exception and MLE.

I don't think Denver was the right spot for him, especially with Hardaway still lighting up the nets and Watson making the leap.

BREAKING: The expectation in Orlando now is that Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg WILL indeed play tonight for the first time in nine games, league sources tell @TheSteinLine and @DLLS_Sports. https://t.co/Hvsrv4QDoe

— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) March 5, 2026

A reason to watch again

Needs to go on a tear here, but continue to lose games

I thought for sure they'd hold him out tonight to ensure the loss to Orlando, then bring him back tomorrow against Boston on the same night they get Tatum back.

We could actually beat Orlando tonight in a disgustingly 1990 type of game that's like 96-92.

We can't **** up this tank tho lol

An interesting development to watch that starts tonight: Trae Young is returning for Washington against Utah. Utah has messed around and almost accidentally beaten a couple good teams recently since Keyonte returned. Keyonte will not be playing tonight.

Utah is 2 games behind Washington in the tank-off. Utah and Washington play one more time this season after tonight. Utah will do what they can to lose both their games against Washington in order to pass them in the tank-off. Washington is 3 wins away from the Mavs if they beat Utah twice.

I don't like Trae Young as a player, but he is the kind of player who can win a game by going 8/15 from 3. If Washington has decided Trae is going to play, maybe they will decide AD plays some games down the stretch also. Who knows.

M.C. Swag said:

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We can't **** up this tank tho lol

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I agree, that's why I disagree with how the Mavs are playing this. Mavs were going to lose in Boston tomorrow either way, why not just wait an extra day to bring Coop back.

I hope he's on a severe 'minutes restriction' tonight

The Magic are insanely underwhelming and Cooper might need to be benched or the Mavs are gonna win this game

Lol to this statement is all I have to say

Clutch loss.

Bless

Nice

Bro that was too close lol

One win ahead of NO in the standings and only 2 wins ahead of the Jazz now.

Vessel said:

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One win ahead of NO in the standings and only 2 wins ahead of the Jazz now.

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I just don't see any scenario in which the Mavs end up ahead of the Jazz. Their roster is terrible right now, way worse than the Mavericks, and Ainge will make it even worse if he has to. I think the Mavs tank zone is really just a battle between NO and MEM. I'm pretty confident that NO will pass both DAL and MEM in this one. New Orleans is playing pretty well right now and actively trying to win.

The Mavs are "lucky" to somehow keep losing these clutch games. It's going to be a tough battle to hold off Memphis, but at this point I think we are only talking about the difference between the 6th and 7th spot. Memphis' roster is bad right now, also way worse than the Mavericks. I kind of think Memphis out-tanks the Mavs here, but let's see how it plays out. The Mavs have been more ethical than I would probably be, but maybe the basketball gods will reward that.

Anyways, the difference between Bottom 6 and 7 is about 5% less odds of jumping to Top 4. It is also 1 slot down in positioning assuming you don't jump. It's hard to say how much of a difference that really is, so I won't sweat it too much.

here are the odds:

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

5th and 6th are really similar for top 4.

Dallas probably ends up 6th with either top 4 or 7/8th pick.

I think the top 4 players are set in stone, then you have Flemings, Acuff, Wagler, Brown - so Mavs are essentially guaranteed to get one of those 4 guards if they finish 6th.

It's crucial we don't fall out of the top 8 with these prospects on the board:
Boozer
Dybantsa
Peterson
Wilson
Acuff
Wagler
Flemings
Brown

I think we'll comfortably finish with a bottom 7 record, but the odds of 2 teams behind us jumping up into the lottery and forcing our pick back to 9 is why we need to turbo tank to the 6th spot. I know Kidd and these players will never willingly lose, but the FO needs to take that choice out of their hands. Naji, Flagg, Christie, Klay and PJ need to be sent to Cancun. The Mavs NEED to hit on 1 of those top 8 guys.

Crazy that the difference between 8-9 almost makes this season pointless.

It's tough to say how much being top 8 ultimately matters. It is easy to get caught up in groupthink reading mock drafts. They tends to gloss over the potential weaknesses of some of these guys. Acuff's height may end up limiting his effectiveness in the NBA. Brown Jr.'s erratic play might mean he is just an inefficient shot chucker. Maybe someone like Philon or Burries ends up being better in the NBA than both of those guys. I don't think that is impossible. So, can't sweat the draft positioning too much.

Having said that, there is also no reason for the Mavs to not want to finish 6th with only 19 games left. It gives you a few more ping-pong balls and let's you get towards the front of the line in picking prospects assuming you don't win the lottery. Either way I think it is a guarantee that there will be multiple guys picked past the Mavs position who will end up being high level players. Because Nico is an idiot, it is imperative that the Mavs get something out of this draft. Yeah ideally an all star level talent, but at minimum they need a high level player. They won't be completely out of moves after this, but they will be limited for a while due to the pick situation.

I'll add that I think we need to be top 7.

More I think about Acuff, he's just so small and such a negative defensively… You have to be Tyrese Maxey in order to justify being that small and bad at defense. Maybe Acuff becomes something like Maxey, I'd just rather not be the organization that finds out.

He also probably can't play with Kyrie for long stretches, and I'd like the guy we draft to be able to plug and play with our current group. I realize that's short-sighted, it's just personal preference. I don't see how your 5 in the last few minutes of a close game can include two small guards who aren't strong defensively.

Didn't see your post before I posted and I agree. I know Acuff is the better player right now, but I'd almost rather have Philon or Burries. It's pretty rare for that size to pan out, especially if you aren't stuffing the stat sheet with steals. I really think Burries is a winning basketball player.

Who knows how things shake out over the next couple months as these guys play in the NCAAT and then get official measurements and athleticism scores at the combine. Maybe Acuff ends up being measured at 6'1" or 6'2" and falls down boards. A lot can change.

Edit: I think Brown will be fine. He was coming back from injury, and I hate his team around him. Supposedly he was awesome with Team USA U19 in the summer when he was on the floor with Dybantsa, Peat, and Morez Johnson.

M.C. Swag said:

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I'm completely bought in on Acuff. Talking with a guy in the scouting industry he thinks he's basically Dame Lillard with more strength and better passing. Has him 5th on his big board.

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Coach Cal guards typically do good in the league. He's probably the same height with more strength than Fox. He can shoot, score and pass. I have him above Brown. I don't think that he's so small as to get played off the court. And Dallas already has rim protection and lots of long wings that are good defenders, so even if he is smaller than would ideal, it probably isn't the end of the world.



Look at those quads. Strong base is important.

He's bigger than prime Kyrie.



I would worry more about size if he was in the 185 or smaller range. I think he is listed at 195. Trae is 164. Garland was 173.

I think teams are worried about size because it can be so exploitable, but if you have a strong base to hold your ground with against bigger players, you can be shorter and not be as easily exploited. But a guy like Garland, Trae, or Sheppard is just going to be exploited continually.

M.C. Swag said:

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I'm completely bought in on Acuff. Talking with a guy in the scouting industry he thinks he's basically Dame Lillard with more strength and better passing. Has him 5th on his big board.

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Damn lol what do I know... Having him ahead of Flemings is bold.

In my opinion, if anybody is going to be over Flemings, I'd have Wagler. Wagler's advanced metrics are superior to Acuff on both ends of the floor. I think Wagler is an awesome fit on the team too. Wagler could be Haliburton-ish, IMO.

Don't know if Mavs bros care, but Pablo is releasing his next olume on Kawhi tonight, three hours before Kawhi and the Clippers tip off against the Spurs. Also he is doing it at Sloane Nerd Conference, where Adam Silver is a speaker.

Pablo is ready to unveil new Kawhi Leonard evidence — live, onstage, at @SloanSportsConf.

And on our YouTube channel.

Today at 5:30pm ET. 🍎⌚ #SSAC26 pic.twitter.com/fstmeIvxdp

— Pablo Torre Finds Out (@pablofindsout) March 6, 2026

Cooper Flagg says he doesn’t really know much about Jason Kidd as a player

“I’m not extremely familiar. I know he’s a legend, but no. I didn’t watch J-Kidd a ton.”

(Via @MarcJSpears / h/t @TheNBABase ) pic.twitter.com/MPl6fYk4rW

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) March 6, 2026

He was in Kinder when Kidd won the title with Dirk.