Yes, I realize these cabins have been there many years and probably before the flood maps. However, it would seem that someone (I don't know who) should have required a plan that included evacuating all buildings in the flood zone, at the very least?

From what I understand as I've read, and I guess we'll find out more in the coming days/weeks/months, is that the plan was to move kids to the same elevation as these cabins (which they did- moved many to the rec center which I understand to be same elevation as these cabins but has a second story where they all moved to) and leave these ones to shelter in place (which they did, until it became evident that that wasn't going to work - and then attempted a highly dangerous, and obviously failed, mission to evacuate in high water…)

(But I really don't know much about really any of this so..)

Rattler12 said:

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Two observations.....

Why would a summer camp for kids have been built at the convergence of a major river and two creeks to start with?

Why would the youngest group of kids be housed in the cabins at the lowest elevation?

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The camp had senior hill where the oldest campers stayed. They were the highest but farthest away from camp amenities.

The youngest campers on the flats (7-9) were highest up near the rec hall, offices & dining hall. The cabins in the back closest to the river held the older campers (9+).

State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

Rattler12 said:

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Two observations.....

Why would a summer camp for kids have been built at the convergence of a major river and two creeks to start with?

Why would the youngest group of kids be housed in the cabins at the lowest elevation?

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They weren't housed at the lowest elevation. The cabins that were the lowest were evacuated to the rec hall. The rec hall was at the same elevation at the younger girls, which was a higher elevation.

I believe my 1st question was pretty clear. It's a dangerous place to build a summer camp for children no matter how cool it may be...

Walter E. Kurtz said:

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State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

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We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.

Just for reference regarding flood plains and elevation rules,

I built a Barndo down in Port Oconner about 5-6 years ago, in order to get a building permit from the county, you had to show your surveyed map/plan (on your lot ) to the flood control department for that county, once they know where you will be building a home, they look at the house elevation and tell you if can build there and tell you what elevation the ground floor can be. These regs have changed over the years, but I would bet things have changed in Kerr county over the years as well regarding building elevations and flood policies. In POC, you had to have the bottom floor at a minimum elevation or you would not get a building permit (Im not sure everyone followed these rules to be honest but we built at the county approved elevations or higher at a minimum)

I could see camp Mystic following building rules at the time of construction, however, if the flood plain rules changed over time (surely it has) then older camp houses may not meet current standards. Im not sure how this is handled once a tragedy like this occurs and you had camp houses meeting out of date standards? surely there was some type of grandfather clause on older buildings? This will all be very interesting how this is handled. Of course the evacuation plan is something totally separate from the actual buildings in place.

CollieLover1138 said:

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Just made an account as I have been lurking and I wanted to clarify something.

Mystic went through a process with FEMA in 2013 to take their buildings out of a floodplain because they were built on foundations. A surveyor goes out and measures the distance from the ground floor to the floodplain. Here's a link to the document. I don't know why I could find this but it isn't being reported in national or local media.

https://map1.msc.fema.gov/data/48/L/14-06-0124A-480419.pdf?LOC=03e7a058cff367b902241de73e8a1b86

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This would be the result of a LOMR denoting certain structures themselves are out of the floodway/floodplain. Hard to tell from this what specific structures it includes as we don't have the supporting exhibits and/or the numerical denotations for the buildings they used in said supporting exhibits. It's very likely and common that some structures are removed from the map an elevation certification by a surveyor while others can remain if they are found to be below BFE.

Dangerous maybe 500 years ago before Friday.
I'm sure there's plenty of evidence the Indians thought it was the perfect place.
People can second guess this forever. It was the perfect/worst rain situation. All the other tributaries had to stack up against each other.

fullback44 said:

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Just for reference regarding flood plains and elevation rules,

I built a Barndo down in Port Oconner about 5-6 years ago, in order to get a building permit from the county, you had to show your surveyed map/plan (on your lot ) to the flood control department for that county, once they know where you will be building a home, they look at the house elevation and tell you if can build there and tell you what elevation the ground floor can be. These regs have changed over the years, but I would bet things have changed in Kerr county over the years as well regarding building elevations and flood policies. In POC, you had to have the bottom floor at a minimum elevation or you would not get a building permit (Im not sure everyone followed these rules to be honest but we built at the county approved elevations or higher at a minimum)

I could see camp Mystic following building rules at the time of construction, however, if the flood plain rules changed over time (surely it has) then older camp houses may not meet current standards. Im not sure how this is handled once a tragedy like this occurs and you had camp houses meeting out of date standards? surely there was some type of grandfather clause on older buildings? This will all be very interesting how this is handled. Of course the evacuation plan is something totally seperate from the actual buildings in place.

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From the LOMR posted by another poster Mystic apparently did exactly this. Unclear which or if any buildings still remained after doing so. One thing to keep in mind FEMA maps and LOMR's are primarily for insurance purposes, not safety. If this map is issued and you have a lot of structures affected, and thus requiring flood insurance, it would behoove you to have as many removed as you can. Those still remaining don't have to be destroyed or moved, but you would just have to self insure them.

Secolobo said:

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Dangerous maybe 500 years ago before Friday.
I'm sure there's plenty of evidence the Indians thought it was the perfect place.
People can second guess this forever. It was the perfect/worst rain situation. All the other tributaries had to stack up against each other.

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Absolutely, this was the perfect storm for that camp area, you change a few things like amount of rain or shift where the rain fell and have it happen during the day and it probably has a different outcome. Basically, the worst possible conditions happened at night, not a good situation

Teslag said:

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CollieLover1138 said:

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Just made an account as I have been lurking and I wanted to clarify something.

Mystic went through a process with FEMA in 2013 to take their buildings out of a floodplain because they were built on foundations. A surveyor goes out and measures the distance from the ground floor to the floodplain. Here's a link to the document. I don't know why I could find this but it isn't being reported in national or local media.

https://map1.msc.fema.gov/data/48/L/14-06-0124A-480419.pdf?LOC=03e7a058cff367b902241de73e8a1b86

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This would be the result of a LOMR denoting certain structures themselves are out of the floodway/floodplain. Hard to tell from this what specific structures it includes as we don't have the supporting exhibits and/or the numerical denotations for the buildings they used in said supporting exhibits. It's very likely and common that some structures are removed from the map an elevation certification by a surveyor while others can remain if they are found to be below BFE.

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its like you are looking to shoot holes in it. It removes 15 buildings.

FM 949 said:

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Teslag said:

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CollieLover1138 said:

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Just made an account as I have been lurking and I wanted to clarify something.

Mystic went through a process with FEMA in 2013 to take their buildings out of a floodplain because they were built on foundations. A surveyor goes out and measures the distance from the ground floor to the floodplain. Here's a link to the document. I don't know why I could find this but it isn't being reported in national or local media.

https://map1.msc.fema.gov/data/48/L/14-06-0124A-480419.pdf?LOC=03e7a058cff367b902241de73e8a1b86

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This would be the result of a LOMR denoting certain structures themselves are out of the floodway/floodplain. Hard to tell from this what specific structures it includes as we don't have the supporting exhibits and/or the numerical denotations for the buildings they used in said supporting exhibits. It's very likely and common that some structures are removed from the map an elevation certification by a surveyor while others can remain if they are found to be below BFE.

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its like you are looking to shoot holes in it. It removes 15 buildings.

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I'm pointing out that a LOMR doesn't remove an entire camp from a floodplain/floodway, only specific structures.

sounds about right, I would think they built camp houses according to elevation / flood standards at the time. As rules and flood policy changes, your insurance will dictate what they will require to insure the older buildings. Its gonna be hard to prove Mystic did anything wrong on building locations and elevation policies, just my 2 cents on that

Now following evacuation plans and policies is something totally different. Someone asked the question as to whether someone at the camp was monitoring the weather and flood warnings? I think we will see this come out eventually.

By rough count on Google Earth, I counted almost 30 structures in the camp.

Would you do a LOMR for a shed? Let's use some logic here.

fullback44 said:

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sounds about right, I would think they built camp houses according to elevation / flood standards at the time. As rules and flood policy changes, your insurance will dictate what they will require to insure the older buildings. Its gonna be hard to prove Mystic did anything wrong on building locations and elevation policies, just my 2 cents on that

Now following evacuation plans and policies is something totally different. Someone asked the question as to whether someone at the camp was monitoring the weather and flood warnings? I think we will see this come out eventually.

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I'd agree with. And I want to be clear, I don't think they did anything totally wrong. But just looking at the flood map and flood limits, along with having to file a LOMR on many of your structures, should raise a massive red flag that there was a high potential for dangerous conditions here.

FM 949 said:

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Would you do a LOMR for a shed? Let's use some logic here.

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Depends on what's in it. I've seen ranchers/farmers attempt LOMRS for sheds because they want what's in it to be covered too. And if you're going to do the process for a few you might as well for all of it. Everything you include is something you can insure.

But I agree, not all 30 of them are habitable structures. But what 20 of them are? That still leaves 10. I'm simply saying we don't know without seeing the totality of the LOMR application.

and those 15 structures roughly line up with the number of buildings in the flats.

Insight from the OB thread.

Quote:

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Gmanoutdoors
10:15a, 7/5/25

AG



Some information from my wife who is directly in contact with some Mystic staff and was once office staff:

She says that the map is relatively correct. Twins I, Twins II, and Bubble Inn are the highest elevation cabins along with Giggle Box and Wiggle Inn on the portion of the campground called the "Flats." They are next to the central office intentionally, and at the same elevations, such that those buildings are the last to need evacuation.

The elevation of the aforementioned cabins, the Office, and the Rec Hall are all 30-35 feet above the normal water level. There is no precedent, even in the '87 flood, for water to come up to the level of the Office/Bubble Inn/Twins. She found from a friend that the plan was likely to keep those campers in place while lower elevation cabins successfully evacuated to the Rec Hall (as evidenced by the photo of the older campers walking in the rain towards the Rec Hall). The waters then rose far beyond what was ever planned for and there was no more time to evacuate the three youngest cabins. Allegedly Dick drove his truck through the floodwaters to try and reach them once they realized it was cresting the hill they are situated on. Then the flood wave came. Even though they are limestone structures, someone told her an entire cabin, Twins or Bubble, may have been washed away with campers inside. For that to happen, the flood waters have to have been 35+ feet above normal. A truly unprecedented situation.

There is still no official word on Dick Eastland being alive. Everyone she is in contact with is tight-lipped. She hypothesizes they are waiting to find the missing girls before drawing attention to the loss of one of the camp directors.

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Quote:

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Thanks for the update. Does the camp have 24/7 staff or folks on night shift?

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Yes. There is a night shift guard who is on the clock until 6am and would have been able to notify the main office of the emergency. At 2am they were already evacuating lower-elevation cabins containing the 10-13 year old age groups before the flooding had started. The flood wave happened at 4am.

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Quote:

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To further clarify. The Rec hall is at roughly the same elevation as the cabins that have girls missing. However it is a 2 story building, which makes it the site for evacuation. My wife says it's a major blessing that the hall did not fall down or wash away as this would've been catastrophic. Water got well into first floor of the rec hall. There is a creek that divides this part of camp from the main road and the higher banks of the river. This severely handicapped the ability for anyone to reach safer, higher ground. "I have to re-emphasize that a flood of this magnitude and height is unprecedented and unbelievable. Three stories worth of safety was between the river and the camp's main evacuation zone. It's unfathomable." - direct quote from my wife

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Teslag said:

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fullback44 said:

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sounds about right, I would think they built camp houses according to elevation / flood standards at the time. As rules and flood policy changes, your insurance will dictate what they will require to insure the older buildings. Its gonna be hard to prove Mystic did anything wrong on building locations and elevation policies, just my 2 cents on that

Now following evacuation plans and policies is something totally different. Someone asked the question as to whether someone at the camp was monitoring the weather and flood warnings? I think we will see this come out eventually.

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I'd agree with. And I want to be clear, I don't think they did anything totally wrong. But just looking at the flood map and flood limits, along with having to file a LOMR on many of your structures, should raise a massive red flag that there was a high potential for dangerous conditions here.

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Yeah this could be true, I don't know enough about this location to comment but it sure seems like a rather risky area to build a camp. But then again, they went many years without this type of tragedy. I will be curious to see how this all flushes out over time.

Basically risky area vs following building codes at time of construction on various buildings

More insight from the OB.

Quote:

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jrrhouston98
11:23a, 7/5/25

AG


My niece sent me this, her friend is a counselor in Bubble Inn and is still missing. If I need to delete, please let me know.

Some more clarity on what happened at Mystic

What we know from a flat perspective is that the flooding started to hit but it was the middle of the night. Dick was coming down with Edward in cars trying to get campers to a safer spot either the new camp or somewhere else. He was driving back-and-forth and back-and-forth and two cabins made it to sky high and the rest of the camp made it to the new camp. The campers not accounted for were bubble inn and the twins cabins. Dick was driving to bubble in to get the girls and was loading them in his truck when the truck got swept away. Libby Liuzzi was in a twins cabin and they couldn't open the door and so she smashed the windows and we're sending her girls out to get to safety. I know she's OK and half of her cabin is OK. Half of Harrisson Hall is gone. Some girls on the flats went to cozy with the big three and some girls then went to rec Hall because the flooding was increasing, and as it got higher and higher, they went to the second floor of rec hall and they were with the younger campers and the water would hit them while they were on that second floor because of the waves crashing in from the floods.

I know the girls in cozy were first holding onto the poles because the flood waters were so intense, but then it got to their heads to the point where they weren't gonna be able to breathe so they had to climb to get to the roof. Elizabeth Sweet took off her shirt at some point and made a rope to get Rachel farhiootie onto the roof. The water was over the roof, but they were just clutching onto the roof the whole time. Cars are piled on top of each other. There was an entire pileup of just so many cars. Christiana said that it looked unreal. From the hill, they saw a car that wasby the art hut and one that was by the bridge.

- Meredith Martin, when the flooding hit, went to dick and tweety's house and smashed the window and went and saved Tweety

It's now a recovery mission and no longer a rescue mission. "

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It was first established in 1926.

CollieLover1138 said:

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and those 15 structures roughly line up with the number of buildings in the flats.

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This isn't shown. And I stand corrected. There are over 40 habitable structures located in Camp Mystic according to property records (and the deed to which the LOMR refers). There's no way to know what 15 structures this LOMR applies to without the supporting exhibits.

https://esearch.kerrcad.org/Property/View/19022?year=2025&ownerId=588726

We can use logic though but you are ignoring that.

that's fair. i'm just saying that there are roughly 15 or so structures in the area where the girls lost lived in.

FM 949 said:

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We can use logic though but you are ignoring that.

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I'm not. I just shared a link that shows over 40 habitable structures on site. These aren't sheds.

The posts above explain where the girls were...

Teslag said:

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FM 949 said:

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We can use logic though but you are ignoring that.

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I'm not. I just shared a link that shows over 40 habitable structures on site. These aren't sheds.

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its 40 structures on the combined parcel for both Mystic camps. can we use some common sense here?

FM 949 said:

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Teslag said:

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FM 949 said:

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We can use logic though but you are ignoring that.

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I'm not. I just shared a link that shows over 40 habitable structures on site. These aren't sheds.

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its 40 structures on the combined parcel for both Mystic camps. can we use some common sense here?

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Yes, and the LOMR references the entire property, not just one camp or the other. In addition, the southern part of Camp Mystic also had numerous cabins and structures located in the floodplain which would neccessitate a LOMR as well as you can see below. Everything in Zone A and Zone AE requires a certification.



There are way more than 15 structures, some obviously cabins, that are in the floodplain/floodway and subject to that LOMR.

And it's worth nothing, the cabins these girls were in weren't just in the blue shaded Zone A or Zone AE floodplains they were in the red/blue shaded floodway.

the second camp wasn't in existence in 2013.