We will be fine. A lot happened in 15 minutes. Life or death decisions right there. God was with us.
Camp Mystic and Guadalupe updates
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Last: 6 days ago by BadMoonRisin
We were in a tree at about 3:30 am. Water receded by 5:30. It rose very quickly and fell just as quickly. Just downstream from Mystic.
Yep, Steve Browne nailed this in his post on Monday, which his follow up post (that you quoted) referenced. Just amazes me that a retired meteorologist got this correct over everyone else.
The exact same thing happened to a family from Edna, TX in 2015. By happenstance, the grandfather woke up in the middle of the night a sound, and found the river to be rapidly rising, and harrowingly got the family out in the Knick of time.
"Gimme a diablo sandwhich and a dr. pepper...to go"
Good deal. Glad you are OK.chilimuybueno said:
We will be fine. A lot happened in 15 minutes. Life or death decisions right there. God was with us.
chilimuybueno said:
My wife and daughter and I barely made it. Had to climb trees to escape the flood. House badly damaged. It came up so fast hard to believe. If I hadn't woken up when I did, I wouldn't be typing this. Ours was the last house on the river just before Mystic. I am still shaken
Wild. Glad you were able to escape with your family.
chilimuybueno said:
We will be fine. A lot happened in 15 minutes. Life or death decisions right there. God was with us.
Thanks for sharing and so glad you and your family are safe.
Buford T. Justice said:
I feel terrible about what has happened again.
Can they not implement a warning system/siren alert once x amount of rain falls, to tell people to move fast to higher ground? I was friends with one of the folks that perished last time, along with their family, and it is completely heartbreaking to know that others are now dealing with the same loss.
In saying that, I completely understand that these terrible events happen so fast, but can nothing be done?
It would make more sense to prohibit building habitable structures in areas that can flood. I get it, this area is one of our state's natural treasures, and it's beautiful. But these Hill Country waterways can turn from picturesque to raging torrents in a matter of minutes. Unless you've lived there, people don't understand that the Hill Country is basically rock with rapid elevation changes. If you dump a bunch of water in the wrong spot, it has nowhere to go but downhill, and it will do so very quickly. It can happen so fast that warning systems may not be fast enough.
Cyprian said:
Yes, it sounds bad... We have church friends with a daughter at Camp Mystic, she is Ok thank God, but some were missing last i heard (few hours ago)
We always seem to wait for tragedy to make change. Why we can't be proactive is a mystery.DDub74 said:
I've been coming to the hill country for 44 years and agree that by now there should be technology available to prevent people from getting swept away from flood waters even if at night. I watched the weather all night on my phone and knew at 2:30
Am it was an issue so checked our Frio river to make sure water wasn't rising. I have experienced to many floods (Memorial Day, 1987 comfort, and countless other ones) to know waters can rise very fast in hill country. And I don't even live there full time. This will
Lead to a lot of changes in warming systems but sad that so many kids had to die when it was preventable in my opinion. After years of multi million dollar lawsuits and blah blah blah they will enact a warning system as it will happen again guaranteed in next ten years if not sooner.
Man, so sad. My son was at Stewart last month and my 10 year old daughter was supposed to be at mystic last term but tore her meniscus. I would have just picked her up last week. My wife went to heart of the hills and is mourning the camp owner, Jane Ragsdale.
Owlagdad said:Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:
Agree. Tornado horns around the river? Helicopters? Gotten something upstream to set off alerts, especially for night time events. It's kind of insane at this point there is no warning systems.
Did anyone get phone warnings?
Agree. And knowing area is prone to flash flooding, could camp have an awake CQ that could monitor and have procedures to head to higher ground?
When we camp, we always take the side of precaution, even if means losing sleep and getting kids scared. We head for higher ground.
This is what I was wondering. We have good friends who sent their kids to Mystic years ago . We were not living in the area at the time. You know this is going to happen albeit infrequently so how do you not have weather radar, an overnight person, routine monitoring of weather, something? There should be a proactive evacuation plan at these camps.
MANY UNACCOUNTED FOR | https://t.co/rsPOZKZuob
— News 4 San Antonio (@News4SA) July 5, 2025
At least 24 people have died in catastrophic flooding that swept through Kerr County early Friday morning, Sheriff Larry Leitha confirmed. pic.twitter.com/NH56ZtGoFO
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) risk of flooding rain today. “Slight” risk or level 2 of 4 of flash flooding Austin area just into Bexar County & some of Hill Country.
— Chris Suchan (@ChrisSuchanWOAI) July 5, 2025
4:50am: Heaviest rain is in Austin area now w/ a few showers developing east of I-35. Chance of… pic.twitter.com/JIm8D6h42I
They are releasing a lot of water down through/into LBJ etc. Total flow rates had approached that of the Mississippi.
Heads should roll in Kerrville? Like people should be fired? Really?
In your opinion, what should happen, and who should it happen to?
This was a horrible event that occurred at 5 am. Maybe everyone gets out if it happens at 5 pm. Blaming Kerrville officials for this seems harsh to me.
In your opinion, what should happen, and who should it happen to?
This was a horrible event that occurred at 5 am. Maybe everyone gets out if it happens at 5 pm. Blaming Kerrville officials for this seems harsh to me.
One day at a time.
Yeah it's real tough to blame city officials when the forecast had been for 4-8 inches and they got 14 in deluge downpours over a brief period of time. I'm not sure some of those camps are even within city limits, anyway. Sure, one or two meteorologists called it correctly but not too many from what I saw, and we can't evacuate everyone every single time a weatherman says something is scary. Ultimately, if there is a 'substantial' risk of an overnight flood people need to get kids away from the rivers. Full stop.
Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.
Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.
The Llano River in Llano, TX might be nearing its crest as the flow has leveled off at a whopping 125,000 cubic feet per second. It was flowing near 500 cubic feet per second only hours ago. Major catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country today. 7/4/25 #TXwx @TxStormChasers… pic.twitter.com/qIHHsgRzCL
— Clint Hendricks IV (@Clint_wx) July 4, 2025
nortex97 said:
Yeah it's real tough to blame city officials when the forecast had been for 4-8 inches and they got 14 in deluge downpours over a brief period of time. I'm not sure some of those camps are even within city limits, anyway. Sure, one or two meteorologists called it correctly but not too many from what I saw, and we can't evacuate everyone every single time a weatherman says something is scary. Ultimately, if there is a 'substantial' risk of an overnight flood people need to get kids away from the rivers. Full stop.
Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.The Llano River in Llano, TX might be nearing its crest as the flow has leveled off at a whopping 125,000 cubic feet per second. It was flowing near 500 cubic feet per second only hours ago. Major catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country today. 7/4/25 #TXwx @TxStormChasers… pic.twitter.com/qIHHsgRzCL
— Clint Hendricks IV (@Clint_wx) July 4, 2025
Awake all night every time it rains a lot?
I blame this one on Mother Nature.
Horrible tragedy. We know people with family still missing. Horrible.
One day at a time.
Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.
nortex97 said:
Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.
It unexpectedly rose 25 feet in 45 minutes. At 5 am. When less than 8 inches was the forecast.
I'm not blaming anyone for this. And i have family of friends still missing. Some long-time TexAgs posters have family missing. And they don't seem to be blaming anyone. See awesome thread on Outdoors board. Very informative.
Still wondering whose heads should roll in Kerrville. That comment is what started this portion of the discussion.
One day at a time.
My heart is absolutely broken for the families and friends of missing people. When the waters recede, we should plan a coordinated clean up / helping crew.
nortex97 said:
Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.
Using what tools?
A watch was issued around 1 pm Thursday.
The original flash flood warning came out at 118 am and then upgraded to the flash flood emergency with that 4 am product that was posted.
The original flash flood warning came out at 118 am and then upgraded to the flash flood emergency with that 4 am product that was posted.
Squadron7 said:nortex97 said:
Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.
Using what tools?
Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.
I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.
Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…
This is what I'm thinking. I grew up in the hill country. Have play areas down by the river for the day and evening and lodging on higher ground. This tears you up to hear let alone live through it.HTownAg98 said:Buford T. Justice said:
I feel terrible about what has happened again.
Can they not implement a warning system/siren alert once x amount of rain falls, to tell people to move fast to higher ground? I was friends with one of the folks that perished last time, along with their family, and it is completely heartbreaking to know that others are now dealing with the same loss.
In saying that, I completely understand that these terrible events happen so fast, but can nothing be done?
It would make more sense to prohibit building habitable structures in areas that can flood. I get it, this area is one of our state's natural treasures, and it's beautiful. But these Hill Country waterways can turn from picturesque to raging torrents in a matter of minutes. Unless you've lived there, people don't understand that the Hill Country is basically rock with rapid elevation changes. If you dump a bunch of water in the wrong spot, it has nowhere to go but downhill, and it will do so very quickly. It can happen so fast that warning systems may not be fast enough.
AgPrognosticator said:Squadron7 said:nortex97 said:
Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.
Using what tools?
Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.
I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.
Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…
There is nothing out there to predict flash flooding of a river rising 26 feet in 45 minutes and not one person predicted the rainfall totals that have happened and currently happening.
You have about a ten minute window to get out of something that can't be predicted.
First, I consider this an example of an invalid appeal to authority. You may, as I do, find that thread informative yet it is also full of people with loved ones missing/deceased, and I am not going to assign any figment of blame or suggest remedial policy actions there. Second, your friends and family being missing adds absolutely zero to your credibility/status as a subject expert on any of these topics, any more than your having once apparently resided in Lakeway does. It's akin to nurses etc. claiming people should wear a mask around in public during Fauci's reign of terror, and people considering them experts because they work in a medical field/facility, and their viewpoint deserves more sympathy/authority as a result.aginlakeway said:nortex97 said:
Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.
It unexpectedly rose 25 feet in 45 minutes. At 5 am. When less than 8 inches was the forecast.
I'm not blaming anyone for this. And i have family of friends still missing. Some long-time TexAgs posters have family missing. And they don't seem to be blaming anyone. See awesome thread on Outdoors board. Very informative.
Still wondering whose heads should roll in Kerrville. That comment is what started this portion of the discussion.
The forecast accurately predicted a deluge upstream of those camps (on already soaked ground/rocks), and while the amount the river would rise by was not clear (no one anticipated the 5 am 45 minute 25 foot rise), it was predicted to be a dangerous situation. This was not a surprise storm. An accurate meteorological prediction was noted on this thread early on, or the OB one.
The camp adult staff apparently chose not to monitor the situation via eye site/checks or via radio/communications otherwise overnight. I don't think it's fair to say 'poor cell coverage' and 'they needed some sleep' are acceptable answers when dozens are missing and many more barely awoke to cling to rafters until the wall of their structures blew out etc. I don't consider that acceptable risk management, and radio/cellular communications are issues that can actually be managed today, this isn't some 1876 movie/TV set. You can again disagree with me freely, and I don't claim to be a camp management/safety expert, I just am not willing to cede to your point that their overnight 6-8 hours of sleep was appropriately managed given the situation(s) and responsibilities they bore.
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a
This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.
This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.
45-70Ag said:AgPrognosticator said:Squadron7 said:nortex97 said:
Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.
Using what tools?
Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.
I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.
Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…
There is nothing out there to predict flash flooding of a river rising 26 feet in 45 minutes and not one person predicted the rainfall totals that have happened and currently happening.
You have about a ten minute window to get out of something that can't be predicted.
Perfectly said. Sometimes things happen that are just horrible accidents and no one's fault.
One day at a time.
My point was and is that heads don't need to roll. That was the post I was replying to. A poster said heads in Kerrville need to roll.
Agree to disagree.
Thanks. Gig 'em.
Agree to disagree.
Thanks. Gig 'em.
One day at a time.
Tex100 said:
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a
This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.
This is the correct answer. As someone who is a CFM, and has worked in civil engineering, both private and with USACE, you won't win the fight against water, especially in those areas. The rational method and mannings equation are always undefeated and when the factors are aligned there's not a system that can warn in time.
The only real solution is to not build where it floods. Always has been. But I've made a living for 20 years trying to help people delay the odds of the eventual certainty in flood plains.
Pr at least need to add flash flood sirens.Tex100 said:
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a
This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.
Teslag said:Tex100 said:
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a
This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.
This is the correct answer. As someone who is a CFM, and has worked in civil engineering, both private and with USACE, you won't win the fight against water, especially in those areas. The rational method and mannings equation are always undefeated and when the factors are aligned there's not a system that can warn in time.
The only real solution is to not build where it floods. Always has been. But I've made a living for 20 years trying to help people delay the odds of the eventual certainty in flood plains.
Agree. No way to warn abou this ... other than to not be there.
One day at a time.
This truly is a reminder that nothing in life is guaranteed and that one can never be too cautious.aginlakeway said:nortex97 said:
Yeah it's real tough to blame city officials when the forecast had been for 4-8 inches and they got 14 in deluge downpours over a brief period of time. I'm not sure some of those camps are even within city limits, anyway. Sure, one or two meteorologists called it correctly but not too many from what I saw, and we can't evacuate everyone every single time a weatherman says something is scary. Ultimately, if there is a 'substantial' risk of an overnight flood people need to get kids away from the rivers. Full stop.
Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.The Llano River in Llano, TX might be nearing its crest as the flow has leveled off at a whopping 125,000 cubic feet per second. It was flowing near 500 cubic feet per second only hours ago. Major catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country today. 7/4/25 #TXwx @TxStormChasers… pic.twitter.com/qIHHsgRzCL
— Clint Hendricks IV (@Clint_wx) July 4, 2025
Awake all night every time it rains a lot?
I blame this one on Mother Nature.
Horrible tragedy. We know people with family still missing. Horrible.
I pray for the missing and the lost.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Ugh I know 2 Aggies who's kids were there
Tex100 said:
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a
This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.
Hawaii shores have Tsunami sirens. Similar as you have minutes to react. How hard would it be to do something similar at a summercamp if it's happened before? Warnings went out, it sounds like they sadly reacted too late. I read the director was swept away in a cabin while trying to get kids out, but died in the flood. Problem with the hill country is it can get really bad really quick, literally everyone knows that in the area.
I read that so much of what happened could have been avoided had people just not built in a lot of those areas. What's the shame is the young lives lost because of the hubris, or flat out greed, of others.Teslag said:Tex100 said:
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a
This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.
This is the correct answer. As someone who is a CFM, and has worked in civil engineering, both private and with USACE, you won't win the fight against water, especially in those areas. The rational method and mannings equation are always undefeated and when the factors are aligned there's not a system that can warn in time.
The only real solution is to not build where it floods. Always has been. But I've made a living for 20 years trying to help people delay the odds of the eventual certainty in flood plains.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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