Camp Mystic and Guadalupe updates

219,547 Views | 848 Replies | Last: 10 days ago by BadMoonRisin
IslanderAg04
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No Spin Ag said:

Teslag said:

Tex100 said:

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a


This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.


This is the correct answer. As someone who is a CFM, and has worked in civil engineering, both private and with USACE, you won't win the fight against water, especially in those areas. The rational method and mannings equation are always undefeated and when the factors are aligned there's not a system that can warn in time.

The only real solution is to not build where it floods. Always has been. But I've made a living for 20 years trying to help people delay the odds of the eventual certainty in flood plains.
I read that so much of what happened could have been avoided had people just not built in a lot of those areas. What's the shame is the young lives lost because of the hubris, or flat out greed, of others.




Droughts have made people complacent as the water ways have been so low. Same thing is happenning in the spicewood area.
aginlakeway
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No Spin Ag said:

Teslag said:

Tex100 said:

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a


This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.


This is the correct answer. As someone who is a CFM, and has worked in civil engineering, both private and with USACE, you won't win the fight against water, especially in those areas. The rational method and mannings equation are always undefeated and when the factors are aligned there's not a system that can warn in time.

The only real solution is to not build where it floods. Always has been. But I've made a living for 20 years trying to help people delay the odds of the eventual certainty in flood plains.
I read that so much of what happened could have been avoided had people just not built in a lot of those areas. What's the shame is the young lives lost because of the hubris, or flat out greed, of others.




Who was greedy in this case?
One day at a time.
jopatura
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aginlakeway said:

Heads should roll in Kerrville? Like people should be fired? Really?

In your opinion, what should happen, and who should it happen to?

This was a horrible event that occurred at 5 am. Maybe everyone gets out if it happens at 5 pm. Blaming Kerrville officials for this seems harsh to me.


Kerrville didn't become underwater until closer to 6:30am depending on where you were on the river. The whole thing started west of Camp Mystic where it was even more rural - not sure there was much that could be done there. Hunt had no warning and likely not much opportunity for warning even with monitors.

The emergency manager in Kerrville said he didn't think things were that bad because it wasn't raining at 3:30-4am while he was running along the river. Kerrville didn't start doing anything until 5:34 am when the NWS alert included them. If they had started to get people to high ground at 4:20am, I think a lot of people in Kerrville would have been saved. It's the middle of the night but they had to have known that water was coming downstream. Another hour would have been priceless, especially for the RV parks in the city.

I'm not sure why the NWS didn't include Kerrville in the 4:20am warning - they had to know the water was heading that way. Questions that should be asked - why didn't the NWS include Kerrville, whose decision was that? Did Kerrville OEM/City Manager play any role in that?
aginlakeway
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So he should be fired? How will that help anything? Other than keep another qualified person from wanting that job?

Agree to disagree. I don't think anyone's head should roll because of this tragic accident.
One day at a time.
Kvetch
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It's easy to Monday morning quarterback. Nobody benefits from trying to parse blame on a flooding event that occurred in the middle of the night and far exceeded forecasted predictions.

Not every tragedy needs a scapegoat. Just pray for those affected.
aginlakeway
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Kvetch said:

It's easy to Monday morning quarterback. Nobody benefits from trying to parse blame on a flooding event that occurred in the middle of the night and far exceeded forecasted predictions.

Not every tragedy needs a scapegoat. Just pray for those affected.


Very well said.
One day at a time.
Dan Scott
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Sometimes **** happens. No explanation needed.

Things suck now because after every tragedy we all go "Never again" and implement a bunch of safeguards that dilute the experience.
flashplayer
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I agree that no one needs to be assigned blame in a punitive sense based on what is known at this point, but I also think we should use this as a learning opportunity and we should be looking to enhance safety along those rivers to try and save lives in the future. Those camps need to take a hard look at their setups and consider whether they should house kids on ground that has any potential at all for flooding.
fordmd
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AgPrognosticator said:

Squadron7 said:

nortex97 said:

Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.


Using what tools?


Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…




As our cousin has to write her husband's obituary ( Mystic's camp director who passed away trying to save little girls) and contact the families of missing their children, I dread that she will have to endure the cynics and blame gamers.

Hurting people are reading these posts for news, please keep your " all knowing" opinion to your self.
Prayers appreciated for Tweety Eastland , her family, her campers, her counselors, her staff.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
one safe place
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I woke yesterday with plans to build my wife four large planter boxes and had purchased the materials the day before, thinking the lumberyard in our small town might be closed on Independence Day, that's the kind of people they are. I got my project underway and was about half way done when I found out about the flooding and my wife told me that a family from our small church had not been heard from. Both of my daughters had been trying to call them. A husband and wife and two sons, their ages are 5 and a year and a half. Their daughter was at another camp and is safe. Supposed to have been picked up by her family today to go home.

Really close friends of all of my children, especially the two girls and some of my grandchildren were very close. Same soccer team, each others birthday parties attended by the whole lot of them, crawfish boils, etc. This family had the need for a helping hand when they first moved here, and the church folks and community rose to the occasion and they put down roots and became part of the crew. Recent health issues by the mom necessitated others rising to the occasion once again. Not that that makes anyone a hero, nor wanting or needing a pat on the back, but just shows the closeness folks have for other folks. A lot of people do that.

I am old and one thing I look out for is when there is some sort of get together that included food, I will volunteer to hold any really small child, so that the parents don't have to eat in shifts. And to give them a small window, even if only a half hour or hour to interact with friends without wrestling with a baby. Again, it is something many of us do, both my daughters do it all the time. I have done it for this family's youngest boy. I remember this one time the father kept coming over to where I sat holding his baby son and asking if he wanted me to take him. I could sense he was hoping I'd say no, I am fine, so he could get back to mingling. I told him we were fine like we were and to go enjoy himself.

The thought of all that weighed heavily on me all afternoon and into the night. We didn't have much of a get together for Independence Day, our girls just wanted to be home, waiting on word, and hopefully good news. As I was checking Facebook and this forum this morning, I got a text they had found the body of the husband, they are still searching for the rest of the family.

As bad as this has impacted me, I cannot imagine those, and those of you, who have family missing from this flooding. My heart goes out to you all and I pray that your loved one or loved ones are found and are alive and safe.

I keep having thoughts about this father trying to save his wife and family and being unable to do so.

If this is deemed a derail or inappropriate, just delete it, if necessitates a ban, go for it. Guess I just needed to ramble.
dermdoc
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Kvetch said:

It's easy to Monday morning quarterback. Nobody benefits from trying to parse blame on a flooding event that occurred in the middle of the night and far exceeded forecasted predictions.

Not every tragedy needs a scapegoat. Just pray for those affected.


My 8 y/o great niece is missing from Camp Mystic and I agree. This is not the time to throw stones. Just pray and love.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
malenurse
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chilimuybueno said:

My wife and daughter and I barely made it. Had to climb trees to escape the flood. House badly damaged. It came up so fast hard to believe. If I hadn't woken up when I did, I wouldn't be typing this. Ours was the last house on the river just before Mystic. I am still shaken
Damn Chili, that is horrible. But, I am sure glad to hear you're ok.
The last thing I want to do is hurt you. But, it's still on the list.
Mrs. FishrCoAg
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jopatura said:

aginlakeway said:

Heads should roll in Kerrville? Like people should be fired? Really?

In your opinion, what should happen, and who should it happen to?

This was a horrible event that occurred at 5 am. Maybe everyone gets out if it happens at 5 pm. Blaming Kerrville officials for this seems harsh to me.


Kerrville didn't become underwater until closer to 6:30am depending on where you were on the river. The whole thing started west of Camp Mystic where it was even more rural - not sure there was much that could be done there. Hunt had no warning and likely not much opportunity for warning even with monitors.

The emergency manager in Kerrville said he didn't think things were that bad because it wasn't raining at 3:30-4am while he was running along the river. Kerrville didn't start doing anything until 5:34 am when the NWS alert included them. If they had started to get people to high ground at 4:20am, I think a lot of people in Kerrville would have been saved. It's the middle of the night but they had to have known that water was coming downstream. Another hour would have been priceless, especially for the RV parks in the city.

I'm not sure why the NWS didn't include Kerrville in the 4:20am warning - they had to know the water was heading that way. Questions that should be asked - why didn't the NWS include Kerrville, whose decision was that? Did Kerrville OEM/City Manager play any role in that?


In a few days, we will find out what happened and who did or didn't act. Blaming the city or the NWS is easy to go now, but honestly, premature at best.

I remember a few years ago when the Blanco River flood that killed multiple folks in NB and Wimberley. Everyone said the same thing, "why didn't the NWS know that the wall of water was coming?" Turns out, because the sensors that monitored the water were washed out by the wall of water that did come.

Nim Kidd did himself no favors during the presser last night blaming the NWS. They only have so much funding and so many tools at their disposal to be able to predict the weather. All of these tools cost money not only to operate but to maintain.

Pray that our leaders learn from such tragedies. Pray for those families who are missing loved ones or are planning funerals for their babies.
akaggie05
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Can almost guarantee that the NWS doesn't consult with city managers on whether or not to issue alerts for [insert any severe weather mode here]. They issue alerts based on what the NWS meteorologists in the regional offices are seeing and predicting. The local governments then receive those alerts and act accordingly based on plans for each county/city/etc.

This discussion of heads needing to roll in Kerrville is one of the weirdest things I've ever seen on TA, especially this early in the game.
Squadron7
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bradtheag said:

Man, so sad. My son was at Stewart last month and my 10 year old daughter was supposed to be at mystic last term but tore her meniscus. I would have just picked her up last week. My wife went to heart of the hills and is mourning the camp owner, Jane Ragsdale.

Friend of mine is a relative of Jane's. The word is that her camp was between sessions (thankfully) but there were some counselors there still and she was out checking on them.

Edit To Add Update Link: Beloved camp director killed in Hill Country flooding NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth
85aggie777
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dermdoc said:

My 8 y/o great niece is missing from Camp Mystic and I agree. This is not the time to throw stones. Just pray and love.
I have said multiple prayers for you and all involved since yesterday Dermdoc. Praying hard there is still hope to find the missing alive. I am so sorry that you and your family are having to go through this unimaginable fear. God bless you all.
WBBQ74
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I am sure the legal vultures are circling the area. Waiting to feed.
IslanderAg04
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dermdoc said:

Kvetch said:

It's easy to Monday morning quarterback. Nobody benefits from trying to parse blame on a flooding event that occurred in the middle of the night and far exceeded forecasted predictions.

Not every tragedy needs a scapegoat. Just pray for those affected.


My 8 y/o great niece is missing from Camp Mystic and I agree. This is not the time to throw stones. Just pray and love.


Sorry to hear that. Praying they find her ok. My director lives out in dipping, and his daughters have gone to camp Mystic for years. His daughters are all older, but this is hitting pretty hard as he knew the director. Just an all around terrible situation.
Squadron7
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Yikes.

Squadron7
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IslanderAg04 said:

dermdoc said:

Kvetch said:

It's easy to Monday morning quarterback. Nobody benefits from trying to parse blame on a flooding event that occurred in the middle of the night and far exceeded forecasted predictions.

Not every tragedy needs a scapegoat. Just pray for those affected.


My 8 y/o great niece is missing from Camp Mystic and I agree. This is not the time to throw stones. Just pray and love.


Sorry to hear that. Praying they find her ok. My director lives out in dipping, and his daughters have gone to camp Mystic for years. His daughters are all older, but this is hitting pretty hard as he knew the director. Just an all around terrible situation.

I've always sort of known it, but these Texas summer camps have connected so many, many people over the years. This event is sending shockwaves through communities.
Squadron7
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IslanderAg04 said:

No Spin Ag said:

Teslag said:

Tex100 said:

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a


This has happened before. Need to rethink camp locations.


This is the correct answer. As someone who is a CFM, and has worked in civil engineering, both private and with USACE, you won't win the fight against water, especially in those areas. The rational method and mannings equation are always undefeated and when the factors are aligned there's not a system that can warn in time.

The only real solution is to not build where it floods. Always has been. But I've made a living for 20 years trying to help people delay the odds of the eventual certainty in flood plains.
I read that so much of what happened could have been avoided had people just not built in a lot of those areas. What's the shame is the young lives lost because of the hubris, or flat out greed, of others.




Droughts have made people complacent as the water ways have been so low. Same thing is happenning in the spicewood area.

The camps have been in families for generations. They know this area as well as anyone ever will.

Nature just upped the game.

Urban Country Boy
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Heavenly Father,

We come before You with heavy hearts, lifting up the children in the floods. We pray for Divine protection over each one, that they may be found safe and brought back to theirs families. Guide the hands and hearts of the rescuers. Grant them strength, wisdom and success in their mission.

Lord, in this time of catastrophe, be the refuge for all affected. Restore what has been broken, provide for those that have lost everything, and let Your love shine through the darkness of this tragedy.

In your name, Jesus Christ, we pray.

Amen.
The Chair
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For those on here who were questioning the staffs at the campsites and blaming them for not being up or ready or prepared and generally already finding them at fault without actually knowing what happened, there is a good description on page 17 of the OB thread outlining what actually happened at the campsites. They had a plan and executed it. But the water was biblical.

ABATTBQ11
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Reading that is hard. The cabins with the missing girls were the highest ones there, and over 35' above the normal river level, with no precedent of water ever getting that high. They were the last to be evacuated because it was assumed they were above any danger.
The Chair
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Yep. It was all probably going to plan until the wave hit.
Squadron7
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Reading that is hard. The cabins with the missing girls were the highest ones there, and over 35' above the normal river level, with no precedent of water ever getting that high. They were the last to be evacuated because it was assumed they were above any danger.

Is it possible to post some of that here for those of us without access?
The Chair
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It's page 17 on the thread from the outdoors board.

Would copy and paste but my iPad doesn't like doing that.
Squadron7
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Sea Speed
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One of my daughters classmates is missing.
redcrayon
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Outdoors Board
kb2001
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Squadron7 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Reading that is hard. The cabins with the missing girls were the highest ones there, and over 35' above the normal river level, with no precedent of water ever getting that high. They were the last to be evacuated because it was assumed they were above any danger.

Is it possible to post some of that here for those of us without access?
https://texags.com/forums/34/topics/3548389/17
Squadron7
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redcrayon said:

Outdoors Board

Apologies....I thought OB was OrangeBloods. They have people going through the same thing.

2wealfth Man
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San Gabriel and Guadalupe Rivers in flood again this morning.



AgDotCom
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As someone who has vacationed on the Frio River for 34 years, I agree word for word with Brazos Dog.

There is no disrespect made toward victims. It's not inappropriate to bring it up because the impact is eroded over time as months and years dull the impactful memories and urgency fades from the warnings. And worse, the critics and scoffers enjoy popularity as they laugh at others for being worry-worts, further emasculating common sense. I've been derided for this myself, and for my healthy respect for lightning.

On the Frio, if we have heavy rain in our immediate area, even 1-3 inches, we move to higher ground, no questions asked, if we're not staying there already. If at night, if we hear rain or thunder at all I stay up, ready to move, until a decision is made it was a brief shower that has passed by, or if it's gonna be 1-3 inches worth.

If there is heavy rain 10-30 miles upstream which you can't see or hear, you usually have adequate warning before it reaches you. Yesterday the heavy rains on the Frio were north of Leakey in the early morning, and the gauge at Concan went from 3 ft. to 7 ft. at 8:30pm, more than enough time to get out of Dodge.

You don't play around with this stuff, all that's needed to convince you is seeing an old rusted mobile home frame stuck in a cypress tree 20 ft above the river as you and your family float by in your innertubes on a calm summer day. That on top of numerous precautions posted at Garner State Park or at private camps / outfitters regardless of the current weather.

It boggles my mind how many people who visit hill country rivers regularly, not to mention live on them, don't have their action plan ready and disseminated to others at any chance of measurable rain, day or night. The Texas Hill Country flood effect is very similar to what happened in the Appalachians of North Carolina last year.
BrazosDog02
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I was deleting my post to comply with staff warning. But, they got to it first. Probably best for it's own thread.

Has there been any updates on IR overnight rescue? Has anyone been located that wasn't located yesterday?
 
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