mcsatx said:

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I agree, that article is drawing all the wrong conclusions. I have been looking at all of the publicly available data and have put together my analysis in the links below.

In summary:
- This flood seems consistent with the FEMA 500-year flood event (0.2% annual probability).
- The buildings and cabins appear to be above the FEMA 100-year (1% annual probability) Base Flood Elevation based on LIDAR data.
- The FEMA LOMA confirms that the buildings and cabins were above the BFE.
- The 500-year flood elevation at Mystic is about 10 feet higher than the 100-year BFE.

Here is an overall analysis of the 100 vs 500 year flood, geography, rain intensity, flood gage data, topography, and the FEMA FIRM map boundaries. https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

Here is a 4D analysis which combines the LIDAR topography with the time/flow data from the Hunt flood gage: https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

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Except we don't know exactly which buildings were removed, because there's more than 15 buildings on the northern portion of the property.

riverrataggie said:

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Are you implying that because they have kept the missing person list so quiet, that people might actually not be missing. It's just nobody knows to tell them they aren't?

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More of something like someone in an rv park or camping, and they left early before things got bad, and no one knows they left. I would guess that the people running the rv park would have a list of everyone. But I've met some of the people that run these type of establishments, and some aren't the brightest bulbs.

How high above normal was the water at Mystic if it was 8 feet into Twins?

Did they get a toilet bowl effect in that area or was it the same depth (37ft-ish) as down at La Junta?

mcsatx said:

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I agree, that article is drawing all the wrong conclusions. I have been looking at all of the publicly available data and have put together my analysis in the links below.

In summary:
- This flood seems consistent with the FEMA 500-year flood event (0.2% annual probability).
- The buildings and cabins appear to be above the FEMA 100-year (1% annual probability) Base Flood Elevation based on LIDAR data.
- The FEMA LOMA confirms that the buildings and cabins were above the BFE.
- The 500-year flood elevation at Mystic is about 10 feet higher than the 100-year BFE.

Here is an overall analysis of the 100 vs 500 year flood, geography, rain intensity, flood gage data, topography, and the FEMA FIRM map boundaries. https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

Here is a 4D analysis which combines the LIDAR topography with the time/flow data from the Hunt flood gage: https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

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this map is eye popping but still only accounts for river flooding. it doesn't account for the flash flooding coming down cypress creek and bubble gum creek. so the flooding was even worse than this map shows.

The FEMA Base Level Engineering (BLE) model does include Cypress Creek and Edmunson Creek. You can read the methodology in the report here: https://pxl.to/Upper-Guadalupe-BLE-Report . The HEC-RAS files can be downloaded as well. Maybe someone could run the model and see what it looks like. I tried but it's a bit too far beyond my capabilities.

Not sure about the Twins cabin, but here is a picture of Bubble Inn. It looks to be about 2 feet off the ground. Assuming the door is 7 feet tall, the high water mark looks about about 2 feet below the top of door (referencing the lines along the window screen). The ground elevation is about 1843' along the side of the building in the picture. So that would put the high water mark around 1850' in this area.

Here is another reference point from Look Inn (second cabin closest to the river). The ground elevation at the near corner of the cabin is about 1840'. The high water mark seems to be 10+ feet above ground.

Quote:

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[color=#000000]Wow that is a very reckless, quite frankly bull****, article. The author bends over backwards to frame the narrative that the camp was frantically and carelessly trying to exempt buildings while FEMA ignorantly did so. Such ridiculous horse ***** You don't hate the media enough and this is why.[/color]

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Well, KBTX BCS chose to run the story today. https://www.kbtx.com/2025/07/12/fema-removed-dozens-camp-mystic-buildings-100-year-flood-map-before-expansion-records-show/

You would think they would have visited TXAGS for additional information, but evidently not. Thanks to you and others (mcsatx) for continuing to drill into the issue.

Phat32 said:

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How high above normal was the water at Mystic if it was 8 feet into Twins?

Did they get a toilet bowl effect in that area or was it the same depth (37ft-ish) as down at La Junta?

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Different river, but we have a hunting lease on the Llano River between Mason and Castell. The OLD hunting cabin is on the top of a hill above the Llano. It's on pilings about 3 feet off the ground and I once asked the ranch owner why. It had flooded once about 1980 and they had raised it to prevent a possible future flooding.

Standing on the hill looking down at the river, it's impossible for me to believe the river could possibly get that high, as the river valley/ floor is Very wide. Looking at historical flood numbers at the Hwy 87 river crossing near Mason, the crest in 1980 was 37 ft and the recorded high was a whopping 46 ft in 1935. I can't imagine the water coming down that river to go over our entire camp house if it was there in 1935. I guess that's why ALL of the oldest homesteads are nowhere near the river valley in that area. I'm sure the old homestead is above that level about a half mile from the river for a very good reason.

This July 4 it looks like the Llano measured about 30 ft with the 16 inches of rain reported in the area.

This is 1000% off topic, but this whole ordeal has reminded me how much I yearn for visiting this beautiful part of our state.

I went to a dude ranch in Bandera when I was 7 or 8, went to a concert in Kerrville during a Guadalupe river floating trip in college, I have driven west on I-10 from San Antonio to Vegas, and I've floated the Frio in Concan multiple times.

I've driven the beautiful roads from Concan through Hunt and on up through Hw 281 through Johnson City, but I've never visited or explored anything west of there, especially the Big Bend area.

We have a beautiful state. And until now, I've never even pondered the river system we have and how it all is intertwined.

My family homesteaded on the Guadalupe River by Rebecca Creek after the civil war. I was born and raised on that land on the river.. Most all the original old ranches up and down the Guadalupe from the headwaters to below New Braunfels were done by German immigrants.
Many of those old homes are still standing. Most have never been flooded because those people knew how to read the river topography, soils and land and where to build their homes and barns to insure they would not flood.

Does anyone know if Tweety has made a personal statement or if she or any of the Eastland family has attended any of the funerals? I can't imagine she has. I know she is dealing with her own devastating loss. In the TM article…" Tweety, whose thin, tiny frame belied a will of titanium, was warm and loving, a hugger of the first order." …..A lot of survivors could use one of those hugs.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/dick-tweety-eastland-camp-mystic-legacy/

What? OMG! So sorry to hear that. Sending prayers to you and your family.

dermdoc said:

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And you want to know how Lo people are? There are people calling the parents of the deceased saying they have their girls and they are still alive. Just pay them and you get your kid. Happened ot my family.

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One of the worst things I've ever heard. I hope you find peace.

Gunny456 said:

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My family homesteaded on the Guadalupe River by Rebecca Creek after the civil war. I was born and raised on that land on the river.. Most all the original old ranches up and down the Guadalupe from the headwaters to below New Braunfels were done by German immigrants.
Many of those old homes are still standing. Most have never been flooded because those people knew how to read the river topography, soils and land and where to build their homes and barns to insure they would not flood.

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When those areas were settled, it was probably much easier to notice the highest level of previous floods. Periodic grass fires usually kept the brush and small trees from becoming as prolific as they are now.

There were missing posters with what I believe were personal phone numbers listed. I understand wanting to know right away, but if you find one of the girls you call 911.

Yes, I didn't understand that move either. Was very confusing.

dermdoc said:

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And you want to know how low people are? There are people calling the parents of the deceased saying they have their girls and they are still alive. Just pay them and you get your kid. Happened to my family.

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We need some combination of ex-SF types and Israeli Mossad to take on the task of tracking people like that down and ejecting them from the island.

**please note that none of this is meant to draw an emotional parallel to the current situation.

I learned about this when my dog was lost by a boarder and I had my number out there. The number of scams that were attempted (one scam was successful and dangerous because we made decisions we might not have otherwise because we were frantic) in order to steal and fraudulently claim that they have found our dog. If I ever had to do it again, I'd definitely use a google voice number. It was sickening then...

but to do it to a parent is just so unthinkable. I tried to track down the worst one who put us in actual danger, but wasn't successful...but if it had been this situation..ugh.

Be careful with your personal phone number, folks. A lot of this stuff is done by a gang/cult named the Black Axe.

dermdoc said:

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BkYdPitmaster said:

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dermdoc said:

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And you want to know how Lo people are? There are people calling the parents of the deceased saying they have their girls and they are still alive. Just pay them and you get your kid. Happened ot my family.

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One of the worst things I've ever heard. I hope you find peace.

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I know the Lord. I always have peace. As does my family. Mary Grace lived a full life in her short 8 years.

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Good. And know that the angels surrounded her (your little angel) and lifted her up in comfort in her moment of need.

ETA: Mary Grace. Beautiful name.

dermdoc said:

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Mega Lops said:

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I just mute the news anytime this story comes on. After a week, the media has chosen to undermine and bash decision making. It is disgusting and not worth listening to. Those people should burn in hell for sensationalizing this ordeal.

It is also very disgusting to see the social media response by 99.9% of white women who have tied themselves tangentially to this tragedy.

These children and families need to be left to rest in peace without the attention seeking histrionics of women using the flash flood for their own emotional needs.

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As someone whose family has lost a dearly loved one 8 y/o girl, they can all fook off. They are not worthy to even mention these dear sweet people's names. And sometimes there is not a reason or a cause. Things happen.

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Bless you and your family Derm. I truly hope this thread and our approach to the reasons how it could happen where and how it did isn't upsetting to read. I really hope that in some way those of us in engineering and flood plain management can develop anything at all to prevent or at most mitigate a tragedy like this in the future. I've said so many prayers for these girls (which is often tough for a former atheist like myself) but I also feel like maybe in this field there's something more many of us can do in our work. This camp was a wonderful and beautiful place that inspired and reinforced a path with God for so many young girls. None of that should be tarnished by the media attempting to frame a story. Sickening all around.

Fairly broad statement, but I agree.

It really is unpredictable. Different tributary creeks and streams get different amounts of rainfall at different timings and those water surges meet the bigger water courses at different times and with different flow rates in literally every flood event. The timing, flow rates, result in highly variable surges of flow as they meet and add to the main stream. There is no way to truly predict how bad it could get at any given location based on the past. That why you can have a flood event where one part of the river greatly exceeds a past flood while not far down or upstream, it stays under past major flood levels.

People fail to understand this makes planning for the worst case without needlessly being too cautious very difficult.

Good point. Makes sense.

You are probably right.

On July 4th, the Lord took our daughter home with Him. We have started the Kellyanne Elizabeth Lytal Memorial Foundation in her honor to spread kindness in the world and make an impact in the midst of this tragedy. https://t.co/nQc8aeHhme#Kindness4Kellyanne pic.twitter.com/m8oIXW3New

— TUFB Coach_Lytal (@CoachLytal) July 14, 2025

Yet another River Angel lifted up.