jopatura said:

---

aginlakeway said:

---

Heads should roll in Kerrville? Like people should be fired? Really?

In your opinion, what should happen, and who should it happen to?

This was a horrible event that occurred at 5 am. Maybe everyone gets out if it happens at 5 pm. Blaming Kerrville officials for this seems harsh to me.

---

Kerrville didn't become underwater until closer to 6:30am depending on where you were on the river. The whole thing started west of Camp Mystic where it was even more rural - not sure there was much that could be done there. Hunt had no warning and likely not much opportunity for warning even with monitors.

The emergency manager in Kerrville said he didn't think things were that bad because it wasn't raining at 3:30-4am while he was running along the river. Kerrville didn't start doing anything until 5:34 am when the NWS alert included them. If they had started to get people to high ground at 4:20am, I think a lot of people in Kerrville would have been saved. It's the middle of the night but they had to have known that water was coming downstream. Another hour would have been priceless, especially for the RV parks in the city.

I'm not sure why the NWS didn't include Kerrville in the 4:20am warning - they had to know the water was heading that way. Questions that should be asked - why didn't the NWS include Kerrville, whose decision was that? Did Kerrville OEM/City Manager play any role in that?

---

Squadron7 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Reading that is hard. The cabins with the missing girls were the highest ones there, and over 35' above the normal river level, with no precedent of water ever getting that high. They were the last to be evacuated because it was assumed they were above any danger.

---

Is it possible to post some of that here for those of us without access?

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yeah it's real tough to blame city officials when the forecast had been for 4-8 inches and they got 14 in deluge downpours over a brief period of time. I'm not sure some of those camps are even within city limits, anyway. Sure, one or two meteorologists called it correctly but not too many from what I saw, and we can't evacuate everyone every single time a weatherman says something is scary. Ultimately, if there is a 'substantial' risk of an overnight flood people need to get kids away from the rivers. Full stop.

Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.

The Llano River in Llano, TX might be nearing its crest as the flow has leveled off at a whopping 125,000 cubic feet per second. It was flowing near 500 cubic feet per second only hours ago. Major catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country today. 7/4/25 #TXwx @TxStormChasers… pic.twitter.com/qIHHsgRzCL

— Clint Hendricks IV (@Clint_wx) July 4, 2025

---

fullback44 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yeah it's real tough to blame city officials when the forecast had been for 4-8 inches and they got 14 in deluge downpours over a brief period of time. I'm not sure some of those camps are even within city limits, anyway. Sure, one or two meteorologists called it correctly but not too many from what I saw, and we can't evacuate everyone every single time a weatherman says something is scary. Ultimately, if there is a 'substantial' risk of an overnight flood people need to get kids away from the rivers. Full stop.

Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.

The Llano River in Llano, TX might be nearing its crest as the flow has leveled off at a whopping 125,000 cubic feet per second. It was flowing near 500 cubic feet per second only hours ago. Major catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country today. 7/4/25 #TXwx @TxStormChasers… pic.twitter.com/qIHHsgRzCL

— Clint Hendricks IV (@Clint_wx) July 4, 2025

---

Where does the Llano River end up? In the Colorado River system?

Theirs is no blaming any city state or government officials, this is why the lake system was developed years ago, to try and control these floods, it's been happening for literally hundreds of years. The lake system is the best we can do at this time, let's not blame any person for any of this … that's ridiculous

---

🚨 Life-Threatening Flooding Ongoing in Central Texas & the Hill Country 🚨

Heavy rain is causing major flash flooding across Georgetown, Burnet, Kerrville, Austin, and parts of San Antonio. Rivers like the Guadalupe and San Gabriel are rising rapidly. More storms could…

— Texas Storm Chasers ⚡ (@TxStormChasers) July 5, 2025

Rapier108 said:

---

fullback44 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yeah it's real tough to blame city officials when the forecast had been for 4-8 inches and they got 14 in deluge downpours over a brief period of time. I'm not sure some of those camps are even within city limits, anyway. Sure, one or two meteorologists called it correctly but not too many from what I saw, and we can't evacuate everyone every single time a weatherman says something is scary. Ultimately, if there is a 'substantial' risk of an overnight flood people need to get kids away from the rivers. Full stop.

Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.

The Llano River in Llano, TX might be nearing its crest as the flow has leveled off at a whopping 125,000 cubic feet per second. It was flowing near 500 cubic feet per second only hours ago. Major catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country today. 7/4/25 #TXwx @TxStormChasers… pic.twitter.com/qIHHsgRzCL

— Clint Hendricks IV (@Clint_wx) July 4, 2025

---

Where does the Llano River end up? In the Colorado River system?

Theirs is no blaming any city state or government officials, this is why the lake system was developed years ago, to try and control these floods, it's been happening for literally hundreds of years. The lake system is the best we can do at this time, let's not blame any person for any of this … that's ridiculous

---

Blame game is human nature, but something we should try to keep in check.

So far I've seen it blamed on

Climate change
Trump (budget cuts)
Abbott
Republicans
County officials
City officials
Camp owners/operator
RV park owners/operators
"Weather people"
God

I'm sure there will be 50 more people/groups to blame before this is all over.

---

fullback44 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yeah it's real tough to blame city officials when the forecast had been for 4-8 inches and they got 14 in deluge downpours over a brief period of time. I'm not sure some of those camps are even within city limits, anyway. Sure, one or two meteorologists called it correctly but not too many from what I saw, and we can't evacuate everyone every single time a weatherman says something is scary. Ultimately, if there is a 'substantial' risk of an overnight flood people need to get kids away from the rivers. Full stop.

Now, camp owners/operators I struggle to rationalize how/why they wouldn't have someone awake all night on alert but some of those people also perished.

The Llano River in Llano, TX might be nearing its crest as the flow has leveled off at a whopping 125,000 cubic feet per second. It was flowing near 500 cubic feet per second only hours ago. Major catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country today. 7/4/25 #TXwx @TxStormChasers… pic.twitter.com/qIHHsgRzCL

— Clint Hendricks IV (@Clint_wx) July 4, 2025

---

Where does the Llano River end up? In the Colorado River system?

Theirs is no blaming any city state or government officials, this is why the lake system was developed years ago, to try and control these floods, it's been happening for literally hundreds of years. The lake system is the best we can do at this time, let's not blame any person for any of this … that's ridiculous

---

DannyDuberstein said:

---

Noem doing much better than Abbott. Offering actual actions they are taking vs generalities and performative signing papers he could have just said he did while giving actual info

---

ttu_85 said:

---

AgPrognosticator said:

---

Squadron7 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

---

Using what tools?

---

Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…

---

Yeah what kid or councilor is on their phone at 4:00 AM. I'm a weather nut and was already following this system. Nobody saw an event of this magnitude this coming. The NWS did good, given the circumstances, just to have a FF watch in effect.

Arm chair QB's are the worst.

---

WestHoustonAg79 said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

AgPrognosticator said:

---

Squadron7 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

---

Using what tools?

---

Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…

---

Yeah what kid or councilor is on their phone at 4:00 AM. I'm a weather nut and was already following this system. Nobody saw an event of this magnitude this coming. The NWS did good, given the circumstances, just to have a FF watch in effect.

Arm chair QB's are the worst.

---

Thank you for posting. Times like this is when the internet and social media are just the worst. Unimaginable time of crisis and some jack wagon with no skin in the game is already jumping to conclusions while many are still missing and true aftermath data is even out there. Obvious lack of empathy and seems that he can't put himself in someone else's shoes during horrific situations.

And frankly he couldnt get, bc of so many unknowns. But yet, already on the keyboard offense for zero reason.

Ugh. Makes me sick. And this will be one of many like this not just on TA but world at large.

---

WestHoustonAg79 said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

AgPrognosticator said:

---

Squadron7 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

---

Using what tools?

---

Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…

---

Yeah what kid or councilor is on their phone at 4:00 AM. I'm a weather nut and was already following this system. Nobody saw an event of this magnitude this coming. The NWS did good, given the circumstances, just to have a FF watch in effect.

Arm chair QB's are the worst.

---

Thank you for posting. Times like this is when the internet and social media are just the worst. Unimaginable time of crisis and some jack wagon with no skin in the game is already jumping to conclusions while many are still missing and true aftermath data is even out there. Obvious lack of empathy and seems that he can't put himself in someone else's shoes during horrific situations.

And frankly he couldnt get, bc of so many unknowns. But yet, already on the keyboard offense for zero reason.

Ugh. Makes me sick. And this will be one of many like this not just on TA but world at large.

---

nortex97 said:

---

WestHoustonAg79 said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

AgPrognosticator said:

---

Squadron7 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

---

Using what tools?

---

Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…

---

Yeah what kid or councilor is on their phone at 4:00 AM. I'm a weather nut and was already following this system. Nobody saw an event of this magnitude this coming. The NWS did good, given the circumstances, just to have a FF watch in effect.

Arm chair QB's are the worst.

---

Thank you for posting. Times like this is when the internet and social media are just the worst. Unimaginable time of crisis and some jack wagon with no skin in the game is already jumping to conclusions while many are still missing and true aftermath data is even out there. Obvious lack of empathy and seems that he can't put himself in someone else's shoes during horrific situations.

And frankly he couldnt get, bc of so many unknowns. But yet, already on the keyboard offense for zero reason.

Ugh. Makes me sick. And this will be one of many like this not just on TA but world at large.

---

I assume you are referencing me. I'll bide my time but stand by my assertions above. Kids sleeping in a canyon where flooding is a likely/anticipated risk, and being woken to water reaching their bunks is not ok. And I've read multiple accounts of that happening. Some I am sure did heroic acts, in fact many if not almost all. Empirically, the overall risk management however, was not acceptable, and if you find that to be 'jumping to conclusions' or a 'jack wagon' response I don't give a rat's ass.

Attempting to paint all skepticism as to the preparedness of all sites, or actions of management with a monolithic brush I think is absurd, but this isn't my first day on the internet either. I haven't pointed to any individuals to have 'heads roll' or anything like that. I do think a thorough after action review will prove out that much of the planning for recent developments (camping and homes etc) along these rivers is naive and dangerous, and I am not posting for any reason other than to point that out.

---

FobTies said:

---

Im sure there will be new tech that emerges to prevent this scale of tragedy from ever happening again. Some type of sensor and siren that can wake everyone up in flood plains.

---

nortex97 said:

---

WestHoustonAg79 said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

AgPrognosticator said:

---

Squadron7 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

---

Using what tools?

---

Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…

---

Yeah what kid or councilor is on their phone at 4:00 AM. I'm a weather nut and was already following this system. Nobody saw an event of this magnitude this coming. The NWS did good, given the circumstances, just to have a FF watch in effect.

Arm chair QB's are the worst.

---

Thank you for posting. Times like this is when the internet and social media are just the worst. Unimaginable time of crisis and some jack wagon with no skin in the game is already jumping to conclusions while many are still missing and true aftermath data is even out there. Obvious lack of empathy and seems that he can't put himself in someone else's shoes during horrific situations.

And frankly he couldnt get, bc of so many unknowns. But yet, already on the keyboard offense for zero reason.

Ugh. Makes me sick. And this will be one of many like this not just on TA but world at large.

---

I assume you are referencing me. I'll bide my time but stand by my assertions above. Kids sleeping in a canyon where flooding is a likely/anticipated risk, and being woken to water reaching their bunks is not ok. And I've read multiple accounts of that happening. Some I am sure did heroic acts, in fact many if not almost all. Empirically, the overall risk management however, was not acceptable, and if you find that to be 'jumping to conclusions' or a 'jack wagon' response I don't give a rat's ass.

Attempting to paint all skepticism as to the preparedness of all sites, or actions of management with a monolithic brush I think is absurd, but this isn't my first day on the internet either. I haven't pointed to any individuals to have 'heads roll' or anything like that. I do think a thorough after action review will prove out that much of the planning for recent developments (camping and homes etc) along these rivers is naive and dangerous, and I am not posting for any reason other than to point that out.

---

WestHoustonAg79 said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

aginlakeway said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

---

It unexpectedly rose 25 feet in 45 minutes. At 5 am. When less than 8 inches was the forecast.

I'm not blaming anyone for this. And i have family of friends still missing. Some long-time TexAgs posters have family missing. And they don't seem to be blaming anyone. See awesome thread on Outdoors board. Very informative.

Still wondering whose heads should roll in Kerrville. That comment is what started this portion of the discussion.

---

First, I consider this an example of an invalid appeal to authority. You may, as I do, find that thread informative yet it is also full of people with loved ones missing/deceased, and I am not going to assign any figment of blame or suggest remedial policy actions there. Second, your friends and family being missing adds absolutely zero to your credibility/status as a subject expert on any of these topics, any more than your having once apparently resided in Lakeway does. It's akin to nurses etc. claiming people should wear a mask around in public during Fauci's reign of terror, and people considering them experts because they work in a medical field/facility, and their viewpoint deserves more sympathy/authority as a result.

The forecast accurately predicted a deluge upstream of those camps (on already soaked ground/rocks), and while the amount the river would rise by was not clear (no one anticipated the 5 am 45 minute 25 foot rise), it was predicted to be a dangerous situation. This was not a surprise storm. An accurate meteorological prediction was noted on this thread early on, or the OB one.

The camp adult staff apparently chose not to monitor the situation via eye site/checks or via radio/communications otherwise overnight. I don't think it's fair to say 'poor cell coverage' and 'they needed some sleep' are acceptable answers when dozens are missing and many more barely awoke to cling to rafters until the wall of their structures blew out etc. I don't consider that acceptable risk management, and radio/cellular communications are issues that can actually be managed today, this isn't some 1876 movie/TV set. You can again disagree with me freely, and I don't claim to be a camp management/safety expert, I just am not willing to cede to your point that their overnight 6-8 hours of sleep was appropriately managed given the situation(s) and responsibilities they bore.

---

Apparently is why you should hop off for a bit and come at this objectively when aftermath data and intel is available. "Apparently" implies speculation. Which I think is gross to push (and defend) at this moment in time. Disagree with me all you want I just think it's not constructive to have this conversation yet. But you do you and defend your right to dive in here bud. Just yuck.

---