tysker said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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tysker said:

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Quote:

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Stock market is higher because of confidence in economic growth

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Evidence please.

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You want me to explain the stock market to you?

You invest in companies you believe will continue to deliver and grow. I am not sure the concept of buying high to sell low is a sound one. Maybe you have a different perspective on that.

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>50% of stock market flows are passive, that's not 'investing in companies to deliver and grow.' And about 40% is active ETFs and algos trading with themselves - that's also not 'investing in companies you believe will continue to deliver and grow.'

The stock market thread on the B&I board doesn't have time to educate you on flows, momentum, and leveraged ETFs, but appreciate that the way you want to characterize the stock market hasn't been accurate for about 20 years.

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Yea not really. Those who have true investable wealth own a substantial amount of equities directly. I have about 25% in equities. And I can tell you those investments, professionally managed, are based on the individual companies performance and projected performance or to take advantage of a particular industry.

If you think stagflation is ahead, plan accordingly. Most would disagree with you but that's fine. In order for me to make more money, some have to lose and I appreciate those who play that part.

Most investors are not HNW families who trade meaningfully in individual names. Most are passive via 401(k)s and managing money placed into ETFs and low-cost mutual funds like those offered by Vanguard

Roughly $33 billion of 401(k) flows are funneled into U.S. equities every month pic.twitter.com/7ZeES2BMhv

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) May 26, 2026

And if you don't think the market is being driven by a select group of companies I want you to explain this:

Semiconductors now make up a record 18% of the S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/BqnYetrL8k

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) May 26, 2026

And all that indicates stagflation? Cause that's where this started.

And in particular economic growth.

If you want to believe high stock prices are an indicator of economic retraction and upcoming stagflation, that's certainly one take. I just don't happen to think it's a good one.

The higher for longer inflation we are seeing across the economy, along with concerns about economic contraction, is why I stated there is a growing risk of stagflation.

I did not say we are going to have stagflation, or it's even imminent. The stock market can also be moving up even as the bond and commodity markets increase the risk profile for future stagflation. Both things can occur at the same time.

Bond markets seem to think a rate hike is a potential. Its almost certainly not but that is a concern by some. Talking on FBC with Charles Payne seems to be glass half empty, Charles brushed it off.

I have not seen anything to indicate economic contraction is likely, certainly not for the United States.

You do you bro.

LMCane said:

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literally every day gets the UAE closer to finishing their pipelines to the Shujairah port which avoids the Straits of Hormuz

every day brings in more Venezuelan petroleum

every day the USA has ports open for tankers to get our fuel

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That's great and has mitigated some of the effect but mathematically it doesn't make up for the lack of supply coming out of the Gulf. Storage drawdowns have been making up the difference. Those storage drawdowns cannot continue at this rate. The math is not on the side of time. Physical shortages will happen if the Strait stays closed and will result in significant price increases. Whether that's a month from now or two months from now or whatever is not really predictable for me, but we need to get the oil flow moving pronto.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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LMCane said:

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I'm old enough to remember:

when many dummies / communists / Islamists across the country were stating there would be $156 per barrel of oil as a result of us stopping an Iranian nuclear bomb

U.S. oil falls below $90 on report Iran agreement would restore Hormuz traffic in one month

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A lot of people who follow physical oil flows are still perplexed at the paper markets. If this thing doesn't actually open soon there will be very real physical shortages that will get oil to the 150s or higher almost overnight. The paper markets have been trading on optimism for the last several months. Everything said in the media about a deal being near or something behind the scenes getting done results in a drop but it seems to be just vibes more than anything.

Strategic petroleum drawdowns from storage and increased supply from alternate sources have mitigated much of the hit but we are still drawing down more from storage than we are extra-producing to meet demand. That can only last so long. There's a bare minimum you have to keep running through the pipes to keep the system flowing and storage is drawing down fast. Asia and Europe are nearing the point.

Definitely hoping the strait gets open ASAP.

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You are spot on. The clock is ticking. Every day that passes with the SoH remaining closed, Iran's negotiating position becomes stronger. The next big economic shocks from the closure of the SoH are approaching.

The effects of shrinking oil inventories are being felt in Asian countries r n and will be a major issue by end of July. The EU and UK will be next.

We need to open the SoH asap.

What is the best estimates on how much Iranian money has been frozen ?

Seems like everything else can be worked out or kicked down the road

Frozen assets are binary
seems likely no deal until the assets are unfrozen

Given the amount of criticism BHO got for returning frozen assets Under the prior deal I guess unfreezing the money and lying about it is the most likely path forward

$100 billion was one figure I heard regarding frozen assets.

There is no plan or intention to return this to an Islamic regime led by the Ayatollah and the IRGC.

And for those that think Iran becomes stronger everyday the Strait of Hormuz is closed… by that logic if we hold the course then Iran may be in position to rule the world by fall.

A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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No it cannot.

Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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Iran and Xi will suffer.

We will be fine contrary to what we are being fed by the leftists.

Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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How so? Please expound.

Because of leftists, MSM and TDS sufferers, Iran continues to score points on the propaganda war.

If congress actually did declare war, some folks here would be in a sticky wicket for spreading Iranian propaganda.

MelvinUdall said:

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Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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How so? Please expound.

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If Xi wants to bail out his mullah buddies with some missile and drone parts, food, funds, etc then Trump will essentially tariff Chinese trade with the US out of existence. China depends on exporting cheap goods to the world including the US. Xi does not want this therefore he will not be propping up the Islamic regime. It is 100% no in their interest.

Iran is isolated. Every minute they hold out weakens their regime and increased the risk of coup in the country. Is there no reporting out of Iran that everything is hunky dory and people are happy with the new ayatollah?

Sq 17 said:

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What is the best estimates on how much Iranian money has been frozen ?

Seems like everything else can be worked out or kicked down the road

Frozen assets are binary
seems likely no deal until the assets are unfrozen

Given the amount of criticism BHO got for returning frozen assets Under the prior deal I guess unfreezing the money and lying about it is the most likely path forward

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Frozen assets are binary, yes and no. As you suggest, there are several opaque ways to accomplish a de facto "release" of billions of dollars in funds to the Iranian regime while still being able to make a politically expedient claim to the MAGA base and GOP hardliners that "No funds have been released; the Iran regime's bank accounts and tens of billions in funds are still frozen."

We have Iran in an economic vice. But Iran has an economic vice, too, on the world economy; it is called the SoH.

I guess it is now a contest of which side gives in first.

flown-the-coop said:

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MelvinUdall said:

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Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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How so? Please expound.

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If Xi wants to bail out his mullah buddies with some missile and drone parts, food, funds, etc then Trump will essentially tariff Chinese trade with the US out of existence. China depends on exporting cheap goods to the world including the US. Xi does not want this therefore he will not be propping up the Islamic regime. It is 100% no in their interest.

Iran is isolated. Every minute they hold out weakens their regime and increased the risk of coup in the country. Is there no reporting out of Iran that everything is hunky dory and people are happy with the new ayatollah?

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This is where I am at…what I couldn't understand is why Sq17 felt they could out wait Trump…I don't think Trump doesn't particularly cares how long it takes, regardless of the midterms…if Iran and Xi feel the Trump will give in to an election, I think they will be disappointed.

The case that Xi and Iran can hold out hinges on a few questions

Is Xi and the CCP better positioned for the next phase of energy inflation than Trump and the US economy ?
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Can the mullahs keep a lid on their people and prevent a coup ?
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Can Iran hold out against a US escalation and deal back enough damage ( blowing up other gulf states Petro infrastructure) to make the US regret escalation ?

If the answer to all 3 of those questions is yes that is the case for Xi and Iran having the short term next six months the superior bargaining position

And Trump definitely cares how the midterms turn out I think to say otherwise is unreasonable

flown-the-coop said:

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Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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No it cannot.

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It is an easy case to make. We have midterm elections coming up and if the Strait stays closed, oil will be materially higher by November and the Republicans will get blamed for it in the midterms and lose the house and potentially the Senate. That means a guaranteed impeachment by the House (no conviction and no real basis for it but we all know it is what a Dem house will do) and any chance on Trump getting anything done in the last 2 years other than by EO will essentially be dead.

Absent election concerns, I totally agree we can out wait them but that isn't political reality.

If all Trump cared about was the midterms, we would have never started this in the first place.

To even fathom is in a better shape economically is comical. I posted a chart showing their clear decline. Meanwhile, all economic signs in the IS are "go for launch".

Kansas Kid said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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No it cannot.

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It is an easy case to make. We have midterm elections coming up and if the Strait stays closed, oil will be materially higher by November and the Republicans will get blamed for it in the midterms and lose the house and potentially the Senate. That means a guaranteed impeachment by the House (no conviction and no real basis for it but we all know it is what a Dem house will do) and any chance on Trump getting anything done in the last 2 years other than by EO will essentially be dead.

Absent election concerns, I totally agree we can out wait them but that isn't political reality.

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It's funny but there are those worried about elections and then there is Trump plowing ahead against the winds and winds unseating RINOs left and right, pun intended.

Buckle up. It's going to be a summer to remember.

Sq 17 said:

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The case that Xi and Iran can hold out hinges on a few questions

Is Xi and the CCP better positioned for the next phase of energy inflation than Trump and the US economy ?
&
Can the mullahs keep a lid on their people and prevent a coup ?
&
Can Iran hold out against a US escalation and deal back enough damage ( blowing up other gulf states Petro infrastructure) to make the US regret escalation ?

If the answer to all 3 of those questions is yes that is the case for Xi and Iran having the short term next six months the superior bargaining position

And Trump definitely cares how the midterms turn out I think to say otherwise is unreasonable

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Disagree on the midterms, it wouldn't have lasted this long had the midterms been his focus.

I mean he has clearly said as much.

Now… with Trump, his feelings could change over the summer.

For now, he's good with where he is.

How would he have brought this to a more expedited end ?

flown-the-coop said:

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I mean he has clearly said as much.

Now… with Trump, his feelings could change over the summer.

For now, he's good with where he is.

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I think the thing that has helped keep Trump in his "meh" stage about this is the fact that the gerrymandering has all but made sure he doesn't have to worry about the Dems putting him through investigation after investigation if they win in November.

Right now, the only thing he has to worry about, politically, is nothing.

His maga could al totally revolt on him, take his poll down to zero percent approval rating within the GOP, and I honestly believe he wouldn't care less.

He's going to do what he wants, and with no one to legally or politically (investigations from the left) hold him to account, what does he care if people don't actually like what he's doing, or even like him?

Also, gas went down a nickel at my usual gas station. Just two more dollars and sixty cents to go. Baby steps keep a stepping.

Obviously he has to say the mid terms are not a consideration otherwise he would be conceding leverage

It's pretty obvious when
A politician is posturing and this sounds like posturing

Sq 17 said:

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Obviously he has to say the mid terms are not a consideration otherwise he would be conceding leverage

It's pretty obvious when
A politician is posturing and this sounds like posturing

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Trump never concedes.

If you think it's posturing, that's still a good thing. And we appreciate your attention to this matter.

bobbranco said:

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Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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Iran and Xi will suffer.

We will be fine contrary to what we are being fed by the leftists.

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Authoritarian regimes don't care if their people suffer.

How exactly will we "be fine?"
If we will be 'be fine,' why is there any urgency by the administration to end this conflict at all?

flown-the-coop said:

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Because of leftists, MSM and TDS sufferers, Iran continues to score points on the propaganda war.

If congress actually did declare war, some folks here would be in a sticky wicket for spreading Iranian propaganda.

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Both of the above assertions are false. Some of us are objectively analyzing and discussing the war's effect on the oil and gas situation in the ME, Asia, the USA, and UK/EU. That isn't TDS, and it isn't Iranian propaganda.

Iran is imposing a significant amount of leverage on the world economy and the U.S. economy due to Iran's closing of the SoH.

Conversely, we the USA have Iran in an even tighter vice. We're imposing a huge amount of leverage on Iran's economy due to our sanctions + our blockade + our nearby military attack force + our cooperative alliances with Iran's ME neighbors.

The USA is trying to squeeze Iran's economy till their ruling regime gives in or collapses. The Iranian regime in turn is trying to hold on while using the closed SoH to squeeze the world economies.

It's a waiting game between us and Iran to see which side gives in first. Trump himself publically said so in the past week.

bobbranco said:

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Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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Iran and Xi will suffer.

We will be fine contrary to what we are being fed by the leftists.

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If the "we" you're referring to is our nation the USA, then yes, our nation will be fine.

But if you're referring to the 340M individuals who live here, no, they will not all be fine.

Because of the big jump in prices of gasoline, diesel, LNG, and fertilizer, there are farms and businesses going bankrupt, families and senior citizen retirees being evicted from apartments, rentals, and homes, and lots of other Americans are negatively affected.

A little economic discomfort to reset the world order in our favor? Worth.

Thank you for confirming what I said.

DeschutesAg said:

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bobbranco said:

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Sq 17 said:

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A case can be made that Iran and Xi can outwait the US and the EU

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Iran and Xi will suffer.

We will be fine contrary to what we are being fed by the leftists.

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If the "we" you're referring to is our nation the USA, then yes, our nation will be fine.

But if you're referring to the 340M individuals who live here, no, they will not all be fine.

Because of the big jump in prices of gasoline, diesel, LNG, and fertilizer, there are farms and businesses going bankrupt, families and senior citizen retirees being evicted from apartments, rentals, and homes, and lots of other Americans are negatively affected.

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You post makes no sense whatsoever. As a nation we will be fine if all 340 million who live here are not fine? Explain how that works!

Did you espouse the same laments on high gas prices under Biden and Ukraine? Cause we are still lower now.

Who the f has gone bankrupt due to Epic Furry. Just provide one bloody example. Who is being evicted from their homes because of Iran?

Please just be honest here.

DeschutesAg said:

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If the "we" you're referring to is our nation the USA, then yes, our nation will be fine.

But if you're referring to the 340M individuals who live here, no, they will not all be fine.

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huh???

HumbleAg04 said:

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A little economic discomfort to reset the world order in our favor? Worth.

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What happens when you run out of other people's money prior to the world resetting into your vision?