Russia does not have that much excess capacity
JMHO
Not sure starting a kinetic action that helps Putin hold on a little longer was the part of the plan

LMCane said:

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Logos Stick said:

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FlyRod said:

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FlyRod said:

Chatter from oil folks I'm hearing is $156 by June. That's the summer floor (projected) not ceiling. Well this thread can and should stay alive just to check the numbers.

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March 16 (Current)
$94.72

March 13
$96.84

March 12
$94.43

March 11
$86.07

March 10
$82.10

March 09
$94.77

March 06 (Last Friday)
$90.90

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March 17
$94.62

is that the same as $156?

From the same talking heads that bring you predictions of $8k/oz gold by summer.

LMCane said:

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LMCane said:

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Logos Stick said:

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FlyRod said:

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FlyRod said:

Chatter from oil folks I'm hearing is $156 by June. That's the summer floor (projected) not ceiling. Well this thread can and should stay alive just to check the numbers.

---

---

March 16 (Current)
$94.72

March 13
$96.84

March 12
$94.43

March 11
$86.07

March 10
$82.10

March 09
$94.77

March 06 (Last Friday)
$90.90

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March 17
$94.62

is that the same as $156?

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I was told that there would be no math.

As we said two weeks ago: watch for fuel and oil product shortages, beginning in emerging economies. Rich countries can pay up for supplies, others cannot. https://t.co/qQ6y9u7AKo

— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) March 17, 2026

🚨 Global average jet fuel prices rose +82.8% MoM. pic.twitter.com/NZg2aBAEVl

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) March 17, 2026

Dan Scott said:

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As we said two weeks ago: watch for fuel and oil product shortages, beginning in emerging economies. Rich countries can pay up for supplies, others cannot. https://t.co/qQ6y9u7AKo

— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) March 17, 2026

🚨 Global average jet fuel prices rose +82.8% MoM. pic.twitter.com/NZg2aBAEVl

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) March 17, 2026

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I'd like to nominate Wednesday as the day off.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Diesel fuel prices in the US—the lifeblood of freight, agriculture, and construction—have risen above $5/gallon pic.twitter.com/0ICKAbW3fZ

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) March 17, 2026

Book flights now

Ags play on Thursday and this Th-Fr are probably the best 2 weekdays in sports

Sq 17 said:

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Ags play on Thursday and this Th-Fr are probably the best 2 weekdays in sports

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Best of luck to our players.

July 22, 2022

$118.77 per barrel

Who was the President in the summer of 2022 again?

Spread between WTI and Brent is widening. If Trump really wants to stick it to the EU for not helping with the strait, he'd do an export ban.

VANCE ON GAS PRICES: WILL ANNOUNCE A COUPLE OF THINGS IN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 18, 2026

US gasoline goes negative while EU diesel still trading up 4%

Something fishy happening.

Trump floats the idea of the U.S. abandoning the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/WfNjBR0lzq

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 18, 2026

Export ban coming I think. Don't know if legal.

Biden...which is why Russia invaded Ukraine, which is what caused the oil spike.

🔴 Vance to meet American Petroleum Institute board members Thursday.

— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) March 18, 2026

Dan Scott said:

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Trump floats the idea of the U.S. abandoning the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/WfNjBR0lzq

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 18, 2026

Export ban coming I think. Don't know if legal.

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https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait/

Super interesting take

Quote:

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Every TV analyst in America is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. They are asking the wrong questions. The binding constraint on Hormuz was never a minefield or insurance. It is the US Navy's willingness and ability to reopen it.

Every talking point suggests the White House and Navy are working hard to reopen the strait but progress is slow. A new posts on Truth Social suggests we may have to considet a new hypothesis.

"I wonder what would happen if we "finished off" what's left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don't, be responsible for the so called Strait?" wrote President Trump in a psot this morning. "That would get some of our non-responsive "Allies" in gear, and fast!!!"

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Quote:

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When the seven P&I clubs belonging to the International Group issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf on March 5, they did not just raise costs. They made transit impossible.

P&I clubs insure roughly 90 percent of the world's ocean-going tonnage. Without their coverage, ships cannot sail. Port authorities will not let them dock. Banks will not finance the cargo. Charterers will not book the vessel. The entire system, from loading berth to discharge terminal, is underwritten by a chain of contracts that begins with a club in London, Oslo, or Tokyo.

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Quote:

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Then Trump did something that almost nobody in the press understood.

He ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to create a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility, with Chubb as lead underwriter, making the United States government the insurer of last resort for Gulf shipping. A sovereign nation positioned itself as the backstop for war risk insurance on the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. The DFC facility, coordinated with US Central Command and Treasury, offers hull, machinery, and cargo coverage on a rolling basis to eligible vessels.

The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.

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Quote:

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Trump came into his second term determined to restore American maritime power. He assembled the greatest collection of maritime minds in key government positions since Nixon. ...He started targeting chokepoints: Panama, the Red Sea, Suez, the Greenland-UK Gap. He launched investigations into Gibraltar and Spain. He created USTR actions to tariff Chinese-built and operated ships. He called CMA CGM's CEO Rodolphe Saad to the Oval Office and secured a $20 billion commitment to American maritime investment.

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Quote:

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Then Signalgate. The media leaked a private conversation about attacking the Houthis and reopening the Red Sea. The operation was stunned. Signalgate forced a reorganization. Waltz was moved to the UN. The Maritime Office was downsized. The NSC was gutted.

That was the moment every maritime initiative began to stall.

What collapsed: Panama did not follow through on free transits for U.S. ships. CMA CGM's $20 billion commitment evaporated as the company ordered vessels from China and India instead. Congress stalled on the SHIPS Act. The UK traded the Chagos Islands, including Diego Garcia, to Mauritius for a sweetheart deal, putting a critical naval base at risk. Key Navy appointees were slow-rolled or blocked in the Senate.

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Quote:

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The European shipping community and political establishment spent the past year dismissing, undermining, and mocking every Trump maritime initiative. They scoffed at the USTR tariffs. They laughed at the SHIPS Act. They blocked the IMO exemptions. They refused to take American maritime policy seriously.

Now their energy supply runs through an insurance facility controlled by Washington.

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Quote:

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The real threat is not $200 oil. It's a fracture of the system. It is cheap energy in export nations and ruinous energy costs in places far from reserves. It's $2 oil in the Persain Gulf, $20 dollar oil in the Gulf of America and $2,000 oil in the UK....One global price only works if there is a surplus of tankers to arbitrage differentials. Before the Iran strikes, that surplus was razor-thin. Now, with supertankers stuck in the Gulf, it is gone.

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Much much more at the link

RBOB breaks 3.30, highest since June 2022

Oil stocks making new highs. Market is not thinking this will end soon

LMCane said:

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July 22, 2022

$118.77 per barrel

Who was the President in the summer of 2022 again?

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That's a great question.

Dan Scott said:

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RBOB breaks 3.30, highest since June 2022

Oil stocks making new highs. Market is not thinking this will end soon

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Agreed. Just looked and we are at Sept levels on S&P. Yikes.

You've got the straight of hormuz essentially blocked by homicidal maniacs with ballistic missiles and we're under $100 WTI. I'd say that's a bullish signal more than a bearish one...

AP is short bunker and prices have doubled. If they don't have bunker, ships aren't going to be able to move all that manufactured product to USA.

To me this is starting to feel like Covid where there was a volatile grind down and then there was a "OH ****" moment. If this isn't resolved soon we're going to have that moment. AP refiners already cutting back on production.

Sims said:

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You've got the straight of hormuz essentially blocked by homicidal maniacs with ballistic missiles and we're under $100 WTI. I'd say that's a bullish signal more than a bearish one...

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If we can eliminate Iran as a threat, give the Iranians (the ones who have died protesting for their country back) their country back, AND all for a few bucks more a month at the pump.

Worth. Every. Penny.

I find it interesting that the media continues to report Brent prices in lieu of WTI. Of course they are doing this because your average American doesn't know the difference and sees "urmadgod $112" rather than $98.

Queso1 said:

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I find it interesting that the media continues to report Brent prices in lieu of WTI. Of course they are doing this because your average American doesn't know the difference and sees "urmadgod $112" rather than $98.

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It's the same way they focus on good ol boy Kilmar and ignore Laken Riley.

They pick and choose their propaganda. News is not news. Fortunately, the interwebs gives people more access to real news.

It also continues to give broad voice to TC and Candace Owen's lunatics.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-21/negative-west-texas-waha-gas-prices-reveal-global-energy-mismatch

Gas flaring the highest in the last 5 years. Good sign that oil production is picking up gas flaring is up so much.

No Spin Ag said:

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Sims said:

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You've got the straight of hormuz essentially blocked by homicidal maniacs with ballistic missiles and we're under $100 WTI. I'd say that's a bullish signal more than a bearish one...

---

If we can eliminate Iran as a threat, give the Iranians (the ones who have died protesting for their country back) their country back, AND all for a few bucks more a month at the pump.

Worth. Every. Penny.

---

We can't eliminate Iran as a threat. They will restock weapons. They have plenty of oil and money.

The Persians and other ME countries are not willing/ able to fight the radical Muslims in a ground war. And we will not do it for them.

'Best we can do is to hit them hard enough this month that they will remember why their behavior must improve. And in the process destroy as many of their weapons/ planes/ boats / nuke facilities we can.

Winning the 26/28 election is much more important than the Iranian threat. Like it or not.

Mas89 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Sims said:

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You've got the straight of hormuz essentially blocked by homicidal maniacs with ballistic missiles and we're under $100 WTI. I'd say that's a bullish signal more than a bearish one...

---

If we can eliminate Iran as a threat, give the Iranians (the ones who have died protesting for their country back) their country back, AND all for a few bucks more a month at the pump.

Worth. Every. Penny.

---

We can't eliminate Iran as a threat. They will restock weapons. They have plenty of oil and money.

The Persians and other ME countries are not willing/ able to fight the radical Muslims in a ground war. And we will not do it for them.

'Best we can do is to hit them hard enough this month that they will remember why their behavior must improve. And in the process destroy as many of their weapons/ planes/ boats / nuke facilities we can.

Winning the 26/28 election is much more important than the Iranian threat. Like it or not.

---

I hear you, but I'm thinking of this is all we do, like with so many things, once Trump is gone, Iran will be right back to where they were.

Full regime change or this will eventually (sooner than later) be for not.

Mas89 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

---

Sims said:

---

You've got the straight of hormuz essentially blocked by homicidal maniacs with ballistic missiles and we're under $100 WTI. I'd say that's a bullish signal more than a bearish one...

---

If we can eliminate Iran as a threat, give the Iranians (the ones who have died protesting for their country back) their country back, AND all for a few bucks more a month at the pump.

Worth. Every. Penny.

---

We can't eliminate Iran as a threat. They will restock weapons. They have plenty of oil and money.

The Persians and other ME countries are not willing/ able to fight the radical Muslims in a ground war. And we will not do it for them.

'Best we can do is to hit them hard enough this month that they will remember why their behavior must improve. And in the process destroy as many of their weapons/ planes/ boats / nuke facilities we can.

Winning the 26/28 election is much more important than the Iranian threat. Like it or not.

---

We can eliminate the entire country if we desire. Who is going to stop us?

We have taken out layer on layer of their manufacturing and production facilities. At some point the guys on the assembly line will resist the guy with a gun to his head and choose bullet or vaporization via USofA. The guys who held the gun will be behind them telling them to step forward and get to working. Albeit at a new facility with poorer quality materials and ingredients. Rinse, repeat.

Germany thought they could produce weapons faster than they expended. Turns out that was a poor plan. But these Iranian nut cases figured it out?

What good is winning an election when your kids go to school in concrete bunkers because Iran got a shipping container close enough to pop a couple EMPs over the US?

It's time to be strong.

flown-the-coop said:

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At some point the guys on the assembly line will resist the guy with a gun to his head and choose bullet or vaporization via USofA.

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What if they view the USofA as the one who has the gun to their head? The entire Iranian population has been told for their entire lives the US and Israel are their enemy. Now, the US and Israel are the ones bombing them every single day. Who do you think most are going to side with?

I understand your thought process. But nobody stepped up over there to fight in 1979 or over the past 46 years. Who do you expect to now? Do you think other ME countries will send their soldiers to fight in Iran? Only well paid mercenaries fight in other ME countries and Iran has many on their payroll today. Turkey would be a possibility but it's clearly not their fight.

Again, the Persians are lovers and not fighters. Iran is a large country with a large population. I do not expect the US or Israel to invade or send more than a token force to grab the oil export facility perhaps. It's much easier to knock them back every 5 years or so. Do we see any Persians wanting to return to their home country to fight for it? Of course not.

AustinAg2K said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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At some point the guys on the assembly line will resist the guy with a gun to his head and choose bullet or vaporization via USofA.

---

What if they view the USofA as the one who has the gun to their head? The entire Iranian population has been told for their entire lives the US and Israel are their enemy. Now, the US and Israel are the ones bombing them every single day. Who do you think most are going to side with?

---

Bingo.

Iranian civilization has been around 3000 years. It's a source of pride for Iranians their history. Iran is also not a country with largely made up borders after WW1. Iranians going back to fall of Persian Empire distrust foreign intervention. Early talks of Kurds invading or other separatist groups and carving Iran was not helpful.

The recent protest were economic. Iran was on the verge of financial collapse. The US really needs to stop thinking people around the world want the freedom we have here.

Mas89 said:

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I understand your thought process. But nobody stepped up over there to fight in 1979 or over the past 46 years. Who do you expect to now? Do you think other ME countries will send their soldiers to fight in Iran? Only well paid mercenaries fight in other ME countries and Iran has many on their payroll today. Turkey would be a possibility but it's clearly not their fight.

Again, the Persians are lovers and not fighters. Iran is a large country with a large population. I do not expect the US or Israel to invade or send more than a token force to grab the oil export facility perhaps. It's much easier to knock them back every 5 years or so. Do we see any Persians wanting to return to their home country to fight for it? Of course not.

---

The hundred thousand or so killed over the years including estimates of 10,000-30,000 from the current skirmish.

Have you read or watched anything on the 1979 revolution and the years leading up to it? There is a reason Trump has not stepped up to tell Pavlavi its his now and go further. The old guys were also corrupt and drunk with oil dollars. Do you want corrupt oil dollars? Or jihadist oil dollars?

The references to Persians being "lovers" not fighters is based on their commitment to the arts, poetry and the like. But make know mistake them ****ers will pick a sword and slice you up. What about their behavior over the last 47 years says "lovers". Is it loving to chant death to Americans? Death to Israelis? Death to infidels? Hell, they even chant death to their fellow Muslims if the mood suits them.

BTW - Iran =/= Persian. Persian applies to some areas beyond modern borders.

And Iran has folks on their payrolls… how? They paying in Iranian pesos? Cause they are not wiring money out, not shipping gold out. And how can they afford to pay others when they cannot pay members of the IGRC.

Quote:

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The most consistent and detailed recent data comes from GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran), a Netherlands-based independent research group that conducts large-scale online surveys (often via VPNs for anonymity). Their findings from 20242025 (including post-2025 events like the 12-day war with Israel) are among the most cited:

In their June 2024 survey (77,000+ respondents inside Iran, weighted to represent the literate adult population):

Only about 20% support continuing the Islamic Republic as is.

Roughly 40% view regime change as a precondition for any meaningful reform/progress.

Another 24% favor a structural transition away from the current system.

Combined, this suggests 6070%+ support some form of regime change or major systemic overhaul (with only ~20% favoring preservation of the status quo).

Support for the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and Supreme Leader dropped to 11% (from 18% in earlier years).

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I am happy to keep discussing, but please get some basic facts correct.

Dan Scott said:

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AustinAg2K said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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At some point the guys on the assembly line will resist the guy with a gun to his head and choose bullet or vaporization via USofA.

---

What if they view the USofA as the one who has the gun to their head? The entire Iranian population has been told for their entire lives the US and Israel are their enemy. Now, the US and Israel are the ones bombing them every single day. Who do you think most are going to side with?

---

Bingo.

Iranian civilization has been around 3000 years. It's a source of pride for Iranians their history. Iran is also not a country with largely made up borders after WW1. Iranians going back to fall of Persian Empire distrust foreign intervention. Early talks of Kurds invading or other separatist groups and carving Iran was not helpful.

The recent protest were economic. Iran was on the verge of financial collapse. The US really needs to stop thinking people around the world want the freedom we have here.

---

Tell me when Islam entered the picture and why. Then let's get back to who Iran is, who Persians are, their differences and the likes. Iran is ABSOLUTELY a country with made up borders that happens to enjoy some geographical barriers that has allowed it to enjoy an unequal foothold versus other constructs.

Can you name the guy who thought very highly of the ancient Persians?

Dan Scott said:

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AustinAg2K said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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At some point the guys on the assembly line will resist the guy with a gun to his head and choose bullet or vaporization via USofA.

---

What if they view the USofA as the one who has the gun to their head? The entire Iranian population has been told for their entire lives the US and Israel are their enemy. Now, the US and Israel are the ones bombing them every single day. Who do you think most are going to side with?

---

Bingo.

Iranian civilization has been around 3000 years. It's a source of pride for Iranians their history. Iran is also not a country with largely made up borders after WW1. Iranians going back to fall of Persian Empire distrust foreign intervention. Early talks of Kurds invading or other separatist groups and carving Iran was not helpful.

The recent protest were economic. Iran was on the verge of financial collapse. The US really needs to stop thinking people around the world want the freedom we have here.

---

So long as they don't try and nuke us. If they do, or plan on it, we need shove freedom down their throats whether they like it or not.

techno-ag said:

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Dan Scott said:

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AustinAg2K said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

At some point the guys on the assembly line will resist the guy with a gun to his head and choose bullet or vaporization via USofA.

---

What if they view the USofA as the one who has the gun to their head? The entire Iranian population has been told for their entire lives the US and Israel are their enemy. Now, the US and Israel are the ones bombing them every single day. Who do you think most are going to side with?

---

Bingo.

Iranian civilization has been around 3000 years. It's a source of pride for Iranians their history. Iran is also not a country with largely made up borders after WW1. Iranians going back to fall of Persian Empire distrust foreign intervention. Early talks of Kurds invading or other separatist groups and carving Iran was not helpful.

The recent protest were economic. Iran was on the verge of financial collapse. The US really needs to stop thinking people around the world want the freedom we have here.

---

So long as they don't try and nuke us. If they do, or plan on it, we need shove freedom down their throats whether they like it or not.

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Eventually another nuclear power will help them achieve their nuclear ambitions, just for their oil.