EPL Relegation Watch 2023

42,355 Views | 586 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Faustus
Aston94
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The calendar is turning to March, and we enter the final third of the season, where the teams in the top half of the table begin to focus on European positions and the top 3-4 teams still chase title dreams. For the bottom half of the table, the focus turns to survival, avoiding the last three positions and the dreaded drop out of the Premier League and into the football league. We have a very tight race this year, and unlike the prior few years we don't have any one team that is well off the pace, so out of the bottom 7-8 clubs literally any of them could go down the Championship or find safety.

All of the clubs in the relegation battle have played 24 matches, meaning everyone has 14 matches to go, or a total of 42 points available to them. With West Ham, Everton, Leicester and Leeds all involved in the relegation fight this season, you know there will be a high level of anxiety in the large supporter's groups all those clubs have.

Current Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. Nottingham Forest 24 25
14. Leicester City 24 24
15. Wolves 24 24
16. West Ham 24 23
17. Leeds United 24 22
18. Everton 24 21
19. Bournemouth 24 21
20. Southampton 24 18

Just Seven points separate 13th from 20th, so expect a lot of ups and downs in this battle over the next 14 matchdays. Given the rate teams are collecting points, where a point a game keeps a club out of the relegation zone, it looks like the general rule of 40 points assuring a club safety will hold true this season as well.

Nottingham Forest. Forest have been on a good run since the turn of the year, claiming 12 points out of their last 8 matches. That run of form has seen Forest go from bottom of the table to just on the top fringe of the relegation battle. Forest have four remaining matches with other relegation battlers, and four remaining matches with the top 6, so the schedule is favorable for Steve Cooper's side to avoid the immediate drop back to the Championship after their long awaited return to the EPL.

Leicester City. We all anticipated the Foxes falling a bit this season, given all the offseason departures without much returning in the way of players. Brendon Rogers club has claimed just seven points since the beginning of the year (8 matches), and this drop in form has put the Foxes in the relegation battle. Leicester's schedule is very favorable, however, as they have a relegation high six matches remaining with other relegation battling clubs, and only two matches remaining against the top 6. So Leicester should be fine, if they can beat the other clubs in the relegation battle.

Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves looked to be in serious trouble of relegation prior to the hiring of current manager Julen Lopetegui. Since the beginning of the year, Wolves have claimed 11 points from their last 8 matches, second best among the relegation battlers over that time period (Forest being first). This run of form has seen Wolves climb from bottom of the table to 15th. Wolves remaining schedule provides only four more matches against other relegation clubs, but it also only requires they play the top 6 clubs only four more times as well.

West Ham. To call the Hammers' season a disappointment would be a huge understatement. This team was battling for Champion League positions last season, a club that spent a large amount of money last summer in hopes of continuing that push for Champions League. Instead, here they sit, right in the middle of a relegation battle. Somehow David Moyes has kept his job throughout this poor season, and you hope he can get the club motivated and playing together for a strong run to end the season. The Hammers have claimed 9 points in their last 8 matches, which is a number that has kept them out of the bottom three…barely. Of their 14 remaining matches four are against other relegation clubs and four are against the top 6 teams, so the schedule is manageable and if their talent will come together you would have to like their chances of avoiding the drop.

Leeds United. What a roller coaster of emotion this club has been on. Since last year's firing of Bielsa, the hiring of Jesse Marsch who led the club to safety last season, to a team who just cannot seem to find ways to score this season, the firing of Jesse Marsch and eventual hiring of Javi Gracia, it has been a wild year for the Whites. The club should not be in this spot, but they have seemingly found ways to drop points from winning positions nearly every week. They have only claimed 6 points in their last eight matches, which puts them in the predicament they are in…right outside the bottom three. The club has five matches remaining with the other relegation clubs and four remaining with the top 6, so their fate is really in their own hands.

Everton. Well here they are again, one year after surviving a long, hard fought relegation battle, the Toffees find themselves in another fight to avoid dropping off to the Championship for the first time in the history of the EPL. Sean Dyche has been brought in to right the ship of Evertonian despair, and he has had some initial success. The club has only claimed seven points since the New Year (eight games) and need to find a way score goals if they want to stay up, having scored a league worst 17 goals in their first 24 matches. Everton have five matches remaining against the top 6 clubs and only four matches remaining against the other relegation battlers, so the path will not be easy.

Bournemouth. We all had our concerns about the Cherries staying up in the EPL this season after making it back up to the EPL. They did not seem to make much of a financial commitment to staying in the EPL, and they are very much in real danger of dropping straight back down. Five points from their last eight matches sees them placed in 19th, level on points with Everton. Of all the teams in the relegation battle the Cherries have the best fixture list, playing against other relegation battlers five times and only playing the top 6 clubs three times. The path is there, but is this club good enough to find their way out?

Southampton. The Saints have fallen off the pace a bit, and find themselves in the dreaded 20th position, but only four points away from 17th. Ruben Selles is now in charge at St. Mary's and will try and do what the prior two managers this season could not, claim points from matches. The Saints have only claimed 6 points since the New Year, and have a difficult finishing schedule, playing the top 6 clubs five more times and only facing other relegation battlers four times. The numbers do not look good, so the South Coast fans will need a miracle from Selles to find safety.


Mid-Week Matches

We have a couple very important Relegation matches today, as two of our relegation battlers hit the road looking to claim vital away points.

Arsenal v. Everton (1:45pm, USA Network, Emirates Stadium). Arsenal will host the Toffees, looking for some revenge for a 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park in Sean Dyche's first match in charge. The Gunners are holding on to their top spot in the league, and will be looking to extend their lead to five points with a win over Everton. Everton have struggled away from home this season and at the Emirates in general. Everton head to Emirates Stadium, not only with a poor record at Arsenal they have won only once in 26 matches and lost 21 times but having struggled on the road this season. The Toffees have only tasted victory in one of their last 13 Premier League away matches, a 2-1 victory at Southampton in October, drawing five and losing seven.

Liverpool v. Wolverhampton Wanderers (2:00pm, Peacock, Anfield). Wolves travel up north to Liverpool to visit a struggling Liverpool club, still trying to find their way back into European positions at the top of the EPL, while Wolves are looking to solidify their spot outside the relegation zone. These two clubs met at the Molineaux in early February, and Wolves came away with an unforgettable 3-0 victory, so to say they would like a repeat performance would be an understatement. Liverpool have not allowed a goal in the EPL since that match, so things could be a bit tougher for the Wolves tonight.

Enjoy the Games!!!
jeffk
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Thanks again for doing this!
Aston94
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Arsenal 4-0 Everton
Liverpool 2-0 Wolverhampton

Everton and Wolves both drop complete eggs on the road in crucial matches, both showing why they are in this battle.
Furlock Bones
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Everton pulled a Houdini on us last year. But I believe our faith we will be redeemed this year.
deadbq03
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I try to avoid wishing ill-will on anyone, but I wouldn't be sad at all if Pickford got relegated.
Showstopper
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I don't think either were crucial given that I thought both would lose easily. I know Liverpool is down, but … man, their lineup always looks pretty good.

Crucial games this weekend to me;
Forest v Everton (If Everton doesn't win, their chances of staying up look really bad)
Southampton v Leicester (both need the points pretty bad, although obviously Southam needs them most at 20)
Leeds v Chelsea (Chelsea is opposite of Liverpool for me personally; they have expensive players, but the words "hot mess" comes to mind. Leeds really needs to figure out how to get at least a point IMO)
Aston94
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Showstopper said:

I don't think either were crucial given that I thought both would lose easily. I know Liverpool is down, but … man, their lineup always looks pretty good.

Crucial games this weekend to me;
Forest v Everton (If Everton doesn't win, their chances of staying up look really bad)
Southampton v Leicester (both need the points pretty bad, although obviously Southam needs them most at 20)
Leeds v Chelsea (Chelsea is opposite of Liverpool for me personally; they have expensive players, but the words "hot mess" comes to mind. Leeds really needs to figure out how to get at least a point IMO)

Every game in the relegation battle is crucial!!!!!!!



Some are just more crucial than others, I will work on my adjectives from here on out so you fon't have to go too deep into their meaning.
Faustus
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Love this thread even though I just started following it last season.

Cheers.
akm91
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deadbq03 said:

I try to avoid wishing ill-will on anyone, but I wouldn't be sad at all if Pickford got relegated.
For me, Pickford has the most punchable face in EPL
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
deadbq03
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akm91 said:

deadbq03 said:

I try to avoid wishing ill-will on anyone, but I wouldn't be sad at all if Pickford got relegated.
For me, Pickford has the most punchable face in EPL
It's still Foden for me anytime punchable faces comes up. But Pickford is clearly #2 in my book. It gets a bit murky after that with lots of contenders like Richarlison, Fernandez, etc.
akm91
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deadbq03 said:

akm91 said:

deadbq03 said:

I try to avoid wishing ill-will on anyone, but I wouldn't be sad at all if Pickford got relegated.
For me, Pickford has the most punchable face in EPL
It's still Foden for me anytime punchable faces comes up. But Pickford is clearly #2 in my book. It gets a bit murky after that with lots of contenders like Richarlison, Fernandez, etc.
Foden is #2 for me.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
oh no
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I'd like to see a big dog like Everton or West Ham get relegated in lieu of a club that currently has three American players (Leeds). Hard to imagine Southampton and Bournemouth climbing out of the bottom 3.
Furlock Bones
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akm91 said:

deadbq03 said:

I try to avoid wishing ill-will on anyone, but I wouldn't be sad at all if Pickford got relegated.
For me, Pickford has the most punchable face in EPL


Last year Everton was the three musketeers of punchaboe faces. Pickford, Richarlison, and Lampard. I really really wanted them to go down. Richarlison is one of the players I dislike the most. He went to the Neymar school of diving.
Aston94
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Big weekend in the Relegation Battle, with some, dare I say, crucial matches. Everton and Wolves did themselves no favors in mid-week, both losing on the road to top half clubs (Liverpool is in the top half right?). We have a couple of "six-pointers" this weekend pitting relegation battlers against one another, so there could be some significant movement in the standings this weekend.

Current Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. Nottingham Forest 24 25
14. Leicester City 24 24
15. Wolves 25 24
16. West Ham 24 23
17. Leeds United 24 22
18. Everton 25 21
19. Bournemouth 24 21
20. Southampton 24 18

Weekend Fixtures:

Saturday, March 4

Arsenal v. Bournemouth (9am, Peacock, Emirates Stadium). The Cherries will travel north to London on Saturday, looking to improve on Everton's dismal 4-0 defeat against Arsenal mid-week. Arsenal took care of Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium, 3-0, way back in August, so getting anything from this match will be seen as a bonus for the Cherries. Arsenal come in to the match in good form, having won their last three matches. Bournemouth have started scratching out points as of late, claiming 5 points from their last five matches (1-2-2). Scoring goals had been the issue for the Cherries, however, as they have averaged just 0.92 goals per match this season.

Brighton v. West Ham (9am, Peacock, Amex Stadium). West Ham will travel to the South Coast Saturday for a match-up with their greatest nemesis, Brighton. The two sides have met 11 times in the EPL, and West Ham have yet to beat Brighton, going 0-6-5 against the Seagulls in their EPL matches. Brighton claimed a 2-0 victory over the Hammers at London Stadium back in August, and will be seeking to continue their run of form against the London club and make the winless streak 12 for West Ham. The Hammers are coming off their best victory of the season, a 4-0 defeat of Nottingham Forest. West Ham had claimed points in 4 of their last 5 matches (2-1-2 record for 8 points), a run that has helped them stay out of the bottom three positions for now.

Chelsea v. Leeds (9am, USA Network, Stamford Bridge). The Whites will travel to West London on Saturday, seeking to claim a second EPL victory in a row, as they will be playing a Chelsea club that is struggling to say the least. Leeds claimed a very impressive 3-0 win over the Blues at Elland Road back in August, but a lot has changed for both clubs since then. Chelsea come in scoring just 0.96 goals per match in the EPL, and allowing 1.04, which is quite amazing considering the collective talent on their roster. Leeds have claimed 4 points from their last 5 matches (going 1-3-1) so that rate needs to improve if they are going to avoid a spot in the bottom three.

Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Tottenham (9am, Peacock, Molineaux Stadium). Wolves will welcome Tottenham to the Midlands on Saturday, seeking to improve on their disappointing loss at Anfield in the midweek. Spurs have been in good form as of late, winning 4 of their last 5 EPL matches, and they claimed a 1-0 victory over Wolves when the clubs met at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium back in August. Wolves score an anemic 0.72 goals per match (18 goals total in the EPL), while Spurs have scored 46 goals, or 1.84 goals per match, which is good for third in the league. So Wolves will want this match to be a tight low scoring affair where they can maybe nick a goal and claim a 1-0 win or get a draw and a point and move on.

Southampton v. Leicester City. (11:30am, NBC, St. Mary's Stadium). In our first "six-pointer" of the weekend, the Saints will welcome Leicester to the South Coast for an important match in the battle for safety. The Foxes find themselves in the middle of a relegation battle, something they have not experienced much over the prior few seasons, but their club owners elected not to spend much on the roster last summer, and the age and lack of depth on the squad is beginning to show. Southampton for their part have looked like a relegation squad all season, and are hoping that they can somehow find their way out of the bottom 3. The Saints did claim a rare 2-1 victory when the two clubs met in August at King Power Stadium, and both clubs will feel this game presents them with an opportunity to secure three points in the battle for safety.

Sunday, March 5

Nottingham Forest v. Everton. (8:00 am, USA Network, City Grounds). Everton will travel to the midlands to face Forest in a vital 6 pointer. Everton looked terrible in a 4-0 loss to Arsenal in London in the mid-week, and the Toffees have to hope they got that loss out of their system before taking on Forest. Everton have claimed two victories since Sean Dyche took over in early February, going 2-3-0 in the EPL since Dyche took the helm. Forest for their part have plodded through their inaugural season back in the EPL, always hovering in or near the relegation zone. Forest have claimed 5 points from their last five matches (1-2-2) and are holding onto a spot four points clear of the bottom three. So a win by Forest and they will be 7 points clear of 18th place Everton, and can start dreaming of a second season back in the EPL. Meanwhile a win by Everton and the gap between the two clubs will be just one point. Neither team scores many goals, as they are last (Everton) and second from last (Forest) in Goals scored this season, so expect a tight, low scoring affair at the City Grounds this weekend.

Enjoy the weekend!
chjoak
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I think Southampton & Bournemouth are screwed. Think they stay in the bottom 2 to finish the season. The 3rd spot is tough to call right now. My desired pick... West Ham.

As weird as it sounds, I honestly think it could do Southampton some good to get relegated. They have a good young core that needs more playing time but they aren't quite good enough for the EPL yet. If they go down, It forces their hands with selling some guys that can get them a little cash while unblocking playing time for players that will likely be their next wave of EPL starters. If they make a few smart moves in the summer, they could easily be back in the EPL after 1 season.
Dre_00
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The problem is they're likely to sell that young talent if they go down. Lavia for example is going to have a lot of suitors from EPL clubs especially since City's buyback clause doesn't kick in till 2024. He and others are likely sold this summer if they're relegated.
oh no
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West ham down early

Bournemouth up early

Leeds tied with Chelsea still but don't look good
Aston94
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Everton-Forest match is showing the greatness that is a relegation battle. Crazy game 35 minutes in.
Mathguy64
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Between the starting GK on team Punchable Face on one side and the human cue ball Jon Jo Shelvy on the other I'm struggling to find someone to hate more. I'm hoping for 30 minutes of pure ****housery by Everton to win me over.
Mathguy64
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The play at 86' in this match perfectly encapsulates this match. Ball in the air that an EVE player is going up for. A NF mid looks at EVE player 100% of the time to cut him. Then he half misses and gets a dark arts elbow to the head for his troubles. Outstanding work boys. Well done.
Showstopper
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Everton are pretty determined to get relegated. Their next 5 are: Brentford, Chelsea, Spurs, ManU, and Fulham. Hard to predict just a ton of points there. Even teams like Brentford and Fulham which looked manageable before the season have been significantly better than Everton. They desperately needed three today. I don't think one against Forest was enough.
AgUpintheNorth1
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Quote:

Everton are pretty determined to get relegated. Their next 5 are: Brentford, Chelsea
The first two aren't so bad
10Aggie10
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Brighton does indeed run their streak to 12 versus West Ham, winning 4-0
Aston94
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My apologies for not updating earlier, but sometimes life gets in the way. Last weekend did nothing but tighten the race, as we now have 6 teams within 3 points of each other at the bottom of the table. It is shaping up to be a wild finish.

Last Weekend Results
Southampton 1-0 Leicester City
Wolverhampton 1-0 Tottenham
Chelsea 1-0 Leeds
Brighton 4-0 West Ham
Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest 2-2 Everton

Current Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. Wolves 25 27
14. Nottingham Forest 25 26
15. Leicester City 25 24
16. West Ham 25 23
17. Leeds United 25 22
18. Everton 25 22
19. Southampton 25 21
20. Bournemouth 25 21

Upcoming Fixtures:
Saturday
Bournemouth v. Liverpool (6:30am, Vitality Stadium, USA Network). The Cherries will be looking to rebound from last weekend's heartbreaking defeat when they welcome Liverpool to the South Coast. Bournemouth had a 2 goal lead over top of the table Arsenal, but saw the three points disappear into nothing, as the Gunners came roaring back to take the win. Liverpool are coming off a 7-0 thrashing of Manchester United, so they will be looking to continue their turn around as they battle for a Champion's league place. The two clubs met at Anfield in August, and the Reds humiliated the Cheries with a 9-0 defeat, so Bournemouth will need to do much better this weekend to scratch their way out of the bottom three.

Everton v. Brentford (9 am, Goodison Park, Peacock). The High-flying Bees will travel to the northwest and face a struggling Everton club. Brentford are currently in 9th, safely clear of all relegation battles, while Everton find themselves in the bottom three. Everton claimed a good point on the road at Forest last weekend, but now need to start winning home matches like this if they are to stay in the EPL. The two clubs drew 1-1 at Brentford in August, and Everton have yet to beat the Bees in the EPL, going 0-2-1 over the last two years against the upstart Brentford club.

Leeds United v. Brighton (9am Elland Road, Peacock). Leeds are looking to win a vital home match as they welcome the Seagulls to Elland Road. Leeds have only claimed 4 points from their last 5 matches, a trend that has seen the whites drop into a tie on points with 17th place Everton. Leeds have looked dangerous of late, but are struggling to score, claiming just one goal in their last 4 matches. Brighton find themselves in a relatively new position for them...out of the relegation battle, as the Gulls currently sit in 8th on 38 points.

Leicester v. Chelsea (9am, King Power Stadium, USA Network). It has been a few years since Leicester was fully involved in a relegation fight, but here they are, holding on to 15th place in the table, just 2 points clear of 17th. The Foxes have lost their last three matches, not scoring a goal in any of the three. Chelsea come to the Midlands looking to build off their 1-0 win last weekend over Leeds and their 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. Chelsea claimed a 2-1 win over the Foxes at Stamford Bridge way back in August and are 4-0-1 against Leicester in their last 5 EPL matchups. So this may not be the best weekend for the Foxes to turn things around, but it better happen quickly, or they will find themselves in the the bottom three hoping to avoid the drop.

Tottenham v. Nottingham Forest (9am, Tottenham Stadium, Peacock). Forest will travel to the capital city to visit a Spurs club coming off a rough week that has seen them lose to relegation battler Wolverhampton and get booted from the Champions League by AC Milan. Nottingham have claimed just 2 points from their last 4, including a disappointing 2-2 draw with Everton at home. Those results have kept Forest just on the edge of the relegation battle, 4 points clear of 17th place Everton. Spurs claimed a 2-0 win at the City Ground back in August, back when the Forest squad was still introducing themselves to one another.

Sunday
Manchester United v. Southampton (9am, Old Trafford, Peacock). The Saints will venture north to Manchester on Sunday, looking to build off their impressive 1-0 win over Leicester last weekend. They will be playing an opponent in United who were rolling in the EPL and in Europe, until last weekends shock defeat at Liverpool. United claimed a 1-0 win over the Saints back in August at St. Mary's Stadium, and Southampton has not claimed a win over United in their last 5 matchups. A draw at Old Trafford would seem like a victory for Southampton.

West Ham v. Aston Villa (9am, London Stadium, USA Network). The Hammers appear to be in this battle for the long haul, as they just cannot seem to put together back to back good performances. After a great 4-0 win over Forest, the club then travelled to Brighton last weekend and laid a complete egg, losing 4-0. Aston Villa meanwhile have won 2 matches in a row following losses in their three matches before that. West Ham have won 5 matches in a row over Villa, including a 1-0 win at Villa Park back in August, so the Hammers will be hoping that streak continues on Sunday.

Newcastle v. Wolverhampton (11:30 am, St. James' Park, USA Network). Wolves will be looking to claim two succesive wins over top 6 teams as they travel to the Northeast for a visit to Newcastle United. A 1-0 win over Tottenham last time out was Wolves most impressive win of the season, and got the club to a point where they are almost out of the relegation battle. Newcastle meanwhile has seen their form drop, going winless in their last five EPL matches, a run that has seen the Magpies drop out of the top 4 places and into 6th. The clubs battled to a 1-1 draw at the Molineaux in August, a result Wolves would be happy to duplicate on Sunday.

Enjoy the Weekend!
agdoc2001
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Good stuff, Aston! Thanks again for doing this.
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oh no
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Bournemouth up early on Liverpool
Aston94
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oh no said:

Bournemouth up early on Liverpool

They are up, not sure about the early. Game is in the 86th minute!
oh no
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Well, they went up early. Still holding!
oh no
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And over
Furlock Bones
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What a W for Bournemouth.
Aston94
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Bournemouth's win completely throws the relegation battle into a frenzy! It is going to be a wild couple of months!
oh no
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Hell of a 3 pts for Bournemouth. Not good for our Yanks at Leeds. I'll be watching that one today.
Ghost of Andrew Eaton
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Two good weeks in a row for Bournemouth.
If you say you hate the state of politics in this nation and you don't get involved in it, you obviously don't hate the state of politics in this nation.
10Aggie10
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This might be a stupid question, but I have been curious why you're leaving Crystal Palace off of these? From my unlearned perspective, it seems like they might be in the mix for possible relegation.

Again, I readily admit this is nowhere close to my wheelhouse, but from a casual glance their profile seems more likely for relegation than say Leicester and West Ham.

If it's dumb, please take it easy on me but definitely feel free to educate me. I'm genuinely curious and looking to learn
TXAggie2011
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I think Palace is absolutely in danger and probably needs some attention here. At least until they finally score a goal again.
 
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