EPL Relegation Watch 2023

42,369 Views | 586 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Faustus
Aston94
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West Ham definitely needed this more than Bournemouth today. You are right about relegation teams coming out of the bottom 5, but things have been so tight this year, a fall in form for the Cherries for a couple weeks could get them back in the middle of the fight. I hope not, but they are right on the edge.
Aston94
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Another topsy turvy weekend in the relegation fight, full of the normal disappointment, angst and unabashed joy we see all at once in a relegation battle. Always remember, these teams are in this position for a reason, and there will be heartbreak along the way. We have some very, very important midweek games to get ready for as well.

Weekend Results

Southampton 3-3 Arsenal. I am willing to bet that if you had asked any Southampton fan prior to their match with league leading Arsenal if they would be happy with a draw, they would have said absolutely. But then there you are, at the Emirates, leading 3-1 in the 88th minute, and you have to start believing you are actually going to get all 3 points. Unfortunately reality set in and the Saints remembered their place, conceding 2 late goals to take away 2 of the three points they were so close to grabbing. Carlos Alcarez had put the Saints up early in the 1st minute on a beautiful shot, and Theo Walcott doubled the lead in the 14th minute on a counter attack. Arsenal pulled one back in the 20th minute through Gabriel Martinelli. Southampton increased the lead back to two goals in the 66th minute and it looked like this was going to be a glorious day for the traveling Saints. But 88th minute goals by Martin Odegaard and a 90th minute goal from Bukayo Saka brought the Gunners level, saving the league leaders from the humiliation of losing on home turf to the 20th place team.

Leeds 1-2 Fulham. Leeds looked like a club out of ideas on Saturday when they lost to Fulham at Craven Cottage 2-1, in a game that did not feel that close. Leeds and Fulham battled back and forth in the first half without many clear cut chances, and it looked like we were headed for a goalless draw. But Harry Wilson was the beneficiary of a deflection that dropped to his feet in the box, and he made no mistake in putting Fulham ahead in the 58th minute. Andres Pereira doubled the lead in the 72nd and it looked like the match was all but over. Leeds did get back into the match thanks to a Palhinha own goal off a shot from Luis Sinesterra, but the Whites could not find a second, and dropped their 4th in last 5.

Crystal Palace 0-0 Everton. Everton scratched their way to a drab 0-0 draw at Selhurst Park, grabbing a point off an Eagles squad who looked like they know their relegation battle is over and are on a bit of cruise control. Neither team looked great, and Everton looked to have the better opportunities. But a red card to Mason Holgate in the 80th minute meant that Everton were happy to sit back and hold on to the point.

Leicester 2-1 Wolves. Leicester came back from an early 1-0 deficit to claim all three points and pull themselves out of the bottom 3 for now. Massive result for the Foxes who were desperate for a win. When Matheus Cunha put the Wolves ahead in the 13th minute it looked like a repeat of the performances we have seen from the Foxes of late. But Jamie Vardy drew a penalty from a bad foul by Jose Sa in the box in the 34th minute, and Kelechi Iheanacho converted to level the match. Timothy Castagne put the Foxes ahead on left footed shot off a Victor Kristiansen cross. Wolves are still sitting very comfortable, but the result was mammoth for Leicester and their hopes of safety.

Liverpool 3-2 Nottingham Forest. Forest battled but could not hold on at Anfield, as Liverpool claimed all three points, leaving Forest down in the bottom three. Neco Williams scored in the 51st minute to level the score following a 47th minute from Diogo Jota. Jota then scored again in the 55th minute to put the Reds back up. It looked like Morgan Gibbs-White had gotten Forest a valuable road point when he scored in the 67th, but Mohamed Salah immediately answered in the 70th to put the Reds up for good. Forest showed a lot of heart and effort on the day, but it did not result in points, which are very much in need for the club right now.

Bournemouth 0-4 West Ham. The Cherries welcomed West Ham to the South Coast, and had to feel pretty confident before the match given their recent run of form. West Ham definitely came in with a point to prove, and they did prove that they are not going down without a fight, as they thoroughly dominated the Cherries 4-0 off of goals by Antonio, Paqueta, Declan Rice and Pablo Fornals. West Ham sat back and let Bournemouth hold the ball, destroying the Cherries on the counter attack all game long. Big win for West Ham who are inching their way towards safety.

Current Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. West Ham 31 34
14. Wolves 32 34
15. Bournemouth 32 33
16. Leeds United 32 29
17. Leicester City 32 28
18. Everton 32 28
19. Nottingham Forest 32 27
20. Southampton 32 24

We have a full mid-week slate this week and there are some very big relegation matches (will hopefully come back and preview these, but alas work is in the way today).

Mid-Week Games

Tuesday
Wolves v. Crystal Palace (1:30pm, Molineaux Stadium, Peacock)
Leeds v. Leicester (2pm, Elland Road, USA Network)

Wednesday
Nottingham Forest v. Brighton (1:30pm, City Grounds, Peacock)
West Ham v. Liverpool (1:45pm, London Stadium, Peacock)

Thursday
Everton v. Newcastle (1:45pm, Goodison Park, USA Network)
Southampton v. Bournemouth (1:45pm, St. Mary's Stadium, Peacock)

Enjoy!
Aston94
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AG
Two relegation matches today, one of them I would qualify as the biggest relegation match we have had so far this season.

Current Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. West Ham 31 34
14. Wolves 32 34
15. Bournemouth 32 33
16. Leeds United 32 29
17. Leicester City 32 28
18. Everton 32 28
19. Nottingham Forest 32 27
20. Southampton 32 24


Today's Games

Wolves v. Crystal Palace (1:30pm, Molineaux Stadium, Peacock). Wolverhampton will look to erase a disappointing loss at Leicester over the weekend, as they welcome Crystal Palace to the midlands. Incredibly, Palace will be playing their 5th consecutive match against a club fighting relegation, the Eagles have gone 3-0-1 in the prior 4 matches for 10 points, a run that pull them out of the relegation battle themselves. At 34 points, Wolves are just on the fringe of safety, and one more win should do it, given the lack of form from the clubs behind them. Palace claimed a 2-1 victory when the clubs met in October in London, and have won four straight matches over Wolves.

Leeds v. Leicester (2pm, Elland Road, USA Network). Biggest game (so far) of the relegation battle. These two clubs find themselves just out of the bottom three, as the Foxes are only out on goal differential and Leeds are one point clear of 18th place. Claim all three points today and whoever wins will put some space between themselves and relegation, lose today and you know you are likely to be fighting for safety for the remainder of the season. Both clubs have gone 1-4-0 in their last 5, thus the reason they are where thy are in the table. Leicester's issue has been scoring goals, as the club has scored only 5 goals in their previous 5, meanwhile Leeds have had trouble allowing goals as of late, conceding 18 goals in their last 5. So it will be the stoppable force v. movable object at Elland Road this afternoon. I imagine Leicester will try and sit back and try and attack Leeds on the counter, so the question will be how industrious Leeds is going forward and if they protect themselves on defense while attacking the Foxes. Will be an interesting watch and lots of stress will fill the stands in Leeds.

Enjoy the games.
Rudyjax
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Got a work call. What happened to the Leicester goal? It was a banger.
Aston94
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Chuck Cunningham said:

Got a work call. What happened to the Leicester goal? It was a banger.


Offside on a deflection, lucky break for Leeds who took advantage. 1-0 Leeds in the 30th minute.
oh no
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Leeds blows late lead. 1-1 in the 80'
carl spacklers hat
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oh no said:

Leeds blows late lead. 1-1 in the 80'
FIFY
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Dre_00
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Patrick Bamford. My goodness sir.

(that's not a good surprised face)
Aston94
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My lord Patrick Bamford is such an utter disaster. Wow.
Aston94
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Finals
Wolves 2-0 Palace. Wolves essentially secure their place on EPL for next season.

Leeds 1-1 Leicester. Either team could look back and wonder how they didn't claim all three points today. Both seem to be destined to be a part of the relegation fight until the bitter end.

Updated Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. Wolves 33 37
14. West Ham 31 34
15. Bournemouth 32 33
16. Leeds United 33 30
17. Leicester City 33 29
18. Everton 32 28
19. Nottingham Forest 32 27
20. Southampton 32 24


carl spacklers hat
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Name another sport where the battle to avoid the bottom three is more entertaining than the battle for first!
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Aston94
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AG
Two more relegation battle games on tap for today, with the big game today obviously being the fight for first between City and Arsenal, as the games keep coming at a rapid pace now:

Updated Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. Wolves 33 37
14. West Ham 31 34
15. Bournemouth 32 33
16. Leeds United 33 30
17. Leicester City 33 29
18. Everton 32 28
19. Nottingham Forest 32 27
20. Southampton 32 24

Today's Games

Nottingham Forest v. Brighton (1:30pm, City Ground, Peacock). Forest have been on a downward spiral, losing four straight and going winless in their last 11 matches, claiming only 3 points out of their last 11 matches (3 out of a possible 33 points is not good). Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 3-1-1 in their last five EPL matches and have European aspirations, as the Gulls sit in 8th place but have games in hand on the clubs above them. Winning over relegation battler Forest would be a key if they are serious about claiming a place in Europe. The clubs drew 0-0 in October back at the Amex, but both will be hungry for all three points today. Should be a good match, look for Brighton to control possession and Forest to try and hit them on the counter-attack.

West Ham v. Liverpool (1:45pm, London Stadium, Peacock). West Ham will be looking to pull themselves completely out of the relegation discussion as they welcome the Reds to East London. The Hammers have been on a good run, going 3-1-1 over their last five matches and pulling themselves out of the relegation battle in the process. A win today would all but assure their safety. Liverpool, meanwhile, still has European aspirations and will need to continue their recent run of form (no losses in last 4) if they have any hope of Champions League football next year, although Europa League is much more likely at this point, as they sit in 7th, 9 points behind fourth place United. Liverpool has been a bit of a mess on the road this season, having gone 4-8-4 away from the friendly confines of Anfield.

Enjoy the day!

Aston94
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AG
Forest 1-1 Brighton in 51st minute.
West Ham 1-1 Liverpool at Half.
planoaggie123
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Forest 2 - BHA 1
Aston94
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Huge result for Forest as they get the 3-1 win over Brighton. Pulls them out of the bottom 3 for now.

West Ham stick around in the relegation battle with a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool.
deadbq03
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At this point, I'm resigning myself to Leeds going down, and I will hope all the Americans find a new home so I can stop caring about that horrifically mismanaged club.
carl spacklers hat
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If (although "when" is looking more likely) Leeds are relegated, do they sell off half the team as a result?
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
deadbq03
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No idea. You'd like to think that the deal with the 49ers would die, but maybe they'll try to buy it on the cheap.

If they manage to stay up, I truly hope they get new management.

As a Leipzig fan, I've had nothing but bad things to say about their front office since 2020 when they pulled this horrible bit of business and are still getting punished for it:

https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/leeds-ordered-to-pay-huge-fee-to-ex-player-jean-kevin-augustin-over-breach-of-contract/blt69dc0cbc94e8f64a

They officially settled with Leipzig for 15mil (I personally think they overpaid a bit for Adams as a backdoor off-record way of compensation, too). This latest fee will go to the player whose contract they breached by not taking him on when they were supposed to.

They were dumb for getting into a loan with mandatory fee that wasn't also tied to minimum appearances. They were dumb for trying to use Covid to wiggle out of it.

22/23 could very well be a year that they get relegated and also pay 40MM for a player who played like a total of 90 mins back in 2020. These are the kinds of screwups that can break a club.

Americans have given me an excuse to follow them, I like the intensity of their fanbase, but man - just a rotten front office.
Aston94
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I really love mid-week relegation matches, they seem to bring out an element of cray just about every season! This week has been no exception as the two games yesterday were wide open, end to end stuff. We have two more on tap today, with a big six-pointer in the offering.

Yesterday's Results

Nottingham Forest 3-1 Brighton. Huge result for Forest as they excelled on the counter attack against a team that I think is safe to say was still suffering a bit of a hangover from their FA Cup exit on Sunday. Forest caught them at the right time and took full advantage. When Brennan Johnson missed an early PK opportunity for Forest and Facundo Buonanotte put Brighton up in the 38th minute it looked like another day of disappointment for Forest, but they forced Brighton midfielder Pascal Gross to put the ball into his own net seconds before half-time, and then were really buoyed by that goal and took it to Brighton in the second half. Danilo put Forest ahead following a break off a sloppy pass from the Brighton backline, and then Gibbs-White converted a pk in stoppage time to seal the win. Huge three points for Forest.

West Ham 1-2 Liverpool. A header from Joel Matip gave Liverpool a 2-1 win over the Hammers to end a frenetic end-to-end game at the London Stadium. West Ham took the lead in stunning fashion in the 12th minute when Lucas Paquette cut in from the left and played a one-two with Michail Antonio before firing home from the edge of the area. That lead lasted only six minutes as Dutch striker Cody Gapko received a pass in a central position, taking a touch before quickly unleashing a lovely bouncing shot that nestled in the far corner. Matip got the winner in the 67th minute when he powered home a close-range header from Andy Robertson's corner to give his side the lead. West Ham had a late shout for a penalty turned down when the ball struck the arm of substitute Thiago Alcantara as he went in for a tackle, but the referee waved away their appeals and VAR did not come to their aid as Liverpool hung on for the win and left the Hammers needing a few more points to be assured of safety.

Updated Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. Wolves 33 37
14. West Ham 32 34
15. Bournemouth 32 33
16. Leeds United 33 30
17. Nottingham Forest 33 30
18. Leicester City 33 29
19. Everton 32 28
20. Southampton 32 24

Today's Games

Everton v. Newcastle (1:45pm, Goodison Park, USA Network). The Toffees will look to keep pace with Forest, Leeds and Leicester who all claimed points in the midweek, as they will come into their match with Newcastle in 19th position, but with a win will move out of the bottom three. Everton are winless in their last five, going 0-2-3 over that time for 3 points, which has kept them in touch with teams out of the bottom three. Newcastle come in off the high of beating Spurs like a drum over the weekend, and have gone 4-1-0 in their last five. They are currently in third place, but need to keep winning to hold onto one of the Champions League spots. The Toons claimed a 1-0 victory in October when the clubs met at St. James' Park.

Southampton v. Bournemouth (1:45pm, St. Mary's Stadium, Peacock). The Saints are falling off the pace, and will desperately need three points when they host their south coast rival Bournemouth. The Cherries will be looking to claim another victory and further distance themselves from the bottom three. Southampton come in off arguably their best, but most heartbreaking game of the season, a 3-3 draw with Arsenal at the Emirates, and have only claimed 2 points from their last 5 (0-3-2), while the Cherries have been in their best form of the season, going 3-2-0 over their last five, a run that has propelled them to the verge of safety. The Saints claimed a surprise 1-0 victory at Vitality Stadium when the clubs met in October, and look for Southampton to really push for another three points from this match.

Enjoy the games!
Aston94
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Bournemouth 1-0 Southampton
Newcastle 1-0 Everton

Both games in 56th minute.

Not looking good for the clubs in the bottom 3 today.
Aston94
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Bournemouth 1-1 Southampton, Saints level

Newcastle 4-1 Everton, Yuck.
planoaggie123
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Looks like that goal got reversed for Southampton??
Aston94
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planoaggie123 said:

Looks like that goal got reversed for Southampton??
VAR giveth, VAR taketh away.
Aston94
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So Today's finals:

Newcastle 4-1 Everton
Bournemouth 1-0 Southampton

Updated Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
13. Wolves 33 37
14. Bournemouth 33 36
15. West Ham 32 34
16. Leeds United 33 30
17. Nottingham Forest 33 30
18. Leicester City 33 29
19. Everton 33 28
20. Southampton 33 24

So looks like we are down to 5 teams fighting to avoid 3 relegation spots, or more accurately, 4 teams fighting to avoid 2 spots, as Southampton look done. Wolves, Bournemouth and West Ham all are right on the verge of safety, and the teams behind them don't look like they are capable of putting together enough points to pull those clubs back down into the battle.

Everton are in real danger, as they seem lost. Leicester, Forest and Leeds all seem to be on the edge for the last spot.

Here is a quick look at the games remaining for those clubs in the battle:

Leeds: @ Bournemouth, @ Man City, Newcastle, @ West Ham, Spurs--That is a tough run in of games, best case they get a disinterested West Ham and Spurs to end the season, really need to get a win at Bournemouth this weekend.

Nottingham Forest: @ Brentford, Southampton, @ Chelsea, Arsenal, @ Palace--Some games in there where points should be available, need to get something out of the next 2.

Leicester City: Everton, @ Fulham, Liverpool, @ Newcastle, West Ham--Match against Everton this weekend is largest relegation match of the season, no doubt.

Everton: @Leicester, @Brighton, Man City, @ Wolves, Bournemouth--They better get points against Leicester or goodbye to the Toffees. They better hop for disinterested Wolves and Bournemouth down the stretch.

Southampton: @ Newcastle, @ Forest, Fulham, @ Brighton, Liverpool--Saints are going down.

My predicted final points:
16. Nottingham Forest 34
17. Leicester City 33
18. Leeds United 33
19. Everton 32
20. Southampton 26

Leicester have an 8 goal lead on Leeds in goal differential, so don't see that changing. My predicted bottom three right now are Leeds, Everton and Southampton.
deadbq03
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Good shift today. Thanks for all the hard work.
Aston94
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Thank you sir, was nice to have an afternoon where I could take in some of the action!
Faustus
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It probably makes me a bad person, but as a relatively new follower to EPL I've been rooting for Everton to go down since last season given their standing as PL stalwarts simply for the drama.

Maybe if I'd followed the team when Howard, Donovan, and all the other Americans were on it I'd feel differently, but I watched and rooted for Newcastle yesterday.

I follow the 1800 page relegation thread on their board.
https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/relegation-2022-23.115675/

Last year's relegation thread on TexAgs let me dip my toe in the water, and it's a lot of fun.
Everton fans referring to Liverpool as RS (right ****e? real ****e?) is pretty funny too.

Aston94
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Today is the one day off from EPL action before we begin again on Saturday. Will be another weekend full of matches for the relegation battlers. I am taking Wolves off the watch list, only to be put back on if several of the bottom dwellers go on a run that would bring them back into the fray. Bournemouth are a point or so from safety, but will leave them on for now, especially since they are playing a relegation battler this weekend. West Ham are one more victory from being taken off the list as well. As mentioned before, it really does seem to be down to a 5 team race for the three relegation spots, but will leave the Hammers and Cherries in the discussion for now.

Updated Standings
Place Club Games Played Points
14. Bournemouth 33 36
15. West Ham 32 34
16. Leeds United 33 30
17. Nottingham Forest 33 30
18. Leicester City 33 29
19. Everton 33 28
20. Southampton 33 24

Key Weekend Matches

Saturday

Crystal Palace v. West Ham (6:30am, Selhurst Park, USA Network). West Ham makes the short journey to Selhurst Park for a London Derby on Saturday, as the Hammers will be seeking another win to get them completely out of the relegation discussion. This will be Palace's 6th match in a row against a club in the relegation battle, and their 3-1-1 record over the last five is what pulled the club out of the battle themselves. The Hammers are 2-2-1 over their last five, a run that has put them on the fringes of safety themselves. These two teams generally play tight, back and forth matches, so should be an entertaining game on Saturday morning.


Brentford v. Nottingham Forest (9am, Community Stadium, USA Network). Forest will travel to West London on Saturday looking to build off their biggest win of the season on Wednesday when they took down Brighton 3-1. The win ended a 11 match winless run for Forest and saw them pull themselves out of the bottom three for now. Brentford likewise will be coming in off a big win (2-0 over Chelsea) that ended a four game winless run for the Bees. Forest have been awful on the road this season collecting just 6 points from 16 matches for a 1-13-3 record. Conversely, Brentford have only lost twice at home this season going 7-2-7 at the Community Stadium this season. So a draw would probably be a good result for Forest, which was the result when the clubs played at City Ground in Nottingham back in November.

Sunday

Bournemouth v. Leeds United (8am, Vitality Stadium, Peacock). Leeds will make the long trip to the South Coast for a visit to Bournemouth, desperately needing to come back home with 3 points. Leeds have a very difficult run in of games, and going winless in their last four matches has not helped their situation. The Cherries conversely have gone 3-2-0 in their last five to pull themselves out of the relegation zone and almost to safety. Leeds won a 4-3 thriller when the clubs met in November at Elland Road, and the White will be seeking three more points on Sunday.

Newcastle v. Southampton (8am, St. James' Park, Peacock). Southampton will likewise be making a long trip, but will be heading from the south coast to the far north to take on Newcastle at the Tyne. The Saints are just about out of the relegation battle, but not in a good way, as they currently sit 20th and are six points below 17th. Newcastle are conversely looking to secure a Champions League position for next season, so they will be looking to take advantage of the struggling Saints, who will come in winless in their last 5. Newcastle destroyed the Saints at St. Mary's back in November, 4-1 and will be looking for more of the same on Sunday.

Monday
Leicester v. Everton (2pm, King Power Stadium, USA Network). This match has the feel of an elimination match, as the two clubs will meet on Monday sitting in 18th and 19th places. The winner of this match will climb out of the bottom 3 and the loser would fall to 19th place and face a steep, steep, uphill battle for safety. The importance of this game cannot be overstated, by far the biggest relegation match of the season. Leicester will come in having just drawn with Leeds at Elland Road in what was another huge match-up. A draw really does neither team here any good, as both need to start racking up points to get out of the bottom three. Everton have only won once all year away from Goodison Park, so it is a tall task for them on Monday night, and a draw truthfully helps them more than Leicester. The Foxes, for their part, have the second worst home record in the EPL this season, having only claimed 4 home victories in 16 opportunities. Big game under the Monday night lights, will be a must watch for sure!

Have a great weekend!
deadbq03
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AG
There's no shame in it.

The heart wants what the heart wants.
Aston94
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Faustus said:

It probably makes me a bad person, but as a relatively new follower to EPL I've been rooting for Everton to go down since last season given their standing as PL stalwarts simply for the drama.

Maybe if I'd followed the team when Howard, Donovan, and all the other Americans were on it I'd feel differently, but I watched and rooted for Newcastle yesterday.

I follow the 1800 page relegation thread on their board.
https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/relegation-2022-23.115675/

Last year's relegation thread on TexAgs let me dip my toe in the water, and it's a lot of fun.
Everton fans referring to Liverpool as RS (right ****e? real ****e?) is pretty funny too.


Interestingly, Everton are one of six English clubs who have never been relegated from the Premier League since its creation in 1992. The others are Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea, so the angst is real on the Merseyside. But the mismanagement of the club over the last 5 years has been so awful, it almost deserves a relegation.
GrapevineAg
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I hope that Everton does go down. They're not entitled to stay up just because, and it makes room for somebody else more deserving. EPL is more interesting with new faces.
chjoak
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I hope Leicester & West Ham go down down because... F them.
Mathguy64
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Everton had been skirting relegation for 2 years. It's their time. And LC deserves it after selling everyone off for cash.
Furlock Bones
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Mathguy64 said:

Everton had been skirting relegation for 2 years. It's their time. And LC deserves it after selling everyone off for cash.


Leicester were eventually going to crumble after their owner died. The son by accounts I have read is not the businessman his father was. Covid only exacerbated their fall since their income comes from travel. I'm truly surprised the son didn't go ahead and sell the club while they were firmly in the epl.
Furlock Bones
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Quite the early morning match. 5 goals in 30 minutes. 3-2 CP over West Ham.
 
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