Spurs off to a hot start for once

13,513 Views | 536 Replies | Last: 14 yr ago by sharkenleo
aggie_2001_2005
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I'm not sure, but from a quick glance at NBA.com, it appears that a Spurs / Bulls tie would come down to point differential on the season?

If so the Bulls will win the tiebreak.
agwin12
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AG
Bulls beat Boston. Still 1 game lead for Spurs.

Spurs (3)

Utah
@ Lakers
@ Phoenix

Bulls (4)

@ Cleveland
@ Orlando
@ New York
New Jersey
aggie_2001_2005
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Unless they rest their starters, I don't see Chicago dropping more than 1 game.

Assuming that happens, it only gives the Spurs just 1 mulligan game, assuming I was correct on the tiebreak scenario.

I still don't think I would expend much energy worrying about having HCA on the Bulls. Just go into round 1 healthy and worry about the rest if / when it gets here.
Iowaggie
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AG
Especially if the D. Howard's 18th technical is upheld as he will sit out the Bulls game.
agwin12
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AG
My guess is that Pop is not overly concerned about the overall #1 seed. Goal should be to get some rest for the Big 3, stay sharp and give the bench more PT based on their poor performance during the 6 game losing streak.
agwin12
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AG
From the Spurs report. I also posted on another thread.

"The Spurs, with more than a little help from the Los Angeles Lakers, have gone and sucked all the drama out of the final week of the season, securing the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed with three games to spare. Express-News staff writer Jeff McDonald examines what it all means:

How important is the top seed anyway?

In a way, Gregg Popovich’s lukewarm stock answer to that question — “you wouldn’t turn it down” — is on point. The top seed and accompanying home-court edge doesn’t guarantee a championship, but it can’t hurt either. Under Popovich, the Spurs have been a No. 1 seed on four other occasions, winning titles in 1999 and 2003. In 2001, they lost to the second-seeded Lakers in the conference finals. In 2006, after winning a club-record 63 games in the regular season, they lost in the second round to fourth-seeded Dallas.

How hard do the Spurs now push for the NBA’s top overall record?

Not very. The Spurs are a game ahead of Chicago in the loss column for that honor, but it’s probably not worth exhausting themselves over. The advantage only comes into play if both teams meet in the NBA Finals, in which case the team with the best record gets to play Games 6 and 7 on its home court.

I bought tickets to see Tim Duncan play over the final three games. Can I get a refund?

Good luck with that. The biggest question facing Popovich now is how much rest to give his starters, particularly those north of age 30. History shows with seeding locked up, Popovich is likely to rest Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Antonio McDyess and others before the start of the playoffs. But the Spurs are also just now getting over a six-game losing streak, and would like to build positive momentum heading into the postseason. Too much time off could be just as detrimental as too little.

What’s the best and worst first-round matchup for the Spurs?

Of the three teams capable of winding up eighth, New Orleans represents the easiest draw, especially with perennial Spurs killer David West out with a knee injury. The Spurs should be able to handle Memphis, the team currently in eighth place, but would likely come out of that series battered and bruised by the rugged Grizzlies. Portland, the only team to win a season series over the Spurs, remains the apocalypse scenario."
Sher Thing
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If the Bulls and Spurs end up with the same record and meet in the finals, home court would be decided by a flip of a coin.... for the people interested..
agwin12
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Bulls clinched the #1 seed tonight. Will now see how hard they play to capture the overall #1 seed.

Spurs (3)

Utah
@ Lakers
@ Phoenix

Bulls (3)

@ Orlando
@ New York
New Jersey
jack12345
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quote:

I'm not sure, but from a quick glance at NBA.com, it appears that a Spurs / Bulls tie would come down to point differential on the season?




Bulls have already clinched the tie-breaker against Spurs for home court advantage in Finals.

Here's my analysis based off of:
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html


Looking at the more detailed "Playoff Tie-Break Procedures" at the bottom of the page, rather than the cursory (and incomplete) cheat sheet that is immediately underneath the standings...

Section d.--- states home court advantage is determined by the same procedures used to determine playoff seeding tie breaks.

So on to Section a.....

a(1)--head to head is still a tie

a(2)--is N/A because Spurs-Bulls in different divisions

a(3)--would also be a tie, because Spurs would have to lose one more game than Bulls (to create a regular season record tie), which would automatically make for tied conference records (as both teams remaining three opponents are all within their respective conferences and Spurs currently have better conference record by one game)

a(4)--winning % against playoff eligible teams in own conference. Here Bulls break tie no matter what. Currently Spurs 14-12, Bulls 13-8. Even if Spurs beat LA and Bulls lose to Orlando and NY, Bulls still have the better winning % (also, if this happened, tie breaker would actually be moot point based on a better Spurs regular season record)


[This message has been edited by jack12345 (edited 4/9/2011 4:11p).]
sharkenleo
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A lot of things have to fall into place for that tiebreaker to come into practice. I won't even worry about it for now.
sharkenleo
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Pop playing the starters toinght
aggie_2001_2005
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That can't be correct. There has got to be some kind of different tiebreaker for the NBA Finals.

Nonetheless, it probably won't matter, since it is doubtful that these teams end up with the same record.
agzonfine
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AG
I'm trying to start something up for playoff time and I hope everyone else will participate. Every time Gary Neal hits a 3, everyone should yell "HE NEAL'D IT!" and high five everyone around them.
Ulrich
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good luck. Try lots of booze.
agwin12
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AG
Spurs move to 61-19. TD goes to the bench for the last quarter and a half. Splitter played well.
Enzo The Baker
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quote:
Every time Gary Neal hits a 3, everyone should yell "HE NEAL'D IT!" and high five everyone around them.


That's almost as bad as Bill Schoening's "Roger that!" schtick that he used for Mason.
sharkenleo
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That's 4 straight wins for the Spurs. Guess it won't be us that'll "limp into the playoffs".
agzonfine
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AG
Nice win, never in doubt
aggie_2001_2005
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It will be interesting to see how the next couple days shake out as far as 1st round matchups. The 6-8 spots in the west look like this:

Portland leads for the 6 spot with remaining games vs Memphis and @Golden State.

New Orleans 1 game back of Portland has tiebreak over Memphis (division record) and remaining games vs Utah and @Dallas.

Memphis is also 1 game back of Portland and has @Portland and @Clippers remaining.


New Orleans has the toughest schedule but benefit from the Memphis - Portland head to head matchup. There's also the possibility that the Mavs have clinched by Wednesday and rest all their players & give the game away.

The Spurs could be in great shape if Memphis pulls out a huge win at Portland and New Orleans drops one of their last two.
sharkenleo
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hornets will most likely lose to mavs, and i can see memphis beating portland.

spurs - hornets is best case scenario for the spurs and it is looking highly likely
Iowaggie
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AG
Ernie Johnson broke down the tie-breaker scenario if the Bulls and Spurs are tied and meet in the drawing.

Link is to page, but it is one of the top videos on there.

Plus a tribut to Artis Gilmore (who played for both the Spurs and Bulls).

http://www.nba.com/video/tntot/
aggie_2001_2005
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Well, New Orleans did their part by losing tonight and falling into 8th place.

Now if Memphis can just get the win in Portland they need to avoid falling back into 8th.
sharkenleo
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Does Pop play the starters tonight and try to guarantee at least a tie for the best league in the record?
sharkenleo
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lol @ my epic fail. totally leaving that in
sharkenleo
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I also have an unsettling feeling that Memphis is tanking their game tonight so they can play us in round 1
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MassAggie97
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AG
quote:
Does Pop play the starters tonight

I think he will, on limited minutes. He's had a history of pulling starters in late games against potential playoff opponents. I could be wrong, but I think pulling all the starters last night had as much to do with not wanting to give the lakers another look as it did resting the "big 3". He did that multiple times against the Mavs back around 05/06/07 in games late in the year.
It also sends a bit of a subliminal message when you play the last 5 guys off your bench for almost an entire game and are still competitive with your biggest rival's starting 5.

I'd be surprised if the Spurs didn't at least attempt to tie for the overal #1.

[This message has been edited by MassAggie97 (edited 4/13/2011 10:32a).]
sharkenleo
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Yeah, it would kinda suck to lose the overall #1 seed the last game of the season.
Obi Wan Ginobili
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everyone is making too big of a deal with this home court thing.

if we were talking losing home court in the west, that would suck.

assuming both the spurs and bulls make the finals, the 2-3-2 format is hardly an advantage for the home team.
Simplebay
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AG
yeah it's hardly an advantage. unless you count things like....facts, stats, history, trends, proof.
yawny06
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AG
The most important game in a series tied 2-2 is game 5. I think that is where the team without HCA has the upper hand.

"First in Sight, Ready to Fight"
moorehead01
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AG
"Stats" don't tell the whole story -- winning a series in which you have HCA is not necessarily due to the HCA itself. It's often because you are the much better team to begin with. We may all have different opinions, but I don't know if this year's Spurs or Bulls are clearly better than the other.

Plus the chances of those two meeting in the Finals is relatively low (I'd say 10%).

That said, at this point the Spurs have one game left against a non-playoff team. Win it, and you have at worst a 50/50 shot of having HCA all the way through the playoffs. My thinking would be different if it were a potential playoff opponent or if there were more games left to be played.
I could go either way on this one, so I'll just trust in Pop.
Simplebay
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to say HCA in the Finals doesn't matter is retarded.

to the Spurs what matters more than HCA in the Finals....is getting to the Finals. and in order to do that they're going to need perfect play from everyone and everyone 100% healthy. they're not worried about the Finals at this point, because they may not get there. which, would indicate that Pop will rest the starters tonight.

that being said...didn't they say during the game last night that Pop was planning on playing the starters tomorrow?
MassAggie97
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AG
quote:
assuming both the spurs and bulls make the finals, the 2-3-2 format is hardly an advantage for the home team.

How do you figure? The road team has to do one of two very difficult things, either:
1. Win 2 games on the road, or
2. Win 3 games in a row at home

If anything, I'd say the 2-3-2 format is MORE advantageous for the home team, especially if they win the 1st two games. All they've done is held serve at that point, but they basically force the other team to win 3 in a row, which is an EXTREMELY difficult thing to do in the playoffs.

The 04/05 finals is a perfect example. The Spurs murdered the Pistons a couple games at home, then got their arse kicked even worse two games in a row in Detroit, but the Pistons couldn't pull off that 3rd game. Then all the Spurs had to do is win 1/2 at home.

quote:
Plus the chances of those two meeting in the Finals is relatively low (I'd say 10%).
You've calculated the wrong odds there.
If you are the Spurs, you have to operate under the assumption that you will be in the finals. So you can throw out the Spurs odds in the calcuation. So you are left with the odds of playing Chicago, which I'd say are close 50% given how crappy Boston is playing right now. Hollinger's odds have Chicago at 44% to make the finals.

[This message has been edited by MassAggie97 (edited 4/13/2011 2:59p).]
moorehead01
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AG
^
|
|

Good point, you're right about that. My bad.
 
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