quote:
assuming both the spurs and bulls make the finals, the 2-3-2 format is hardly an advantage for the home team.
How do you figure? The road team has to do one of two very difficult things, either:
1. Win 2 games on the road, or
2. Win 3 games in a row at home
If anything, I'd say the 2-3-2 format is MORE advantageous for the home team, especially if they win the 1st two games. All they've done is held serve at that point, but they basically force the other team to win 3 in a row, which is an EXTREMELY difficult thing to do in the playoffs.
The 04/05 finals is a perfect example. The Spurs murdered the Pistons a couple games at home, then got their arse kicked even worse two games in a row in Detroit, but the Pistons couldn't pull off that 3rd game. Then all the Spurs had to do is win 1/2 at home.
quote:
Plus the chances of those two meeting in the Finals is relatively low (I'd say 10%).
You've calculated the wrong odds there.
If you are the Spurs, you have to operate under the assumption that you will be in the finals. So you can throw out the Spurs odds in the calcuation. So you are left with the odds of playing Chicago, which I'd say are close 50% given how crappy Boston is playing right now. Hollinger's odds have Chicago at 44% to make the finals.
[This message has been edited by MassAggie97 (edited 4/13/2011 2:59p).]