What motive exists for these actions? US, Germany, Poland, NATO - they have NO motive that doesn't have even greater anti-motive (via political fallout if discovered who did it). Same for China and all the lesser evils (Iran, NK, Saudis, etc).

The ONLY motive that makes sense is that this is a false flag operation by Russia to help garner internal Russian support for the war and mobilization. Putin didn't do this to threaten NATO or anybody else - he just needed something to help garner support for his lost war before he gets tossed to the curb.

there has to be an offramp provided

western europe is not going to shiver just to make Lockheed rich. this isn't poor SE Asia in the 60s.

the fact that Europe is energy deprived is extremely destabilizing for their current political project.

that's what I don't understand in any of this chaos - if you start shaking the etch-a-sketch, who knows what political settlement you're going to end up with? you really want Germany to head back populist right? how's that going to work out?

javajaws said:

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What motive exists for these actions? US, Germany, Poland, NATO - they have NO motive that doesn't have even greater anti-motive (via political fallout if discovered who did it). Same for China and all the lesser evils (Iran, NK, Saudis, etc).

The ONLY motive that makes sense is that this is a false flag operation by Russia to help garner internal Russian support for the war and mobilization. Putin didn't do this to threaten NATO or anybody else - he just needed something to help garner support for his lost war before he gets tossed to the curb.

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Stopping Germany or the EU from departing from the war effort is a good reason. It's the reason millions of Germans are convinced the US did this. Again, if Putin did this, he is a genius because it makes Europe hate America. That's next level competency.

I don't have enough info to move past suspicions. We have a history with the Gulf of Tonkin so i can rule out the current administration. Russia does what one man thinks is right, not a rational consensus. Can't rule it out. My current suspicion without any real data - this is either Russian or a complete system failure due to the lack of operating pressure. Need more intel.

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they have no choice but to find alternative suppliers. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

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i'm pretty sure Germany will accept shame as an option

cone said:

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there has to be an offramp provided

western europe is not going to shiver just to make Lockheed rich. this isn't poor SE Asia in the 60s.

the fact that Europe is energy deprived is extremely destabilizing for their current political project.

that's what I don't understand in any of this chaos - if you start shaking the etch-a-sketch, who knows what political settlement you're going to end up with? you really want Germany to head back populist right? how's that going to work out?

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Precisely.

twk said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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cone said:

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Y'all are crazy. Y'all want it to be Russia and don't want it to be the United States so y'all are believing crazy ideas. The entire world knows it was us. The only people denying we were involved are Americans.

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why can't it be neither party?

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It can be alot if people. But right now all evidence points to US and zero points to Russia but people keep saying Russia because of muh feelings.

Russia is bad. Yes. But not all bad deeds are done by Russia.

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Absolute 100% bull*****

The Biden administration is too stupid to pull off something like this even if they wanted to. Your boy Putin did it for the obvious reasons that everyone can see.

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They were obviously briefed on the mission possibility. That's why Biden bragged about it. No doubt our navy has plans on the books for all kinds of this like this. Russia was building up forces on Ukraine border. What leverage does Us have to threaten. He likely received that information in a briefing the day of or day before he bragged about it.

It's not like Biden or his admin has to do anything. All they say it's go so plan whatever and the navy goes and does it.

It's a gross underestimation to say the Biden admin is too dumb. They are actually very smart and are destroying this country in record time. The misconception is that that's not their goal and the reason things are bad is because they are inept. That's a falsehood. The reality is Biden is a puppet for people who hate this country and likely the entire west in general and are actively trying to destroy it.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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cone said:

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The USA also would have been much more careful to make it appear to be an accident or technical failure, had we done it. Making it an obvious sabotage wouldn't serve our interests at all, particularly if some evidence eventually made it clear who it was that did it.

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i completely agree with this

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Fan fiction. We had navy boats and planes sitting right above it when it happened. We don't care. We aren't even denying it. Why? Because the rulers that be want escalation.

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You keep saying we aren't denying it to imply we accept responsibility - which couldn't be further from the truth.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/world/europe/pipeline-sabotage-mystery-russia.html

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. . .
Jake Sullivan, President Biden's national security adviser, called the episode "apparent sabotage."

But with little evidence to go on American officials said that explosive gas pouring from the broken pipes made it too dangerous to get close to the breach the United States and most of its European allies stopped short of publicly naming any suspects.
. . .

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Forbes provides more rationale for the Russia sabotage our patriots have latched onto:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2022/09/29/russian-sabotage-of-the-nord-stream-pipeline-mark-a-point-of-no-return/?sh=a1808825dba8

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. . .
This is not the first time the Russians have transparently lied about energy infrastructure damage to weaponize their energy resources or geographical position as a transit country. Multiple prewar disputes with Ukraine, Finland, the Baltics, and recent attempts to hold Kazakhstan's energy exports hostage due to its defiance regarding Ukraine stand out as examples.
. . .
European leaders have already identified and condemned Russia as the obvious culprit.
. . .
One may be tempted to ask why would the Russians bother with sabotage and denial? After all, hostility towards Ukraine and Europe is neither novel nor secret. The shutoff of gas from sabotage does not fundamentally change Russia's stated aims or enacted strategy. The answer lies in the strength of Western financial institutions, Russia's lack of leverage or soft power, and the devastating impacts sanctions are having against Russia. If Nord Stream is shut down suddenly through "force majeure", a sudden uncontrollable stop that is the fault of neither party, then Russia can void its obligations towards European stakeholders without legally breaking contracts, thus dodging the many penalties in doing so.

The other great reason Putin is expending so much effort in pursuit of such a transparent strategy lies in his domestic vulnerability. By ending all possible routes for gas delivery resumption with the West and making rapprochement more difficult, Russian oligarchs who have not yet fallen out of a window, but may still be wavering in their dedication to Putin, have no choice to acquiesce to his leadership.
. . .

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So they'd get to punish Europe and dodge financial penalties for same in the contracts.

So we've got
1) sew dissension;
2) avoid responsibility when Europe is freezing;
3) show ability to threaten other nearby pipelines; and
4) provide a defense to contractual penalties for shutting off the gas.

All for pipelines that were providing no value otherwise.

Our alleged motive - to stop Germany from caving to Russia.

Even that rationale sounds like it was crafted by Russia.

twk said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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cone said:

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Y'all are crazy. Y'all want it to be Russia and don't want it to be the United States so y'all are believing crazy ideas. The entire world knows it was us. The only people denying we were involved are Americans.

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why can't it be neither party?

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It can be alot if people. But right now all evidence points to US and zero points to Russia but people keep saying Russia because of muh feelings.

Russia is bad. Yes. But not all bad deeds are done by Russia.

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Absolute 100% bull*****

The Biden administration is too stupid to pull off something like this even if they wanted to. Your boy Putin did it for the obvious reasons that everyone can see.

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Zelensky butt boys have been saying Russia is dirtheringly incompetent for 6 months. Now Moscow are genius level strategists. And capable of clandestine operations. The same military that has been kicked around by Ukrainian farmers with tractors.

I would point out that Biden isn't the one in the boat doing the work. He isn't in a wetsuit armed with an ice cream cone. He doesn't need to have any neurons firing for special ops to execute this order.

Hell you may not even need the military to do this. We do have clandestine agencies that have toppled foreign powers, assassinated leaders, and blown up assets before.

Former KGB can't fight a war. But they do know how to start one.

Ag In Ok said:

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Former KGB can't fight a war. But they do know how to start one.

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Lol OK.

Masterminds the lot of them. Except keeping their tanks fueled in the Donbass right?

This is how you spot cognitive dissonance. No matter what happens good or bad, you can place the blame on Russia no matter what.

The Debt

Hell you may not even need the military to do this. We do have clandestine agencies that have toppled foreign powers, assassinated leaders, and blown up assets before. [/quote said:

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And we have the Central American immigrants to prove it!

Russia didn't do this because they are genius, they probably did this because they are incompetent.

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We do have clandestine agencies that have toppled foreign powers, assassinated leaders, and blown up assets before.

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lol

like what's going on in Iran right now

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And we have the Central American immigrants to prove it!

Russia didn't do this because they are genius, they probably did this because they are incompetent.

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Poopslap if this is ruled anything else but engineering failure?

So a sanctioned nation is going to blow up their own pipes that they sell an abundance of LNG for a substantial part of income to get out of a contract they said they are willing to fulfill? It's Germany that was creating the reduced supply because of sanctions we are making.

There are far less complex ways to dmg the pipe than what took place. They could have driven a truck into where it's loaded or some piece of infrastructure like that. But instead they plan a complex underwater demo mission. Have completely escaped detection in the relatively shallow water despite us having navy ships in the area and a P8 right overhead?

Makes sense.

Your missing the point - rupturing a gas line is KGB / FSB work. The exact same could be said if the CIA Logistics in Donbas isn't.

Ag In Ok said:

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Your missing the point - rupturing a gas line is KGB / FSB work. The exact same could be said if the CIA Logistics in Donbas isn't.

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"Let us hurt ourselves. This will drive wedge between Moose & Squirrel" - Boris to Natasha

Germany announced, what Monday? That they are going to be fine.

Russia is taking its ball and going home. (And home is Eastern Ukraine)

Yukon Cornelius said:

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So a sanctioned nation is going to blow up their own pipes that they sell an abundance of LNG for a substantial part of income to get out of a contract they said they are willing to fulfill? It's Germany that was creating the reduced supply because of sanctions we are making.

There are far less complex ways to dmg the pipe than what took place. They could have driven a truck into where it's loaded or some piece of infrastructure like that. But instead they plan a complex underwater demo mission. Have completely escaped detection in the relatively shallow water despite us having navy ships in the area and a P8 right overhead?

Makes sense.

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There were Russian subs and ships reported in the area. If they did it, they didn't escape detection.

Given the shallow depth, it is not impossible that a non-state actor is interfering with global economics and geopolitics.

Any number of fishing or diving or pipeline services vessels could use records and electronics to locate the pipeline on the bottom.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Given the shallow depth, it is not impossible that a non-state actor is interfering with global economics and geopolitics.

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Like in a bond movie?

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Germany announced, what Monday? That they are going to be fine.

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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So a sanctioned nation is going to blow up their own pipes that they sell an abundance of LNG for a substantial part of income to get out of a contract they said they are willing to fulfill? It's Germany that was creating the reduced supply because of sanctions we are making.

There are far less complex ways to dmg the pipe than what took place. They could have driven a truck into where it's loaded or some piece of infrastructure like that. But instead they plan a complex underwater demo mission. Have completely escaped detection in the relatively shallow water despite us having navy ships in the area and a P8 right overhead?

Makes sense.

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They have never sold one MCF of gas through Nordstream 2. They haven't sold any gas (or very little) through Nordstream 1 in recent months. They have plenty of capacity in other pipelines to handle what they are selling right now, and what they are likely to sell in the future. Putin was willing to sacrifice these lines in an attempt to ratchet up the pressure. Having played the embargo card, he's all in. If he doesn't break the Europeans this winter, he's toast.

So he chose a complex under water demo mission to destroy pipes he wasn't using instead of continuing to not use them? If you think it's like burning the ships why not destroy the pipes that are being used? Why not destroy the infrastructure in area that can't be repaired by foreign people? Why not destroy it in a more convenient way?

What's the point of buds training if they don't get to use it??

so the rationalist russian case for self-sabotage is that the leverage they had wasn't really leverage at all and so it was worth destroying infrastructure where you managed the supply via valves in order to secure a propaganda victory?

i mean, it's plausible. you gotta squint though to see it as likely compared to other motivated parties.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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So he chose a complex under water demo mission to destroy pipes he wasn't using instead of continuing to not use them? If you think it's like burning the ships why not destroy the pipes that are being used? Why not destroy the infrastructure in area that can't be repaired by foreign people? Why not destroy it in a more convenient way?

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There is a recently opened pipeline running from Norway to Poland that runs in very close proximity to Nordstream. By destroying Nordstream, Putin sends a message to the Norwegians and Poles that their line could be next. It's a stunt that doesn't cost him gas sales, and for which he maintains plausible deniability. They've been shutting off Nordstream1 for months claiming lack of parts (force majeure rather than breach of contract if challenged in court -- something to consider).

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There is a recently opened pipeline running from Norway to Poland that runs in very close proximity to Nordstream.

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why not attack that one first?

cone said:

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There is a recently opened pipeline running from Norway to Poland that runs in very close proximity to Nordstream.

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why not attack that one first?

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Because that would probably prompt a response from NATO.

but we don't know who did this. how would we similarly know who did the hypothetical attack?

so they blow up their own lines to threaten adjacent lines that in destroying them would trigger a NATO response

so what exactly was communicated?

this seems too clever by half

The Debt said:

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Ag In Ok said:

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Your missing the point - rupturing a gas line is KGB / FSB work. The exact same could be said if the CIA Logistics in Donbas isn't.

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"Let us hurt ourselves. This will drive wedge between Moose & Squirrel" - Boris to Natasha

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Seems like Russia saw an opportunity to make Biden's reckless statement a reality and then launch a propaganda campaign to drive a wedge between political factions in Europe and the USA over supposed US energy policy meddling. The pipelines weren't making any money but they could still be useful for propaganda.

It's a very viable and reasonable explanation.

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That is one of the more plausible takes if going with the `Russia' did it angle.

A more ominous one (but actually not indicated) is that if Russia did it, it could be to supply pretext for a new aggression. But the idea that Moscow would want to open any new front right now seems preposterous given all their difficulties. Would rate this scenario as extremely improbable.

cone said:

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but we don't know who did this. how would we similarly know who did the hypothetical attack?

so they blow up their own lines to threaten adjacent lines that in destroying them would trigger a NATO response

so what exactly was communicated?

this seems too clever by half

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Putin being too clever by half is the whole story of this affair. Even the latest news about Russian mobilization is probably an example of this. He's engaging in a "partial" mobilization as much, or more, to placate his right wing critics than to actually raise numbers for offensive use. There has been nothing straightforward about how Putin has conducted this "special operation" from day one.

twk said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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So a sanctioned nation is going to blow up their own pipes that they sell an abundance of LNG for a substantial part of income to get out of a contract they said they are willing to fulfill? It's Germany that was creating the reduced supply because of sanctions we are making.

There are far less complex ways to dmg the pipe than what took place. They could have driven a truck into where it's loaded or some piece of infrastructure like that. But instead they plan a complex underwater demo mission. Have completely escaped detection in the relatively shallow water despite us having navy ships in the area and a P8 right overhead?

Makes sense.

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They have never sold one MCF of gas through Nordstream 2. They haven't sold any gas (or very little) through Nordstream 1 in recent months. They have plenty of capacity in other pipelines to handle what they are selling right now, and what they are likely to sell in the future. Putin was willing to sacrifice these lines in an attempt to ratchet up the pressure. Having played the embargo card, he's all in. If he doesn't break the Europeans this winter, he's toast.

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But this makes it harder for Europe to say uncle not easier. There were already protests in Germany with people demanding that Germany accept gas on NS. That's exactly the kind of pressure that would benefit Putin. Now that pressure is off because it just became impossible. Germany is forced further into a corner with fewer options. That does not benefit Putin.

HumpitPuryear said:

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twk said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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So a sanctioned nation is going to blow up their own pipes that they sell an abundance of LNG for a substantial part of income to get out of a contract they said they are willing to fulfill? It's Germany that was creating the reduced supply because of sanctions we are making.

There are far less complex ways to dmg the pipe than what took place. They could have driven a truck into where it's loaded or some piece of infrastructure like that. But instead they plan a complex underwater demo mission. Have completely escaped detection in the relatively shallow water despite us having navy ships in the area and a P8 right overhead?

Makes sense.

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They have never sold one MCF of gas through Nordstream 2. They haven't sold any gas (or very little) through Nordstream 1 in recent months. They have plenty of capacity in other pipelines to handle what they are selling right now, and what they are likely to sell in the future. Putin was willing to sacrifice these lines in an attempt to ratchet up the pressure. Having played the embargo card, he's all in. If he doesn't break the Europeans this winter, he's toast.

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But this makes it harder for Europe to say uncle not easier. There were already protests in Germany with people demanding that Germany accept gas on NS. That's exactly the kind of pressure that would benefit Putin. Now that pressure is off because it just became impossible. Germany is forced further into a corner with fewer options. That does not benefit Putin.

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I don't know how many times I have to say it, but there are a number of other pipelines from Russian to Europe. They've got the capacity to handle whatever gas Russia wants to sell to Europe. The Europeans have been acquiring every bit of gas that they can from other sources, so even if they knuckled under today, those other pipelines could handle whatever the Europeans decided to buy. The Nordstream lines, in particularly the second line, were about replacing those other lines (and cutting off Ukraine and Poland from royalty payments), not about increasing capacity.