Trump-Vance-Zelenskyy

175,725 Views | 1748 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by ts5641
Woods Ag
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Can I ask what strength does the rest of Europe hold? What technological greatness do they have? What allows them to keep their status? What do they add?

Put another way, if we were doing a fantasy draft to pick allies how far down the list is the EU or the countries that make up the EU? Who would the US draft 1st?

I've been pondering this (without much actual research) and I'm not sure they aren't just the trust fund babies for previous centuries. Maybe we need new allies anyways

Psycho Bunny
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Woods Ag said:

Can I ask what strength does the rest of Europe hold? What technological greatness do they have? What allows them to keep their status? What do they add?

Put another way, if we were doing a fantasy draft to pick allies how far down the list is the EU or the countries that make up the EU? Who would the US draft 1st?

I've been pondering this (without much actual research) and I'm not sure they aren't just the trust fund babies for previous centuries. Maybe we need new allies anyways


I choose Czech Republic for 1st pick. Only because Czech girls are hot and I'm biased for CZ handguns.
This is the way the world ends, this is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.
deddog
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Who?mikejones! said:

ReturnOfTheAg said:

BluHorseShu said:

deddog said:

BluHorseShu said:

strbrst777 said:

Z is a rude, ungrateful, disgusting jerk. The meeting was on TV.
Its unfortunate Z let it escalate....but I also think there is some blame on Trump and Vance with how they've played it. Z has everything to lose so he should have thought about that.
Trump and Vance are known quantities. They also hold the purse strings.
Zelensky has no cards to play.
It was stupid.
He doesn't....But if after Pearl Harbor all of our allies just told us to shut up and take it while they work out a peace agreement I'm pretty sure we'd have told them to get bent and kept fighting. Zelensky has baggage, but by no means is the war Ukraines fault. No remotely. This Putin love feast is awful. Reagan is rolling over in his grave.


THANK YOU

Ukraine was attacked and has fought for 3 years to keep their country EXISTING.

And Zelensky is being chastised for not getting down on his knees and kissing the proverbial ring on the finger when we're demanding him to lay down his arms while Russia gets off virtually scott free?

I'd be pissed off too - he carries the deaths of his countrymen on his heart and is being treated like a Warhawk when he wants a firm, just peace.




I'm not sure i agree with your conclusion on Zelensky's desires. Or, maybe he desires that, but he cannot have it how he wants.

There's clearly no will to do what is necessary to force a Russian capitulation which in my estimation is western boots on the ground.

We could give ukriane every weapon, save nukes, in our arsenal and it probably wouldn't move the needle all that much because ukriane doesn't have the manpower to employ them.

Without western troops, ukriane has proven they can at best create a slowly receding stalemate. And Russia is more than willing to simply send men and machine into the meat grinder for slow but steady gains. I thought Russia would have petered out long ago, but, they fight on.

Option A- we fund what's essentially an endless war or do something unwise like send even more arms to eventually end up destroyed in exchange for little gain.

Option b- we send troops to adequately push back the Russians

Option c- we force peace, which means some tough deals for ukriane to accept. This appears to be Trump's desire

Yes, Russia will probably end up absorbing their ill gotten gains, because there is little to suggest there is both the way and the will to do whats necessary to get them back. I certainly do not see America sending troops. Maybe the euros could get there, but by all reports, Europe's armies are not up to the task.

In summary-

1. trump wants peace and he wants america to not fund this war anymore.
2. Trump's correct opinion, imo, is that ukriane doesn't hold the cards to make strong demands
3. Russia is so far unwilling to give up anything they have taken.
4. Without taking drastic measures, the west has no way to force Russia to give up anything they hold.

Zelensky realistic options are very narrow
Nice write up.
On #4,
We have more options than you might first think:
- the sanctions on Russia after the war have definitely been cumbersome, if not debilitating.
- The Ukes have some areas in Russia, that the Ruskies have not yet been able to dislodge (some superpower- ha)
- There is also the threat of the US and the West arming Ukraine to the teeth and perpetual conflict if Russia does not withdraw from most occupied areas (other than Crimea)
- There are plenty of instances where the "winning" side has given up large areas to the "loser" (India/Pakistan wars, Israel giving back the Sinai...and so on).
- Make no mistake this war is very destructive on Russia too.

Need a strong negotiator, Trump needs to be at the top of his game here.
Woods Ag
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Psycho Bunny said:

Woods Ag said:

Can I ask what strength does the rest of Europe hold? What technological greatness do they have? What allows them to keep their status? What do they add?

Put another way, if we were doing a fantasy draft to pick allies how far down the list is the EU or the countries that make up the EU? Who would the US draft 1st?

I've been pondering this (without much actual research) and I'm not sure they aren't just the trust fund babies for previous centuries. Maybe we need new allies anyways


I choose Czech Republic for 1st pick. Only because Czech girls are hot and I'm biased for CZ handguns.


Solid choice!
Woods Ag
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My friend is St Petersburg is getting ready to take his motorcycle out and ready for riding season. Working, loving his GF. He was on vacation visiting friends down in Greece and Serbia earlier last year.

He's not well to do. Just an avg middle class dude, early to mid 30s.

Are we sure the sanctions are doing anything?
deddog
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Woods Ag said:

My friend is St Petersburg is getting ready to take his motorcycle out and ready for riding season. Working, loving his GF. He was on vacation visiting friends down in Greece and Serbia earlier last year.

He's not well to do. Just an avg middle class dude, early to mid 30s.

Are we sure the sanctions or doing anything?
The sanctions, I would expect would affect the wealthy and the technocrats. I didn't keep track, but initially, many companies/corporations cancelled contracts with Russian counterparts. Russian military has also not been able to keep up because of the absense of parts / chips /software etc. (the war is another reason, but it's not the only one). I know Russians havent been able to sell equipment to other countries because they can't fulfill orders.

Yes, you can get a lot of this on the black market , but that isn't sustainable if you want to improve your economy. Russians love money too, the wealthier more so.
Woods Ag
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deddog said:

Woods Ag said:

My friend is St Petersburg is getting ready to take his motorcycle out and ready for riding season. Working, loving his GF. He was on vacation visiting friends down in Greece and Serbia earlier last year.

He's not well to do. Just an avg middle class dude, early to mid 30s.

Are we sure the sanctions or doing anything?
The sanctions, I would expect would affect the wealthy and the technocrats. I didn't keep track, but initially, many companies/corporations cancelled contracts with Russian counterparts. Russian military has also not been able to keep up because of the absense of parts / chips /software etc. (the war is another reason, but it's not the only one). I know Russians havent been able to sell equipment to other countries because they can't fulfill orders.

Yes, you can get a lot of this on the black market , but that isn't sustainable if you want to improve your economy. Russians love money too, the wealthier more so.


Is China the black market? They're still selling that LNG. Unless we can block ports and secure borders sanctions ain't what we want them to be. The world ain't like it was
Who?mikejones!
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Quote:

Nice write up.
On #4,
We have more options than you might first think:
- the sanctions on Russia after the war have definitely been cumbersome, if not debilitating.
- The Ukes have some areas in Russia, that they have not yet been able to dislodge (some superpower- ha)
- There is also the threat of the US and the West arming Ukraine to the teeth and perpetual conflict if Russia does not withdraw from most areas (other than Crimea)
- There are plenty of instances where the "winning" side has given up large areas to the "loser" (India/Pakistan wars, Israel giving back the Sinai...and so on).
- Make no mistake this war is very destructive on Russia too.

Need a strong negotiator, Trump needs to be at the top of his game here.


I think the last remaining financial thing that could be done is for Europe to completely divest from Russian oil and gas and instead purchase usa gas.

I don't think putin much cares for the plight of the average ivan. There's likely a long way still to go before the negative impacts of sanctions really cause issues for putin

Yes, I believe the reason Ukraine went into kursk was to get a bargining chip. But that only increases the urgency for zelenskyy to get to the table while he still holds most of what they took.

I still think putin will mostly only respond to violence or the threat thereof and simply arming ukriane isn't a big enough threat to.mother Russia.

I really think putin is fully do or die on ukriane and we're nowhere near die. I thought we would be, but here we are years and likely a million dead later and he's no closer to falling out a window than he was before.

deddog
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Woods Ag said:

deddog said:

Woods Ag said:



My friend is St Petersburg is getting ready to take his motorcycle out and ready for riding season. Working, loving his GF. He was on vacation visiting friends down in Greece and Serbia earlier last year.

He's not well to do. Just an avg middle class dude, early to mid 30s.

Are we sure the sanctions or doing anything?
The sanctions, I would expect would affect the wealthy and the technocrats. I didn't keep track, but initially, many companies/corporations cancelled contracts with Russian counterparts. Russian military has also not been able to keep up because of the absense of parts / chips /software etc. (the war is another reason, but it's not the only one). I know Russians havent been able to sell equipment to other countries because they can't fulfill orders.

Yes, you can get a lot of this on the black market , but that isn't sustainable if you want to improve your economy. Russians love money too, the wealthier more so.


Is China the black market? They're still selling that LNG. Unless we can block ports and secure borders sanctions ain't what we want them to be. The world ain't like it was
https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-russias-future

The sanctions were weak in that they were meant to minimize disruption to Europe, but they definitely target the wealthy. Definitely have some impact, it's not nothing, and hopefully significant enough for them to give up land in Ukraine.

Quote:

Approximately 70 percent of assets within the Russian banking system are now under sanctions, crippling its financial sector. Key figures in the Russian government, military officials, and oligarchs have faced asset freezes and travel bans, further limiting Russia's economic maneuverability. Between these frozen assets and the impact of the oil price cap, the Coalition has already deprived Russia of more than $500 billion that it could have put toward its war effort.

Who?mikejones!
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Russia just has such a long and storied history of the subjugation and suffering of its people that it's gonna take a lot more suffering for change to come.
sam callahan
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Quote:

He's not well to do. Just an avg middle class dude, early to mid 30s.


Median household income in Russia is 8,000 USD.

If he is average middle class by American standards, the dude is a baller in Russia
TacosaurusRex
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Psycho Bunny said:

Woods Ag said:

Can I ask what strength does the rest of Europe hold? What technological greatness do they have? What allows them to keep their status? What do they add?

Put another way, if we were doing a fantasy draft to pick allies how far down the list is the EU or the countries that make up the EU? Who would the US draft 1st?

I've been pondering this (without much actual research) and I'm not sure they aren't just the trust fund babies for previous centuries. Maybe we need new allies anyways


I choose Czech Republic for 1st pick. Only because Czech girls are hot and I'm biased for CZ handguns.


Don't forget the kolaches and the women. They're worth mentioning twice.
Psycho Bunny
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Oh most definitely the kolaches, Czech women though, chef's kiss of sweetness. One of the many reasons I feel in love with my wife. Well.. half the reason, her Irish side still cares the crap out of me. The brighter her hair gets the more I'm dodging into a fox hole.
This is the way the world ends, this is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.
Who?mikejones!
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agent-maroon
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Who?mikejones! said:



Freakin WORD man!
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PlaneCrashGuy
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deddog said:

Who?mikejones! said:

ReturnOfTheAg said:

BluHorseShu said:

deddog said:

BluHorseShu said:

strbrst777 said:

Z is a rude, ungrateful, disgusting jerk. The meeting was on TV.
Its unfortunate Z let it escalate....but I also think there is some blame on Trump and Vance with how they've played it. Z has everything to lose so he should have thought about that.
Trump and Vance are known quantities. They also hold the purse strings.
Zelensky has no cards to play.
It was stupid.
He doesn't....But if after Pearl Harbor all of our allies just told us to shut up and take it while they work out a peace agreement I'm pretty sure we'd have told them to get bent and kept fighting. Zelensky has baggage, but by no means is the war Ukraines fault. No remotely. This Putin love feast is awful. Reagan is rolling over in his grave.


THANK YOU

Ukraine was attacked and has fought for 3 years to keep their country EXISTING.

And Zelensky is being chastised for not getting down on his knees and kissing the proverbial ring on the finger when we're demanding him to lay down his arms while Russia gets off virtually scott free?

I'd be pissed off too - he carries the deaths of his countrymen on his heart and is being treated like a Warhawk when he wants a firm, just peace.




I'm not sure i agree with your conclusion on Zelensky's desires. Or, maybe he desires that, but he cannot have it how he wants.

There's clearly no will to do what is necessary to force a Russian capitulation which in my estimation is western boots on the ground.

We could give ukriane every weapon, save nukes, in our arsenal and it probably wouldn't move the needle all that much because ukriane doesn't have the manpower to employ them.

Without western troops, ukriane has proven they can at best create a slowly receding stalemate. And Russia is more than willing to simply send men and machine into the meat grinder for slow but steady gains. I thought Russia would have petered out long ago, but, they fight on.

Option A- we fund what's essentially an endless war or do something unwise like send even more arms to eventually end up destroyed in exchange for little gain.

Option b- we send troops to adequately push back the Russians

Option c- we force peace, which means some tough deals for ukriane to accept. This appears to be Trump's desire

Yes, Russia will probably end up absorbing their ill gotten gains, because there is little to suggest there is both the way and the will to do whats necessary to get them back. I certainly do not see America sending troops. Maybe the euros could get there, but by all reports, Europe's armies are not up to the task.

In summary-

1. trump wants peace and he wants america to not fund this war anymore.
2. Trump's correct opinion, imo, is that ukriane doesn't hold the cards to make strong demands
3. Russia is so far unwilling to give up anything they have taken.
4. Without taking drastic measures, the west has no way to force Russia to give up anything they hold.

Zelensky realistic options are very narrow
Nice write up.
On #4,
We have more options than you might first think:
- the sanctions on Russia after the war have definitely been cumbersome, if not debilitating.
- The Ukes have some areas in Russia, that the Ruskies have not yet been able to dislodge (some superpower- ha)
- There is also the threat of the US and the West arming Ukraine to the teeth and perpetual conflict if Russia does not withdraw from most occupied areas (other than Crimea).
- There are plenty of instances where the "winning" side has given up large areas to the "loser" (India/Pakistan wars, Israel giving back the Sinai...and so on).
- Make no mistake this war is very destructive on Russia too.

Need a strong negotiator, Trump needs to be at the top of his game here.


I think the bolded portion is not at all a realistic option. It is incompatible with item #1 in the post you responded to.
Tom Kazansky 2012
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FIDO_Ags
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Quote:

There is also the threat of the US and the West arming Ukraine to the teeth and perpetual conflict if Russia does not withdraw from most occupied areas (other than Crimea).


Why wouldn't this work? The soviets left Afghanistan after 10 years using this method with far fewer mujahadeen chasing them around.

Russia doesn't have as many cards as people think. Ukraine playing defense causes Russia to put up 3:1 ratios. Russia has a long way to go before this war is over.
Who?mikejones!
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Here's the entire quote:

Quote:

Post

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Konstantin Kisin
@KonstantinKisin
It is a tragic irony that European "leaders" were finally stirred into action not by Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine (remember: Germany started out by sending a few thousand helmets) but by having the American protection umbrella under which we've all been living so comfortably taken away.

It's time for us to understand that we must abandon net zero lunacy, grow our economies, encourage business and innovation, re-industrialise our countries, end mass immigration which undermines our sense of unity and common purpose, invest in our armed services (not by making more obsolete tanks and recruiting infantry but by actually anticipating the way wars will be fought in the future) and end our obsession with luxury beliefs.

Europe and Europeans need to wake up, grow up and man up.
ShaggySLC
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BluHorseShu said:

deddog said:

BluHorseShu said:

strbrst777 said:

Z is a rude, ungrateful, disgusting jerk. The meeting was on TV.
Its unfortunate Z let it escalate....but I also think there is some blame on Trump and Vance with how they've played it. Z has everything to lose so he should have thought about that.
Trump and Vance are known quantities. They also hold the purse strings.
Zelensky has no cards to play.
It was stupid.
He doesn't....But if after Pearl Harbor all of our allies just told us to shut up and take it while they work out a peace agreement I'm pretty sure we'd have told them to get bent and kept fighting. Zelensky has baggage, but by no means is the war Ukraines fault. No remotely. This Putin love feast is awful. Reagan is rolling over in his grave.
Ukraine is no where near what the country was during Pearl Harbor, what a **** example. Seriously that's the best you have? Americans banded together and won a war. Ukranian doesn't have that ability. Be better.
chickencoupe16
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

deddog said:

Who?mikejones! said:

ReturnOfTheAg said:

BluHorseShu said:

deddog said:

BluHorseShu said:

strbrst777 said:

Z is a rude, ungrateful, disgusting jerk. The meeting was on TV.
Its unfortunate Z let it escalate....but I also think there is some blame on Trump and Vance with how they've played it. Z has everything to lose so he should have thought about that.
Trump and Vance are known quantities. They also hold the purse strings.
Zelensky has no cards to play.
It was stupid.
He doesn't....But if after Pearl Harbor all of our allies just told us to shut up and take it while they work out a peace agreement I'm pretty sure we'd have told them to get bent and kept fighting. Zelensky has baggage, but by no means is the war Ukraines fault. No remotely. This Putin love feast is awful. Reagan is rolling over in his grave.


THANK YOU

Ukraine was attacked and has fought for 3 years to keep their country EXISTING.

And Zelensky is being chastised for not getting down on his knees and kissing the proverbial ring on the finger when we're demanding him to lay down his arms while Russia gets off virtually scott free?

I'd be pissed off too - he carries the deaths of his countrymen on his heart and is being treated like a Warhawk when he wants a firm, just peace.




I'm not sure i agree with your conclusion on Zelensky's desires. Or, maybe he desires that, but he cannot have it how he wants.

There's clearly no will to do what is necessary to force a Russian capitulation which in my estimation is western boots on the ground.

We could give ukriane every weapon, save nukes, in our arsenal and it probably wouldn't move the needle all that much because ukriane doesn't have the manpower to employ them.

Without western troops, ukriane has proven they can at best create a slowly receding stalemate. And Russia is more than willing to simply send men and machine into the meat grinder for slow but steady gains. I thought Russia would have petered out long ago, but, they fight on.

Option A- we fund what's essentially an endless war or do something unwise like send even more arms to eventually end up destroyed in exchange for little gain.

Option b- we send troops to adequately push back the Russians

Option c- we force peace, which means some tough deals for ukriane to accept. This appears to be Trump's desire

Yes, Russia will probably end up absorbing their ill gotten gains, because there is little to suggest there is both the way and the will to do whats necessary to get them back. I certainly do not see America sending troops. Maybe the euros could get there, but by all reports, Europe's armies are not up to the task.

In summary-

1. trump wants peace and he wants america to not fund this war anymore.
2. Trump's correct opinion, imo, is that ukriane doesn't hold the cards to make strong demands
3. Russia is so far unwilling to give up anything they have taken.
4. Without taking drastic measures, the west has no way to force Russia to give up anything they hold.

Zelensky realistic options are very narrow
Nice write up.
On #4,
We have more options than you might first think:
- the sanctions on Russia after the war have definitely been cumbersome, if not debilitating.
- The Ukes have some areas in Russia, that the Ruskies have not yet been able to dislodge (some superpower- ha)
- There is also the threat of the US and the West arming Ukraine to the teeth and perpetual conflict if Russia does not withdraw from most occupied areas (other than Crimea).
- There are plenty of instances where the "winning" side has given up large areas to the "loser" (India/Pakistan wars, Israel giving back the Sinai...and so on).
- Make no mistake this war is very destructive on Russia too.

Need a strong negotiator, Trump needs to be at the top of his game here.


I think the bolded portion is not at all a realistic option. It is incompatible with item #1 in the post you responded to.
But item 1 is only necessarily in effect for 2 years. A strong flip of Congress could send funding over presidential veto, though this is probably unlikely. And in 4 years, we'll have a new president and I would be shocked if whoever it is is not more friendly to Ukraine. Either of those will be long waiting periods for Ukraine but if they can withstand the initial blow of losing US support and give Europe time to ramp up, they may be able to hold out.
nortex97
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AG
Big if true.

Caution, below is based on CBS "news" which is generally very fake, and in this case attributed to anonymous sources, which may be a 60-minutes writer.
Who?mikejones!
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nortex97
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Hmm, sounds like it. Politico source.
Quote:

Four senior members of Donald Trump's entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv's top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just as Washington aligns with Moscow in seeking to lever the Ukrainian president out of his job.
The senior Trump allies held talks with Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, a remorselessly ambitious former prime minister, and senior members of the party of Petro Poroshenko, Zelenskyy's immediate predecessor as president, according to three Ukrainian parliamentarians and a U.S. Republican foreign policy expert.
The discussions centered on whether Ukraine could hold quick presidential elections. These are being delayed in line with the country's constitution because Ukraine remains under martial law. Critics of holding elections say they could be chaotic and play into Russia's hands, with so many potential voters serving on the front lines or living abroad as refugees.
Quote:

"The elites are feeling very disoriented and shocked because they understand very clearly that without United States support, Ukraine will be defeated," Bortnik added.
Several party and factional leaders have made statements this week saying the priority for Ukraine must be to repair relations with Trump.
They include Ruslan Stefanchuk, chairman of Ukraine's parliament and a member of Zelenskyy's ruling party, as well as Dmytro Razumkov, who led the party to its 2019 parliamentary victory but currently serves as an independent lawmaker. Razumkov has demanded an urgent parliamentary session to set up a special legislative group to oversee relations with the United States.
Trump's decision this week to pause military aid to Ukraine has only added to the political alarm here and has boosted the back-channeling by Ukraine's politicians with Trump World.
On Monday, Trump growled that Zelenskyy "won't be around very long" if progress isn't made on a peace deal that satisfies him. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said Washington needed "a leader that can deal with us, eventually deal with the Russians, and end this war."
Would be very positive if it happens, of course.
Artimus Gordon
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Zelensky made himself expendable with his little democratic tantrum that he threw in the White House. He's not like Joe was where his handlers can wipe his hiney and trot him back onstage. He has become an obstacle to "progress" on the world stage. He has to go. He can't be trusted. You zlemsky lovers are just going to have to accept the fact..
Burdizzo
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My memory is a little fuzzy on all this, and I did not have time to go back and read that 48,000-reply thread on the war. But weren't we told early on that the Russians could only last a few months and that the brave Ukrainians were about push them out?
Who?mikejones!
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Thats a question for the other russia thread
nortex97
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Trump is also apparently fed up with the Ukrainian 'refugees' (many of whom have been receiving federal benefits such as social security, and they also went out and protested that he didn't bow before Zelensky).



'Sorry, you've got to go back.'
PlaneCrashGuy
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That is exactly what USAID funded propagandists in Ukraine were peddling online both early on and throughout. Examples include the "Ghost of Kyiv" and " Russia is using chips from laundry machines"

The Uke counteroffensive was supposed to retake Crimea but it stalled well short and Ukraine has been on their heels ever since.
PlaneCrashGuy
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To me, the portion I bolded reads more like fan fiction than a likely option that is being considered or will be considered 4 years from now. That is just my opinion.
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nortex97
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More reporting of pressure for 'emergency elections.'

Honesty from Rubio:


Zelensky's just gonna have to go, at this point. It's pretty clear.
ReturnOfTheAg
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nortex97 said:

More reporting of pressure for 'emergency elections.'

Honesty from Rubio:


Zelensky's just gonna have to go, at this point. It's pretty clear.


No. It's not clear

J. Walter Weatherman
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ReturnOfTheAg said:

nortex97 said:

More reporting of pressure for 'emergency elections.'

Honesty from Rubio:


Zelensky's just gonna have to go, at this point. It's pretty clear.


No. It's not clear




Definitely not. Also not clear he'd lose given the current polling.

https://www.survation.com/is-zelenskyy-losing-public-support-examining-approval-trust-and-attitudes-toward-war-and-peace-in-ukraine/

Quote:

First up if Ukraine were to amend the law regarding running elections during wartime and run a Presidential election, this first-round hypothetical voting intention, including his 2019 election rival and former President Petro Poroshenko shows that Zelenskyy would very likely be elected to a second term. We've included the popular Ukrainian four-star general and diplomat Zaluzhnyi who is currently serving as Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, who places a distant second. For reference, Zelensky took 31% of first round votes in 2019, so is +13 since then.




ReturnOfTheAg
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The idea that Zelensky is not well-liked Ukraine is a Russian propaganda farce.

To think otherwise is foolish. He's a wartime president who has fought diplomatically tooth and nail and never once abandoned his population when things got dire.
 
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