Is there some kind of warning system that goes out over cell phones - like when a missing person alert happens. Something that would wake you up in the middle of the night and give you enough time to try to get out and/or to higher ground?

jopatura said:

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WestHoustonAg79 said:

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nortex97 said:

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aginlakeway said:

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nortex97 said:

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Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

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It unexpectedly rose 25 feet in 45 minutes. At 5 am. When less than 8 inches was the forecast.

I'm not blaming anyone for this. And i have family of friends still missing. Some long-time TexAgs posters have family missing. And they don't seem to be blaming anyone. See awesome thread on Outdoors board. Very informative.

Still wondering whose heads should roll in Kerrville. That comment is what started this portion of the discussion.

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First, I consider this an example of an invalid appeal to authority. You may, as I do, find that thread informative yet it is also full of people with loved ones missing/deceased, and I am not going to assign any figment of blame or suggest remedial policy actions there. Second, your friends and family being missing adds absolutely zero to your credibility/status as a subject expert on any of these topics, any more than your having once apparently resided in Lakeway does. It's akin to nurses etc. claiming people should wear a mask around in public during Fauci's reign of terror, and people considering them experts because they work in a medical field/facility, and their viewpoint deserves more sympathy/authority as a result.

The forecast accurately predicted a deluge upstream of those camps (on already soaked ground/rocks), and while the amount the river would rise by was not clear (no one anticipated the 5 am 45 minute 25 foot rise), it was predicted to be a dangerous situation. This was not a surprise storm. An accurate meteorological prediction was noted on this thread early on, or the OB one.

The camp adult staff apparently chose not to monitor the situation via eye site/checks or via radio/communications otherwise overnight. I don't think it's fair to say 'poor cell coverage' and 'they needed some sleep' are acceptable answers when dozens are missing and many more barely awoke to cling to rafters until the wall of their structures blew out etc. I don't consider that acceptable risk management, and radio/cellular communications are issues that can actually be managed today, this isn't some 1876 movie/TV set. You can again disagree with me freely, and I don't claim to be a camp management/safety expert, I just am not willing to cede to your point that their overnight 6-8 hours of sleep was appropriately managed given the situation(s) and responsibilities they bore.

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Apparently is why you should hop off for a bit and come at this objectively when aftermath data and intel is available. "Apparently" implies speculation. Which I think is gross to push (and defend) at this moment in time. Disagree with me all you want I just think it's not constructive to have this conversation yet. But you do you and defend your right to dive in here bud. Just yuck.

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Firsthand accounts say there was someone at Camp Mystic monitoring the river and was a big reason why Camp LaJunta had no casualties. Unfortunately the biggest problem Camp Mystic had was assuming they were on high enough ground.

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Agree with Alaska above me completely.

There will be a multitude of first hand accounts that will come out over the coming days and weeks. Don't want to even think about the aftermath of legal and other implications/roads this tragedy will follow down.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you on whatever speculation you're putting out there.

I just think we have an obligation as Ags, Texans, and members of our communities to hold this rhetoric off while we sort things out. It's not that hard of a concept to understand where myself and other posters are coming from.

I find it irresponsible, not constructive, and disagree with it completely. Hard stop. Especially on a public forum that you know with certainty has members of your community's lives altered forever and many more that are processing and figuring out for others they have strong relationships with.

If you want to tell me I'm wrong there. Please do. That's where we'll have to agree to disagree.

For the record, my family is not in the cross hairs here but many I know it has impacted deeply.

There will be time for this. But all "first hand accounts" and other data points as it sits right now at 530 July 5th will likely be found different as it plays out. And just not worth it in time of crises especially when it's in your own sphere of folks you post on a public forum as a unifying identity in.

I'm done with this but that's my viewpoint and sticking to it. Ignore my posts if you want but calling it like I see it. And y'all's posts clearly not lifting up the community at large. It is tough to see.

ttu_85 said:

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AgPrognosticator said:

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Squadron7 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

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Using what tools?

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Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…

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Yeah what kid or councilor is on their phone at 4:00 AM. I'm a weather nut and was already following this system. Nobody saw an event of this magnitude coming. The NWS did good, given the circumstances, just to have a FF watch in effect.

Arm chair QB's are the worst.

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Local government needs to wear this.

Both warnings posted by NWS were clear cut and bold about this being life threatening, and location, even mentioning "campers" and "Kerrville". The flash flood emergency issued at 5:34 am on July 4th. "AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES A LARGE AND DEADLY WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THE GUADALUPE… pic.twitter.com/5Om57xffu9

— Rosievortwx🌩️ (@Rosievortwx) July 5, 2025

itsyourboypookie said:

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ttu_85 said:

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AgPrognosticator said:

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Squadron7 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Yes. If you are in charge of a bunch of kids by a river, someone should be awake/on CQ duty to monitor for flooding if this is a risk to the site that evening especially. To me this seems self-evident.

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Using what tools?

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Using a satellite app on your phone would have been sufficient enough to predict a storm surge on the Guadalupe.

I have no stake in the level of the Guadalupe, but when I saw the tropical storm swirling over Hunt at midnight, I knew the Guadalupe would be flooding.

Camp directors absolutely MUST know this…

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Yeah what kid or councilor is on their phone at 4:00 AM. I'm a weather nut and was already following this system. Nobody saw an event of this magnitude coming. The NWS did good, given the circumstances, just to have a FF watch in effect.

Arm chair QB's are the worst.

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Local government needs to wear this.

Both warnings posted by NWS were clear cut and bold about this being life threatening, and location, even mentioning "campers" and "Kerrville". The flash flood emergency issued at 5:34 am on July 4th. "AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES A LARGE AND DEADLY WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THE GUADALUPE… pic.twitter.com/5Om57xffu9

— Rosievortwx🌩️ (@Rosievortwx) July 5, 2025

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Yall do you

I thought the camps were hit with water before 5 a.m.?

BBRex said:

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I thought the camps were hit with water before 5 a.m.?

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Armchair QBs continue…

A. G. Pennypacker said:

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Is there some kind of warning system that goes out over cell phones - like when a missing person alert happens. Something that would wake you up in the middle of the night and give you enough time to try to get out and/or to higher ground?

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They already have that in place - Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA). If you don't have a cell phone, then you can get warnings using weather radios.

HowdyTexasAggies said:

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BBRex said:

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I thought the camps were hit with water before 5 a.m.?

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Pretty confident is was as as early as 3-4am based on accounts I am aware. 5:30 AM was a way too late.

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But heads have to roll!

WestHoustonAg79 said:

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HowdyTexasAggies said:

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BBRex said:

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I thought the camps were hit with water before 5 a.m.?

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Pretty confident is was as as early as 3-4am based on accounts I am aware. 5:30 AM was a way too late.

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But heads have to roll!

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It wouldn't have mattered if they issued it at 3am. The cell coverage out in that area is terrible.

aginlakeway said:

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Why does it have to be someone's fault?

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Guess its been 8 years now since Harvey so I almost forgot how people lose their minds in times of crisis like this. The main thread on the outdoor board is a total mess now.

Remember we are dealing with a slow moving wall of water that originated near Camp Mystic. Camp Mystic is 6 miles upstream from Hunt which is about 13 miles from Kerrville.

Camp Mystic had no chance at warnings unless an active flood monitoring service was calculating real time rain rates. Is this a service the camps should have paid for? Probably.

The 4:20 am flood emergency warning did not include Kerrville and I maintain this was irresponsible. From what I've seen of the timeline, this warning was issued in real-time with the wall of water moving through Hunt.

When the 5:34 am flood emergency warning came for Kerrville, the city did not activate emergency evacuations for low-lying RV Parks and camping grounds along the Guadalupe.

I fully believe the loss of life could have been altered in Kerrville if evacuations started at 4:20 am, nearly 3 hours before the wall of water hit Kerrville.

Not really. Your phone receives NWS alerts but they can be turned off with the Amber Alerts. Many people do. Also when campers are traveling to an area with poor cell service, there is high chance they won't get pushed those alerts because their E911 cell location never updates with the closest towers. This was a big problem in Wimberley 10 years ago.

BBRex said:

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I thought the camps were hit with water before 5 a.m.?

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Warnings were in place on the 3rd and went out at 1:14 am declaring a flash flood warning.

I'm not Monday morning quarterbacking anything. County judge said this is the most dangerous valley in the USA, it wasn't treated like that on this occasion.

Can't blame a 'defunded' national weather service that sent out warnings.

Local government is to blame.

We were definitely flooded at our place with 3 - 4 feet over the highway at about 3:45; just below Mystic.

About 8 weeks ago we had a 17" rain event with mass flooding here in the Ozarks. Flash Flood Warnings and River Flood Warnings were issued with about 4 hours notice to lots of areas.
We got these notices on cell phones as usual.
However the authorities also did " Reverse 911 calls" on both landlines and cell phones in affected areas as I understand it …..As those were actual calls folks paid attention and answered the calls.

Great if you have phone service.

Yep

43 now confirmed dead in Guadalupe River flood. 27 Camp Mystic girls remain missing.

This is so sad.

[Alright, everyone needs to work to bring the temp down on this unfolding event here in Texas. An event less than 24 hours old with many hours, days, and perhaps weeks left ahead of it. This event is obviously very tragic and it does include people and communities related to users of these forums, including moderators. This is the politics forum, so yes, there will be some leeway given on talking about the situation from a political standpoint. The main thread on the Outdoor board has taken the "pole position" on being the news of the unfolding situation. This thread is a mixture of the same, but lets continue to be respectful of each other and all of the people impacted by this situation. This includes local officials in the area. There will be plenty of time to analyze and talk through what was done and what was not done to protect people, but right now the facts on the ground are not well known enough to be hyper critical and search and rescue operations are still ongoing. Thank you. -Staff]

Good point, staff. It is the politics board. Thanks for the note of goodwill.

But still.

Anti-taxxer said:

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Good point, staff. It is the politics board. Thanks for the note of goodwill.

But still.

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Thx dawg

agsalaska said:

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Which was a fair, if not ultimately wrong, assumption. The water had not reached that level in recorded history. Not close really.

Someone earlier said that they didn't have a chance and I think that's correct.

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Likely correct. As I stated earlier, I worked there 30 years ago and am familiar with how the Flats are situated. That had to be a shocking amount of water to get that high that fast.

Terrible situation.

Plus, generally the higher it gets, the slower it rises due to widening. That doesn't seem to be the case here.

Flow was increasing exponentially.

DonHenley said:

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The libs, as expected, are delusional and insane on this tragedy. Every day they sink lower to a new low

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They are filling me with a certain resolve. I promise you.

DonHenley said:

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The libs, as expected, are delusional and insane on this tragedy. Every day they sink lower to a new low

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I have seen completely insane takes online in the last 24 hours. Anything from "Trump caused this" to "Texas deserves this for voting for Trump". Not to mention the armchair QBs that think this could have been predicted, but its also climate change that Republicans caused.

Exactly. I can't understand why people go to places where people say those things.

Actually the only place o have seen any of that in the last two days is people reposting it here.

agsalaska said:

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Exactly. I can't understand why people go to places where people say those things.

Actually the only place o have seen any of that in the last two days is people reposting it here.

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I understand the thought, but if either side of the political aisle ignored these places (social media), they would concede virtually every election moving forward

DonHenley said:

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The libs, as expected, are delusional and insane on this tragedy. Every day they sink lower to a new low

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They are functional ******s. Keep that in mind when reading their drivel:

agsalaska said:

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Exactly. I can't understand why people go to places where people say those things.

Actually the only place o have seen any of that in the last two days is people reposting it here.

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Literally any news article where there is a comments section. Libs just cannot help but to show their asses every chance they get.

Stop reading them.

I used to read them too. Life is better when you don't read that nonsense.