Camp Mystic and Guadalupe updates

217,596 Views | 848 Replies | Last: 7 days ago by BadMoonRisin
tamc93
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AG
Not to further downgrade CFM since they do have a specialty, but you do not need much experience to achieve the status. Study (maybe not with experience) and take the exam.

My son was a CFM after 2 years out of school and barely knew how to run a model. Proud to announce he now has his PE, which actually makes the CFM look better.

Who?mikejones!
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Teslag said:

Walter E. Kurtz said:

State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.


The state health dept is the one who manages and liscenses camps.

Iirc when we were going through it, i think you just had to have a plan on file. I cannot remember if the inspector actually reviewed the plan or simply asked for proof of a plan.
W
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5Amp said:

Teslag said:

Walter E. Kurtz said:

State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.
It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work....

in the time allocated by the storm
W
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riverrataggie said:

Teslag said:

5Amp said:

Teslag said:

Walter E. Kurtz said:

State inspectors reviewed and approved Mystics flood response plan on July 2, just 2 days before the flood.

We discussed this a bit back, looks like it was just a state health department inspection, not a detailed look at their flood safety plan.
It does not matter even if it was the proper authorities who reviewed the response plan, the camp's flood response plan didn't work.

The regulators check to see if you have the minimum requirements and if you do, they will sign it off. It is up to the owner of the plan to properly execute the plan. Obviously, their plan was not implemented as written and that is a huge problem for the camp management.

With senior titles come perks and accolades but also responsibility and ownership.



I'm just really hesitant to blame the owner's for their plans or actions. They obviously cared about this place and the well being of these girls. It's possible their plan was the best one possible and was carried out well and nature still won.
I'm starting to think this. To successfully move all those girls out of harms way, they would have basically started to do it the night before.
yes, in part because of the highway -- something has to be done to upgrade / improve it
Who?mikejones!
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Okay, spent today volunteering in Leander at sandy creek.

Its a mess. There's plenty of volunteers and almost too many supplies.

I wouldn't recommend just showing up. I had a contact. Go through adrn or something similar.

The main volunteering effort is not being run through state resources. Its civilian led, best i can tell. The search for remaining victims is being done by state resources or random groups of lay people who i don't think are supposed to be doing so. I don't know how much the state or Travis county is involved in caring for the residents. Govt officials are on the ground for recover efforts and engineering.

There is some mucking happening...but, most houses that are left aren't worth it. From what I saw, if the water hit the house, the house went away.

As someone who is trained in response, it was hard to grasp what was going on, how supplies were being distributed, or how volunteers were being placed. I saw some cleanup crews and there was one section that had a dozen or so skid steers clearing debris. Sounds nice except they are still looking for fatalities.

I have a feeling there'd be a good case study to be had on what happens when there's a slow or delayed response by civil authorities and the void is filled by lay people.

All that said, the response by the civilians is great and they are working theor asses off. The only way to get supplies to one section is to physically walk it across the bridge.

If you do show up, sign up via the phone number first. They'll place you somewhere. Or, theres some "non official" routes one could take and go directly to some of the people doing cleaning.

oldag941
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Not sure of your experience with CFM's and not to turn this into a pissing match, but at our national civil firm they serve an important role in both the modeling but also the subsequent design, closed conduit and open channel hydraulics. Local metroplex news has recently (today) had civil professors (licensed PE's with their CFM) explaining the situation in layman's terms. The CFM knowledge, and those with the vertification, is critical to a lot of what is being discussed.
Teslag
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oldag941 said:

Not sure of your experience with CFM's and not to turn this into a pissing match, but at our national civil firm they serve an important role in both the modeling but also the subsequent design, closed conduit and open channel hydraulics. Local metroplex news has recently (today) had civil professors (licensed PE's with their CFM) explaining the situation in layman's terms. The CFM knowledge, and those with the vertification, is critical to a lot of what is being discussed.

Amen. Not sure what this guy's beef is with CFM's but their roles are as diverse as their backgrounds. Some work in civil firms and of course do modeling. And many work in the "real world" in offices and field work around the state managing a vital part of our water ways and how they affect people and businesses.
FM 949
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I'm extremely aware of what CFMs do. The vast majority are like college professors that spout theoretical things and don't understand how they apply in real world applications and basic civil engineering design. Thanks.

My issue is specifically your dismissive attitude to things presented to you and your inability to process things presented to you because you don't have 100% certainty. It truly is the difference between application and theoretical.

I apologize for the rhetoric. I understand it's not helpful to this discussion but your responses have frustrated me this afternoon because they truly come off as someone reaching for straws in the face of things presented.
aggiederelict
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I got a group of guys willing to help this weekend in this area. We have a chainsaws and can help clear debris. What number do we contact? Anything else we should know before heading up?
Teslag
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FM 949 said:

I'm extremely aware of what CFMs do. The vast majority are like college professors that spout theoretical things and don't understand how they apply in real world applications and basic civil engineering design. Thanks.


I apologize for the rhetoric. I understand it's not helpful to this discussion.

Interesting. Almost all of the CFM's I know are civil engineers and heavily involved in the design process. And not just involved, but critical to it. In fact, at one point I don't think I knew any that weren't also PE's.
Who?mikejones!
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aggiederelict said:

I got a group of guys willing to help this weekend in this area. We have a chainsaws and can help clear debris. What number do we contact? Anything else we should know before heading up?




Like I said, it isnt the most organized relief effort I've ever seen. I sent a text and filled out the info and didnt hear back. Ill probably be back tomorrow and will ask around. You might just have to show up and find a local resident who needs help.
nortex97
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Well put. I am staying off this thread now for a couple reasons but it's clear you have valid points here. It's also clear when this became a 'competitive' thread for some this week, for at least a couple folks.
Teslag
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Quote:


I apologize for the rhetoric. I understand it's not helpful to this discussion but your responses have frustrated me this afternoon because they truly come off as someone reaching for straws in the face of things presented.

It's understandable as it's an emotional issue. But it's pretty clear at this point those affected cabins were more than likely still well inside the floodway and should have been moved or repurposed. Going forward I imagine that will happen at every similar camp along a river. With good reason.
WBBQ74
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Here is the Google Map of the area for Camp Mystic. Upper right in the bend of the river.
ts5641
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Teslag said:

Quote:


I apologize for the rhetoric. I understand it's not helpful to this discussion but your responses have frustrated me this afternoon because they truly come off as someone reaching for straws in the face of things presented.

It's understandable as it's an emotional issue. But it's pretty clear at this point those affected cabins were more than likely still well inside the floodway and should have been moved or repurposed. Going forward I imagine that will happen at every similar camp along a river. With good reason.
I hate that we never do things proactively. We always wait until a tragedy to change things.
WBBQ74
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Here is the current FIRM panel for same area. As of 2011. Note that Camp Mystic is in Zone AE Floodway (The diagonal red stripes). The black squiggly lines are the estimated elevations of the 100 year flood as the water flows downstream. This is computed via computer modelling (HEC-RAS) and accepted by FEMA. Zone AE is called a 'studied reach' meaning it has been modelled. Zone A is called an 'unstudied reach' meaning the limits are estimated by FEMA and used by county flood plain administrators to regulate development unless the developer submits a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR) to FEMA to get this mapping revised. Long time and expensive process to get thru the regulatory pipeline (Easy 6 month to a year deal).

I don't know which buildings on Camp Mystic are the ones tragically affected, just showing the overall all area and how much of it was in the 'regulated' flood plains. 1 more post coming.
WBBQ74
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Here is an 'amendment' to the previously posted FIRM map. This was noted earlier in the thread with a link. I am assuming 2689 Hwy 39 is Camp Mystic. There was not an exhibit included in the website showing the various locations of all these buildings, which was also referenced earlier. Note the references between 100 year flood elevations (In the 1838 to 1839 VF range) and adjacent ground elevations - outside of the respective buildings (How they keep score on this stuff). This document was the result of on the ground surveying and some hydraulic modelling. You can assume the respective building slab elevations were perhaps 8" to 12" above the adjacent ground. Note that only Building 25 is lower than the adjacent 100 year flood elevation. No way to tell from this document which one onsite this is. This LOMRFW was done in 2013.

All this information is public record and easily found if you know where to look. FIRM maps often get revised/reissued about every 10 years or so but that can vary from locale to locale. I have no idea where Kerr County stands in the FIRM map revision process and would differ to anyone plugged into that process.

Hope this helps show what the folks regulating this area worked with. Not trying to CYA for anyone. I am sure changes are coming.
Teslag
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Nm
AF2011
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I think that's the lower cabins that you've marked in red. The ones with the fatalities are a bit left of that - a little more central, but still in AE…
jopatura
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It's hard to tell because the tennis courts are different. I think it is possible the flooded cabins are in the all yellow area.
AF2011
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Oh maybe. It's really close whichever it is…
torrid
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Obviously this was a terrible place to put the cabins for a summer camp, but they were put there 100 years ago before modern flood plain modeling. Oh, here's a nice broad flat spot. And it's right next to the river, too!
Teslag
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jopatura said:

It's hard to tell because the tennis courts are different. I think it is possible the flooded cabins are in the all yellow area.


I zoomed in and compared to the Mystic camp maps. Twins Cabin in yellow. Bubble Inn in red.


WBBQ74
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jopatura said:

It's hard to tell because the tennis courts are different. I think it is possible the flooded cabins are in the all yellow area.
This is the 500 year flood area on this FIRM panel. 0.20% change of occurrence. The terminology can be misleading but it is how they keep score. Insurance thing, which is the primary reason there are flood plain maps. Sounds callous but what it is. Money/loss/financial risk.

Loss of life is obviously more important and much more tragic. The insurance folks and the attorney folks will fight over this for a few years likely. While the rest of us remember the people who died in the middle of the night.
Teslag
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Agreed. From looking at my above image, it appears the two most affected cabins were definitely in the 100yr area, with one being completely in the floodway boundary.
HTownAg98
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Everyone who looked at that document yesterday said pretty much the same thing.
Alta
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So based on that map Bubble Inn was feet away from being in the 500 year flood plain and not the 100 year flood plain? And since the cabin is elevated there is a decent chance it's elevation made it not above the 100 year flood plain?
Teslag
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Possibly, hard to say without the supporting exhibits which cabins were included in the LOMR determination. One thing to point out is that I think I saw that those in Bubble Inn were being evacuated on foot to the rec center, which is to the north (not shown in my image as it's new. Currently sits on area of those tennis courts). So they would have been traversing the floodway to get to safety.
Alta
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Ok - I'm no mathematician but if that's the the risk of being flooded (which can mean inches of water and not full of water) then the risk would be something like .2% divided by 5 (cabins are only occupied about 70 days a year) divided by 2.5 (these girls are not in the cabin that much. My guess is we all do things on a daily basis with our kids that are much riskier than where this cabin was situated.

Just a horrendous accident.
aggiederelict
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Thanks man. I appreciate the info.
Teslag
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Yep. And as the other CFM noted, these maps aren't created to formulate safety plans or personal risk assessment. They exist for insurance purposes and to a lesser extent to manage floodway development. I still like to take positive approach and that's these owners did a remarkable job saving so many of these girls when they did, especially from cabins closer to the river than these shown. And many of these counselors (who were basically not much older than the girls they were saving) were almost herculean in their efforts to save them given the circumstances.

There will be a lot of map revisions after this. Probably, and sadly, some finger pointing by lawyers. Biggest thing to take away is that hopefully everyone remembers how powerful and fast the river rises going forward.
WBBQ74
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Alta said:

Ok - I'm no mathematician but if that's the the risk of being flooded (which can mean inches of water and not full of water) then the risk would be something like .2% divided by 5 (cabins are only occupied about 70 days a year) divided by 2.5 (these girls are not in the cabin that much. My guess is we all do things on a daily basis with our kids that are much riskier than where this cabin was situated.

Just a horrendous accident.
The 100 year flood areas mean that there is a 1% chance of the water surface elevation being that high. The Zone AE black lines show 1840' and 1835' in the floodway, meaning that the 100 year water surface elevation varies between those 2 elevations as the water runs downstream.

The 500 year flood areas mean that there is a 0.2% chance of the same, but the FIRM maps don't show the corresponding water surface elevations. They are obviously higher. How much? Guessing here, maybe a foot or two higher or so. The HEC-RAS model done back in 2011 would have included these computations. It's all theoretical until it really happens.
Rattler12
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Teslag said:

Agreed. From looking at my above image, it appears the two most affected cabins were definitely in the 100yr area, with one being completely in the floodway boundary.
We've lived right off the Guadalupe River just west of 281 for 30 years and going back to 78 there have been three events that have put water into the 100 year flood plain and several more that came close. The floods of 78, 98 and 2002 did, Ones in 97 and 2015 and this one in 25 had big rises on the river. That's a period of 47 years with two within 4 years of each other. I don't put much stock in the 100 year flood plain plan prognosis'.......
Teslag
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Quote:

That's a period of 47 years with two within 4 years of each other. I don't put much stock in the 100 year flood plain plan prognosis'......

Point to keep in mind is that "100 year" is a bit of a misnomer and causes a lot of confusion. It just means there's a 1% annual chance of it happening, which over 100 years means it's probable it will happen at least once. It's entirely possible for it to happen multiple times in 100 years. And it's wise to remember that over the years maps do change as development and runoff coefficients change in the contributing basin.

Also, when you look at rainfall intensities there's often not a huge difference between Q25, Q50, and Q100 events.
TRM
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100 yr event doesn't mean a storm that bad only happens once every hundred years. It means 1% of flooding in a given year, so if you were to look at 20 yr period, you'd have about an 18% chance that a "100 year flood" occurred.
 
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