Sea Speed said:

---

There was a household robot that launched for preorder a couple of months back that I assume is going to be not nearly as good as Optimus and I they had an insane amount of orders in the first couple of hours. You will also see these things at factories and the like as well. I don't think humanity will have a choice but to adopt them.

---

I think we'll see a pretty significant divergence between commercial adoption and household adoption. I can absolutely see them landing in inventory driven businesses both in a warehouse and shelf stocking capacity. I fully expect to find out HEB jumps in feet first very quickly. However as cool as I think it will be and as much as I'm going to be fine if Mrs LOYAL AG wants to drop $20k on one she's going to say no. There's nothing it can do that we can't do for ourselves. It's the very definition of a luxury purchase. People will by them for their homes but widespread adoption will be slow after the initial surge.

My $.02.

I pay our house cleaner $150/week and she doesn't do dishes, laundry, or the lawn. I will be buying Optimus as soon as it's available as long as it is under 40k bucks.

Think they're better off just selling service hours rather than selling robots for non-commercial users. Send 6 robots to clean someone's house in 1/6th the time for a fraction of the cost of buying a robot or paying a maid. $5/hr per bot. Each bot makes ~$35,000 per year in revenue. Stick charging ports in Cybercabs and Robovans so if you need a platoon they come with 4 hours of run time each. If your task requires more than 4 hours of operation a second platoon shows up to pick up exactly where your first platoon left off and your initial one leaves to transit to their next task charging along the way. 20 hour up time, discounted rates for utilization after dark.

I can't wait for the Sydney Sweeney version of Optimus.

Hilarious dichotomy.

Unsupervised without chase tailing cars are truly here in Austin!!! 🙌

Ride 58 was my magic number, what a truly awesome experience. Made the whole week worth it & then some.

Tesla Robotaxi Model Y flys under the radar, nobody knew I was in a self driving car. @robotaxi pic.twitter.com/iTeKKoteEf

— David Moss (@DavidMoss) January 29, 2026

What would be the ratio of 3D printing machines to Optimus to create a lucrative ghost gun shop while I work my day job?

Just your own personal sweat shop without the sweat.

$TSLA

BLOOMBERG: SPACEX CONSIDERING TO MERGE WITH TESLA & XAI

bro…

“Musk has also discussed using SpaceX’s Starship rockets to carry Tesla’s Optimus robots to the moon as well as to Mars. xAI could benefit enormously from computing capacity provided by SpaceX’s data centers… pic.twitter.com/LMEefbI4f4

— amit (@amitisinvesting) January 29, 2026

Musk has commented the companies are converging in some ways they hadn't anticipated. Would be fascinating to see such a merger, but I doubt it happens. Not worth the cash/debt to actually 'buy out' each other.

SpaceX is going to be 'going public' with a (small initial) stock offering toward June. With TSLA worth around $1.5 trillion (present market cap), SpaceX is estimated to have an initial valuation around the same.

For now https://t.co/zvjeeogPjr

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 29, 2026

Cash flow is always nice but they will need a tremendous shift/growth to hit the valuation metrics they have set imho. It's also possible at some point SpaceX will spin off Starlink, but I believe that is becoming less likely over time.

An integration between TSLA and X/Grok might make more (commercial) sense.

This is the automotive board. We can't understand all this high level business talk.

We are just a bunch of grease monkeys, hot rodders, and knuckle draggers.

It's a stock based acquisition. No cash/debt. Tesla issues shares diluting their shareholders. Gives shares to SpaceX shareholders. Tesla shareholders own a smaller piece of a company twice as large at a net better value.


Would be somewhat surprised if it doesn't end up being all three under a single ticker. Because Musk owns so much of SpaceX and xAI he would end up with the 25% or close to it in the resulting business he wants in order to be unreserved in developing all forms of AI.

xAI, SpaceX and Tesla are all going to need a lot of money to accomplish their goals. Tesla is building millions of autonomous vehicles, SpaceX is building thousands of Starships, xAI is building thousands of satellite data centers.

My issue is it's a free cash flow of roughly $6 billion for Tesla, and likely a negative figure for SpaceX and Xai. Yes, sure, strong market positions respectfully but if looking toward a $3.5+ Trillion market capitalization, it would require absurd levels of growth over the next 5 years, and SpaceX seems dedicated to losing money from a cash flow perspective for probably 10 years, given their Martian and data center perspectives. Licensing agreements would seem…much safer.

I'm a fan, and (full disclosure) own TSLA stock I just don't think this mega-merger, even if debt free, makes sense for shareholders. But I'll take that derail from car talk here elsewhere if it's a distraction.

SpaceX is cash flow positive according to Musk and has been for "many years". They're dropping Starlink prices, reducing hardware costs (often giving the dish and a Starlink mini away for free at sign up), and expanding package variety to fill out their bandwidth capacity. You can get Starlink now, in undersubscribed areas, at costs similar to cable. Their subscriber base grew from 4 million at the end of 2024 to 9 million at the end of 2025. Throw in Starship, when proven, dramatically reducing launch costs, build out into mobile carrier coverage expansion, further penetration into commercial/government customers (Cruise, Aviation, Military) and the potential for customers launching data center compute into orbit.

Would be wholly unsurprised if Starlink within 5 years is the largest U.S. based internet provider. Current growth rate has them surpassing Comcast by 2027. I think you're wrong about SpaceX being a cash burning enterprise going forward. Mars exploration will be expensive, but it's limited to a once every 2 years cycle so the amount of spend is governed and with the overlap with Optimus you can dramatically reduce cost by limiting life support expenses/risk.

There has been a lot of press claiming @SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate.

SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors.

Valuation increments are a…

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 6, 2025

Musk's compensation plan has a market cap target for Tesla of $8.5T and an EBITDA target of $400B annual (that's 2.7x Apple's last year). At an $8.5T valuation it would be a 9.2% return rate, giving Tesla a multiple equivalent to Apple on that EBITDA figure and you get a $10.5T market cap and a 11.6% return using your $3.5T post merger market cap as a starting point with just Tesla's business as the sole driver of growth. I think SpaceX would be a major contributor too. Musk has had two compensation packages since Tesla IPO'd. He has hit all targets and hit them ahead of time.

Musk's own claims are that he could see Tesla, alone, being a $25T company. Requires a lot of "if's" to become "actuals." For whatever that's worth.

In the future, you can have an Optimus in your car. For road rage, you can just have your robots fight each other and see whose Optimus wins.

Mine is going to be a grass type.

GeorgiAg said:

---

In the future, you can have an Optimus in your car. For road rage, you can just have your robots fight each other and see whose Optimus wins.

---

That is an exciting prospect. I need the Tesla minivan so I can carry 6 or 7 robots for all my road rage.

hph6203 said:

---

Just your own personal sweat shop without the sweat.

---

Being the head of a robots rights union sounds like a better wealth building opportunity. All the grift money with less up front capital costs

My Wife has a model X and it is a great great car. 3 rows captain seat in middle, great for a family of 5 with lots of room. I am going to miss not being to get another in future.

Looks like XAi merging with Space X which will IPO around 1.5T-2T. I am very heavy TSLA stock and glad they did not merge with SpaceX due to all the regulation uncertainties. XAi and Spacex Merge makes more sense.

From an investment standpoint, Will continue to hold/add onto Tsla because a robot would be ubiquitous. Those who said they can do things themselves will start to understand life creep. Imagine if you do not have to do laundry, dishes, vacuum, throw out trash, lawncare? This is 10+ hrs a week that you can go work out, hobbies, work, sleep, etc.

I am hopeful that Tesla shareholders will have a pre IPO option to buy SpaceX/XAI because I will jump on this in a heartbeat.

My Y is telling me it's time to fr true windshield in front of the camera cleaned. How long does that typically take? I've got to take it to The Woodlands or Cypress so it's a commitment and I'm wondering about how much time to allot.

LOYAL AG said:

---

My Y is telling me it's time to fr true windshield in front of the camera cleaned. How long does that typically take? I've got to take it to The Woodlands or Cypress so it's a commitment and I'm wondering about how much time to allot.

---

Can't it just drive itself to a car wash while you're at work?

lb3 said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

My Y is telling me it's time to fr true windshield in front of the camera cleaned. How long does that typically take? I've got to take it to The Woodlands or Cypress so it's a commitment and I'm wondering about how much time to allot.

---

Can't it just drive itself to a car wash while you're at work?

---

lol. Not yet. That probably wouldn't go well anyway since it's the inside of the windshield.

LOYAL AG said:

---

My Y is telling me it's time to fr true windshield in front of the camera cleaned. How long does that typically take? I've got to take it to The Woodlands or Cypress so it's a commitment and I'm wondering about how much time to allot.

---

Someone above posted they watched a youtube video and did it themselves. Said it wasn't bad.

GeorgiAg said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

My Y is telling me it's time to fr true windshield in front of the camera cleaned. How long does that typically take? I've got to take it to The Woodlands or Cypress so it's a commitment and I'm wondering about how much time to allot.

---

Someone above posted they watched a youtube video and did it themselves. Said it wasn't bad.

---

Thought about that. We have a rattle that I think is coming from there so I figured I was best off letting them get into it.

LOYAL AG said:

---

My Y is telling me it's time to fr true windshield in front of the camera cleaned. How long does that typically take? I've got to take it to The Woodlands or Cypress so it's a commitment and I'm wondering about how much time to allot.

---

Took me 10ish minutes to do it the first time in my 2023 Y. You'll need a trim tool, pop off the small mirror stalk cover, turn mirror stalk to the left to pop out, use trim tool to release the main cover and you'll be able to access where to clean. I think you also have to drop the mirror hood, be careful of the clips in this step.

LOYAL AG said:

---

GeorgiAg said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

My Y is telling me it's time to fr true windshield in front of the camera cleaned. How long does that typically take? I've got to take it to The Woodlands or Cypress so it's a commitment and I'm wondering about how much time to allot.

---

Someone above posted they watched a youtube video and did it themselves. Said it wasn't bad.

---

Thought about that. We have a rattle that I think is coming from there so I figured I was best off letting them get into it.

---

I did as well and I haven't noticed it since doing this, but I'm also more confident now to remove the main cover & put in some anti-rattle tape if it comes back.

Heads up to anyone that does it. If you open your camera housing and a little black piece with a dome and clips falls out, you (probably) didn't break anything and it's not that important. It's the dummy camera hole cover for the right most camera opening (facing forward inside the car). Took me 30 minutes to figure it out, and after the frustration of thinking I broke something I just wanted to be done with it and ended up breaking one of the tabs on the second camera housing.

This is only relevant to HW4 cars. HW3 has an actual camera in that spot.

It's a 10 minute process if it goes well. Annoying if it doesn't. Hopefully don't need to do it for a long time and may just schedule service to have it done going forward.

****ty design that their camera gets dirty on its own instead of being sealed

That solution would be worse. If your windshield breaks, do you want to have to reseal the housing to the windshield when it's replaced? The solution isn't preventing the early infrequent occlusion to the cameras (due to adhesive off gassing), but rather making it more easily accessible. Make it more like a sunglasses caddy than a snap part like most of the car. Pull a latch, housing drops down, wipe with rubbing alcohol, replace.

The newer models have a seal all around the housing now

https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3538/tesla-updates-the-camera-housing-on-the-model-y-potential-off-gassing-fix

Tesla added a lower cost all-wheel drive Model Y to the lineup yesterday