I get what you are saying, but I stand behind my statement:
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A 22ft fadeaway shot is the worst shot in the NBA
Are there lower percentage shots? Absolutely. We've all seen the hail marys at the end or quarters or the weird triple team shots that have no chance.
If you want to say that a 90 foot quintuple teamed fadeaway hook shot has a lower expected value, you aren't going to get any argument from me.
Realistically, that shot will never be taken, and I can't think of any time a player ever shot a three when he only needed one point.
I only watched it in real time (no DVR or anything) so if he was a foot in from where I remembered, it that's fine. But regardless, he is ice cold from that spot - 2-20 for the playoffs - and it was a ridiculously poor shot selection.
After watching the 4th, I actually would rather see Bron drive into a triple team, because I have no doubt he would get bailed out on the foul. Because he is so strong, he is incredibly hard to strip once he picks up his dribble.
LeBron's realistic choices were:
1. Call a timeout and set up a play
2. Call a play from the top of the arc
3. Play hero ball and drive to the hoop and go for the win through score or foul
4. Drive and look for the open man with multiple teammates hot. (You don't have to use the entire shot clock since Bos doesn't have a timeout)
5. Call for a pick to get to your hot spot (Bron shoots better from the left than the right)
6. Play hero ball, go one on one and shoot a shot from a spot you aren't very good at.
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While it was a bad shot, do you honestly believe there couldn't have been a lower percentage 2 point shot taken?
Obviously if there are more people in his face, there would be a lower chance he would shoot it. But he went to the place he is the worst at shooting from, shot a lower percentage shot (fadeaway) with a man in his face (lowering the percentage even further. Over the course of the playoffs, he is hitting 10% there. That includes open looks, pick and pops, and contested shots. So what do you think his expected value from that shot would be? Maybe a 5% chance? Maybe less? So his expected value is .1. Maybe he has a 1:20 chance at making that. And yeah, add on layers of complexity, and it gets lower, but he wasn't faced with a double team or anything like that, so it is kinda moot. From the data we have, there is not a worse place for LeBron to shoot the ball in that situation than where he chose to shoot it.
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I've seen far worse end game two point shots than that one.
Durant's double-teamed three against LA would probably be a lower % shot for most players.
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It's hard to quantify that data, but I'm guessing driving into three defenders is lower percentage than the one Lebron took.
I just don't. I think if Lebron drives to the paint and he gets three defenders collapsing, he finds the open man. He is just too good not to and he has done that so many times. I think the outcome would be he gets fouled, he hits the open man , he muscles through for a bucket, he muscles through and misses another layup or he turns it over. And I bet his chance of turning it over in that situation is lower than his chance of clanking that 22' fadeaway with a hand in his face. But we will never know.
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Who cares if it's statistically impossible to calculate(which it isn't, by the way, using digital data), logic says it is.
I'd love to see the data, then.
