The current euphoria over Iran, Dow +1200 and WTI -20 I hope continues BUT the Muslim world ruled by religious nuts is not a formula for success. Steve Forbs' commentary is a realistic look at the situation.

Quote:

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The West has a bad habit of mistaking fanaticism for grievance and terror for "complexity." It is a perverse mindset that can lead to deadly outcomes.
Nowhere has that delusion been more dangerous than with Iran. For nearly half a century, polite opinion has insisted that the regime in Tehran can somehow be moderated, accommodated or reasoned into good behavior. Nonsense. Iran's rulers are not misunderstood pragmatists. They are revolutionary theocrats who have built their state on repression at home and terror abroad.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/steve-forbes-irans-nuclear-insanity-leaves-america-allies-room-blink

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We would do well to remember:

"The principle of sanctioning lying for the cause of Islam bears grave implications in matters relating to the spread of the religion of Islam in the West. Muslim activists employ deceptive tactics in their attempts to polish Islam's image and make it more attractive to prospective converts" Abdullh Al Araby, "Lying in Islam"

Whether we have won the skirmish or a battle we have not won the war. We will have to do it again, if only to limit their opportunity and means but not their mindset.

DannyDuberstein said:

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So we bomb them again. As ling as we keep the boot on them, fine by me. It's how we should have handled Saddam. Destroy capability, eventually kill him, their country eventually will or will not sort it out. Not interested in nation building. Am interested in destroying their capabilities.

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Well of course you are. We go in with the goal of no nukes. Trump vaguely talks about "the people rising up". If Iran becomes another failed state, oh well.

ttu_85 said:

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MelvinUdall said:

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Colonel Kurtz said:

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The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of each side's statements, no?

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Probably not, but the left taking Iran's word as gospel is laughable at best.

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This is what worries me. The left hates Trump any conservative president so much they dont even begin to vet for the truth. They'd side with the devil in a heart beat without a thought. Granted Trump could have handled things better especially on the communication side. But reading these post of leftest cheerleading for Iran without a thought or even an attempt to objectively evaluate what they read is extremely disturbing.

This fact tells me this nation is in terrible danger of its self. We are hopelessly divided and kidding ourselves. The fact is the left loathes us and we them more so than any external threat. Book it if this doesn't change we are screwed.

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This is what hundreds of billions spent on propaganda spent via all forms of media got us.

DannyDuberstein said:

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It is already a failed, dangerous state constantly attacking us with proxies.

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"Us"? What country are you in?

Nothing that hasn't already been discussed by other posters, but what have we achieved?

Permanent peace? doubtful
Opening the strait? We'll see if it works.
Regime change for the better? No.
Removing all the nuclear material and equipment? No
Setting back drone & missile manufacturing decades? No.

So my question is, what is the purpose of the ceasefire?

aggiedent said:

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Nothing that hasn't already been discussed by other posters, but what have we achieved?

Permanent peace? doubtful
Opening the strait? We'll see if it works.
Regime change for the better? No.
Removing all the nuclear material and equipment? No
Setting back drone & missile manufacturing decades? No.

So my question is, what is the purpose of the ceasefire?

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Yep I have said this a few times. US stated objectives have not been achieved. Iran stated objectives have not been achieved. Israel stated objectives have no been achieved.

It's a war "timeout".

Not hardly. Has OP read the 10 points offered by iran? Most of them are non starters. We will be right back where we were yesterday in two weeks, maybe sooner. Lots of BS being spread. I think we basically chickened out.

Has it been confirmed whether or not we agreed to a toll during this ceasefire?

Everybody who was screaming about the 25th Amendment yesterday is now very, very sad there wasn't a genocide...

Gigem314 said:

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It is truly incredible the mental gymnastics from some who go from "Trump is going to cause WWIII, he's blood-thirsty war criminal!" to "Trump got scared and backed down, massive win for Iran!" in the past 24 hours.

That tells me all I need to know about whether a person can look at the situation objectively.

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Read the 10 demands from iran. No way I stop based on those. Very very strange situation. Something going on we do not know, or we made a bad decision.

Science Denier said:

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Gordo14 said:

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fc2112 said:

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You do realize this is just a cease fire, not a final negotiated end of the war, right?

Sounds like you've been listening to too much MSM news.

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Negotiated end to the war will look like the ceasefire. We've taken the leverage at the negotiating table away and anchored the counterparty at the ceasefire terms. If, as widely reported, the terms are along the lines of Iran's 10 point peace plan, we gave Iran a lot of concessions. Logically, Iran had a lot of leverage leading to the ceasefire because they controlled the Strait of Hormuz and we didn't have a way to open it. So I would say it's likely that any ceasefire is more likely than not more in Iran's favor.

As many of you whine about people being critical of the Trump administration (the left is the enemy within rhetoric), I think it's more important that we can honestly analyze the situation. When the terms are formalized, is America better or worse off than February 27th? Is the regime in Iran better or worse off? This isn't a lack of respect for the military or TDS…. This is an important practice of the virtue of truth. As it stands now, I think it's unlikely we were able to dominate and dictate terms in this ceasefire, unless your basis is that tweets like the ones Trump put out are worth anything in negotiation. I suspect that if you were on the other side of those tweets you'd be more likely to think your opponent was weak and running out of options than anything else. If Iran really hands over their uranium no questions asked and reopens the strait with no conditions I would say this whole operation is a moderate win. At this time, I think believing that is more magical thinking and the actual terms will look more like Iran's 10 point plan, which would be an absolute failure.

When this is all done, we need to be able to reflect on whether this military adventurism was worth it honestly. If we keep trying to frame our own truth around our political ideology then our capacity to project power as a country will continue to deteriorate.

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LOL, It appears that the US is going to accomplish the following:

- Getting rtd of all weapons manufacturing from the #1 terror organization on the planet
- Totally destroying the #1 terror organization on the planet's Navy and Air Force
- Opening up the SOH and lowering oil price across the world
- Destroying Iran's the #1 terror organization on the planet's long range missile capabilities
- US military presence in the SOH to ensure the regions safety.

And, accomplished all of this against the biggest power in the region in just a few months with minimal casualties or financial cost.

That would make everyone with TDS (impeachment, 25th amendment and all the other incredibly dumb positions) look like total idiots. Even the most corrupt MSM outlets would have to give credit to Trump for that.
But, I do agree that we should wait until this is done before giving insane amounts of credit to Trump for this. But, when it is over and all this is accomplished, we should heap massive amounts of praise on Trump for doing this.

Where will you be when/if this is accomplished?

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The same place all of his other loser lib buddies will be......moving back to screaming about Trump being involved with Epstein in sex trafficking.

David_Puddy said:

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Science Denier said:

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Gordo14 said:

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fc2112 said:

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You do realize this is just a cease fire, not a final negotiated end of the war, right?

Sounds like you've been listening to too much MSM news.

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Negotiated end to the war will look like the ceasefire. We've taken the leverage at the negotiating table away and anchored the counterparty at the ceasefire terms. If, as widely reported, the terms are along the lines of Iran's 10 point peace plan, we gave Iran a lot of concessions. Logically, Iran had a lot of leverage leading to the ceasefire because they controlled the Strait of Hormuz and we didn't have a way to open it. So I would say it's likely that any ceasefire is more likely than not more in Iran's favor.

As many of you whine about people being critical of the Trump administration (the left is the enemy within rhetoric), I think it's more important that we can honestly analyze the situation. When the terms are formalized, is America better or worse off than February 27th? Is the regime in Iran better or worse off? This isn't a lack of respect for the military or TDS…. This is an important practice of the virtue of truth. As it stands now, I think it's unlikely we were able to dominate and dictate terms in this ceasefire, unless your basis is that tweets like the ones Trump put out are worth anything in negotiation. I suspect that if you were on the other side of those tweets you'd be more likely to think your opponent was weak and running out of options than anything else. If Iran really hands over their uranium no questions asked and reopens the strait with no conditions I would say this whole operation is a moderate win. At this time, I think believing that is more magical thinking and the actual terms will look more like Iran's 10 point plan, which would be an absolute failure.

When this is all done, we need to be able to reflect on whether this military adventurism was worth it honestly. If we keep trying to frame our own truth around our political ideology then our capacity to project power as a country will continue to deteriorate.

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LOL, It appears that the US is going to accomplish the following:

- Getting rtd of all weapons manufacturing from the #1 terror organization on the planet
- Totally destroying the #1 terror organization on the planet's Navy and Air Force
- Opening up the SOH and lowering oil price across the world
- Destroying Iran's the #1 terror organization on the planet's long range missile capabilities
- US military presence in the SOH to ensure the regions safety.

And, accomplished all of this against the biggest power in the region in just a few months with minimal casualties or financial cost.

That would make everyone with TDS (impeachment, 25th amendment and all the other incredibly dumb positions) look like total idiots. Even the most corrupt MSM outlets would have to give credit to Trump for that.
But, I do agree that we should wait until this is done before giving insane amounts of credit to Trump for this. But, when it is over and all this is accomplished, we should heap massive amounts of praise on Trump for doing this.

Where will you be when/if this is accomplished?

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The same place all of his other loser lib buddies will be......moving back to screaming about Trump being involved with Epstein in sex trafficking.

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I doubt they let go of the 25th Amendment narrative, though. I mean, he tweeted things they didn't like, so naturally he's lost his mind. That's a gold mine for them.

aggiedent said:

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Nothing that hasn't already been discussed by other posters, but what have we achieved?

Permanent peace? doubtful
Opening the strait? We'll see if it works.
Regime change for the better? No.
Removing all the nuclear material and equipment? No
Setting back drone & missile manufacturing decades? No.

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We set their nuclear program back decades and removed the worst elements of their regime, while fracturing their leadership/military and ability to wage war. Ignore that all you want, but those were major blows that will set them back.

Permanent peace, a change to a moderate regime, and a 100% guarantee that they never try to build up their nuclear program again are unrealistic expectations and were never the primary goal in doing what we did.

But of course the naysayers will use those moving goal posts as the standard for success or failure their minds...because they want to paint Trump as a failure no matter what happens here.

MagnumLoad said:

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Gigem314 said:

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It is truly incredible the mental gymnastics from some who go from "Trump is going to cause WWIII, he's blood-thirsty war criminal!" to "Trump got scared and backed down, massive win for Iran!" in the past 24 hours.

That tells me all I need to know about whether a person can look at the situation objectively.

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Read the 10 demands from iran. No way I stop based on those. Very very strange situation. Something going on we do not know, or we made a bad decision.

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You mean it's possible the message board warriors don't have all the information here? You don't say.

Gigem314 said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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Gigem314 said:

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It is truly incredible the mental gymnastics from some who go from "Trump is going to cause WWIII, he's blood-thirsty war criminal!" to "Trump got scared and backed down, massive win for Iran!" in the past 24 hours.

That tells me all I need to know about whether a person can look at the situation objectively.

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Read the 10 demands from iran. No way I stop based on those. Very very strange situation. Something going on we do not know, or we made a bad decision.

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You mean it's possible the message board warriors don't have all the information here? You don't say.

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No. I am saying what is being reported in various news outlets and put out by our administration is either a facade, or we made a very bad decision.

DannyDuberstein said:

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It is already a failed, dangerous state constantly attacking us with proxies. It's been a failed state for 50 years

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Which is why it's time to make sure all that has made it a failed state is removed so we can make sure the rest can make it a prosperous one again, a la, MIGA.

Gigem314 said:

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It is truly incredible the mental gymnastics from some who go from "Trump is going to cause WWIII, he's blood-thirsty war criminal!" to "Trump got scared and backed down, massive win for Iran!" in the past 24 hours.

That tells me all I need to know about whether a person can look at the situation objectively.

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More like:
"I'm going to blow up their entire civilization!!"

"WTF is wrong with you? Don't do that, it's evil."

"Well I've decided not to blast them to bits. I bet you feel stupid now, idiot!"

Colonel Kurtz said:

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Gigem314 said:

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It is truly incredible the mental gymnastics from some who go from "Trump is going to cause WWIII, he's blood-thirsty war criminal!" to "Trump got scared and backed down, massive win for Iran!" in the past 24 hours.

That tells me all I need to know about whether a person can look at the situation objectively.

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More like:
"I'm going to blow up their entire civilization!!"

"WTF is wrong with you? Don't do that, it's evil."

"Well I've decided not to blast them to bits. I bet you feel stupid now, idiot!"

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The gloating and grandstanding is alittle premature, IMO. It's a ceasefire.

Gigem314 said:

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aggiedent said:

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Nothing that hasn't already been discussed by other posters, but what have we achieved?

Permanent peace? doubtful
Opening the strait? We'll see if it works.
Regime change for the better? No.
Removing all the nuclear material and equipment? No
Setting back drone & missile manufacturing decades? No.

---

We set their nuclear program back decades and removed the worst elements of their regime, while fracturing their military and ability to wage war. Ignore that all you want, but those were major blows that will set them back.

Permanent peace, a change to a moderate regime, and a 100% guarantee that they never try to build up their nuclear program again are unrealistic expectations and were never the primary goal in doing what we did. But of course the naysayers will use those moving goal posts as a standard.

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Several government agencies have said that if the nuclear materials and equipment are just buried deep with bunkers whose access have been bombed, it would be just YEARS before it was dug out and the program restarted.

As for removing "the worst" elements of their regime………sorry I think that's naive. They have a limitless supply of worst elements.

And they can STILL manufacture (or import) drones and missiles. We certainly have fractured their military and probably communications. Hasn't stopped on site commanders from firing missiles at neighboring countries or shooting down our airplanes, has it?

Keyno said:

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Which countries strategic objectives have been met? What does 2 week ceasefire mean?

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It means Iran has been given 2 weeks to regroup and identify whatever leadership people they still have, collect them together in one location for high level discussions, susceptible to elimination. I.E, continued regime degradation.

flyrancher said:

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Keyno said:

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Which countries strategic objectives have been met? What does 2 week ceasefire mean?

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It means Iran has been given 2 weeks to regroup and identify whatever leadership people they still have, collect them together in one location for high level discussions, susceptible to elimination. I.E, continued regime degradation.

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HAHA roger that. Hardcore and very based. But no response to strategic objectives of any country involved?

MagnumLoad said:

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Gigem314 said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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Gigem314 said:

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It is truly incredible the mental gymnastics from some who go from "Trump is going to cause WWIII, he's blood-thirsty war criminal!" to "Trump got scared and backed down, massive win for Iran!" in the past 24 hours.

That tells me all I need to know about whether a person can look at the situation objectively.

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Read the 10 demands from iran. No way I stop based on those. Very very strange situation. Something going on we do not know, or we made a bad decision.

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You mean it's possible the message board warriors don't have all the information here? You don't say.

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No. I am saying what is being reported in various news outlets and put out by our administration is either a facade, or we made a very bad decision.

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Just because you've already decided that it's a failure because of your politics doesn't mean that's what actually happening. But no matter the outcome, you will consider it a bad decision.

Don't think that is what the poster was saying at all.

Quote:

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Several government agencies have said that if the nuclear materials and equipment are just buried deep with bunkers whose access have been bombed, it would be just YEARS before it was dug out and the program restarted.

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So we shouldn't have done anything and accepted the status quo that had been allowed to exist for years as they were building things up? Setting them back years is a victory. Had we continued standing by, the risk of them actually developing something only increased.

Quote:

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As for removing "the worst" elements of their regime………sorry I think that's naive. They have a limitless supply of worst elements.

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They have fewer than they did before. And now they know for a fact that they can be targeted at anytime. Removing the ones we could and destabilizing the regime without a single boot on the ground is a good thing. That's not being naive, that's being realistic. Being naive is assuming we could remove all of the bad leaders and establish a moderate govt for the Iranians in a short time period on our own without ground troops and without their help.

Quote:

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And they can STILL manufacture (or import) drones and missiles. We certainly have fractured their military and probably communications. Hasn't stopped on site commanders from firing missiles at neighboring countries or shooting down our airplanes, has it?

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In what fantasy world do you think it's possible to 100% stop them? It isn't. What we can do is make it as hard for them do it as possible, and let other surrounding countries see how little Iran cares for them, and get them more on our side of keeping them in check.

Khobar Towers massacre

No tears or handwringing from me on the total destruction of this Evil Empire....

Gigem314 said:

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Quote:

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Several government agencies have said that if the nuclear materials and equipment are just buried deep with bunkers whose access have been bombed, it would be just YEARS before it was dug out and the program restarted.

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So we shouldn't have done anything and accepted the status quo that had been allowed to exist for years as they were building things up? Setting them back years is a victory. Had we continued standing by, the risk of them actually developing something only increased.

Quote:

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As for removing "the worst" elements of their regime………sorry I think that's naive. They have a limitless supply of worst elements.

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They have fewer than they did before. And now they know for a fact that they can be targeted at anytime. Removing the ones we could and destabilizing the regime without a single boot on the ground is a good thing. That's not being naive, that's being realistic. Being naive is assuming we could remove all of the bad leaders and establish a moderate govt for the Iranians in a short time period on our own without ground troops and without their help.

Quote:

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And they can STILL manufacture (or import) drones and missiles. We certainly have fractured their military and probably communications. Hasn't stopped on site commanders from firing missiles at neighboring countries or shooting down our airplanes, has it?

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In what fantasy world do you think it's possible to 100% stop them? It isn't. What we can do is make it as hard for them do it as possible, and let other surrounding countries see how little Iran cares for them, and get them more on our side of keeping them in check.

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So you admit, if things end as they stand now, within a few years they could have their nuclear programs and military capability back on line………….. with a new stable of crazies heading the country, ie; no regime change.

Was it worth it? The cost…… the lost lives?
Or……… do we keep going? Put boots on the ground and retrieve the nuclear materials. Truly set them back decades.
Keep killing leaders until the government collapses and we truly get regime change.

All I'm saying is the ceasefire seems nothing more than a brief timeout. Both sides a chance to breathe and plot their next moves.

I don't think what we've accomplished was worth it, in a value driven analysis. Either finish the F ing job, or don't do it in the first place.


…..

What is happening here is what should have gone on in Afghanistan. Limited operation with fixed objectives. When completed, tell the *******s that if we see them doing it again, we'll rinse and repeat.

I don't get why this is hard for some to understand (I know it's not; but TDS has a blinding effect).

Let's really drive them ape-**** now...feed the troops Steak and Lobster!

japantiger said:

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What is happening here is what should have gone on in Afghanistan. Limited operation with fixed objectives. When completed, tell the *******s that if we see them doing it again, we'll rinse and repeat.

I don't get why this is hard for some to understand (I know it's not; but TDS has a blinding effect).

Let's really drive them ape-**** now...feed the troops Steak and Lobster!

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…..and Ham.

Quote:

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The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped, per Iran's Fars News Agency.

Iran says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and it is preparing potential responses.

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