PJYoung said:

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Iran has told mediators it will be limiting the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around 12 per day and impose tolls under the ceasefire, per WSJ.

This is a sharp reversal from last night's statements from President Trump claiming a "complete opening" of the Strait of Hormuz.

Today, just 4 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the fewest of any day in April so far.

The US is still pushing publicly for a free and open strait, but Iran is "not showing a willingness to loosen its grip."

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Seems we are "negotiating" with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. But, who is giving him the orders?

Iran being IRGC?
Iran being their president/government?

These two seem totally, 100% apart.

The best thing would be for Iran's government leadership to turn the army on the IRGC. Don't even know if that's possible. If the "government" is serious and wants to end terrorism, let them go after the IRGC. Otherwise, this Ghaibaf dude is nothing more than stalling.

Either open up the SOH today, or bombs are coming. Fully open. No crypto payments. Oh, and your little terror group that you fund just down the street is not part of this deal. They had their chance, just like you do now.

There's been some reports of bubbling hostility between thr two groups. Thats likely where this leads in the end

NormanEH said:

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USAROI

United States of America Republic of Israel.

Netanyahu playing Trump like a gd fiddle.

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I've never heard or seen USAROI before.

Is that something new that Trump waging war on Iran helped create?

The only acceptable end for this to be Victory

1. Nuclear material secured
2. Hormuz open

Both will require boots on the ground without NATO.

So the strait is open ?

AGHouston11 said:

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So the strait is open ?

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Depends on who is in charge.

Should it be open? Yes.

Does that mean it is risk free and that Iran isn't volatile within its own groups? No

Is it safe to assume if any ship in the strait from here forward is attacked by Iran, no matter whose it is, the bombing will resume?

northeastag said:

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I'm sure that this has already been said, but contrary to the thread's title, it is Trump who actually capitulated to Iran. The Strait is essentially closed without their permission to pass, and they are demanding a fee. The shelling has stopped, and they are still in possession of their nuclear material.

Wouldn't an independent observer look at that situation and conclude that Iran actually won? At least this round?

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If we just left right now, probably not. Even if that is the outcome, they have lost so much, it's hard to call them the winner. But certainly not totally defeated.

If we are still there and going to bomb them if they don't do as told, then nobody has won or lost yet.

There is no way we can just leave at this point, the surrounding allies would be left to defend themselves which would be a betrayal since our bases are on there turf, plus we have just kicked the hornet nests with dead mans son in charge, the markets would melt down with straits left to the mullahs, this has become the stickiest of all wickets.

What happened to "unconditional surrender"?

GAC06 said:

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What happened to "unconditional surrender"?

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Negotiations are ongoing.
Future bombjngs highly possible.

Burpelson said:

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There is no way we can just leave at this point, the surrounding allies would be left to defend themselves which would be a betrayal since our bases are on there turf, plus we have just kicked the hornet nests with dead mans son in charge, the markets would melt down with straits left to the mullahs, this has become the stickiest of all wickets.

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I think Trump is humoring Iran on letting them charge a toll for traffic through the SoH because it affects all of the other countries who decided not to try to help reopen the strait far more than it would affect us. It is his way of telling them "if you don't like it, then step up and do something about it yourselves."

re the straight: what if they pay the toll after they're through? or have someone hold the payment in escrow. wouldnt that create some internal pressure to quit jerking around and get ships moving? surely some has thought of this...

txags92 said:

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Burpelson said:

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There is no way we can just leave at this point, the surrounding allies would be left to defend themselves which would be a betrayal since our bases are on there turf, plus we have just kicked the hornet nests with dead mans son in charge, the markets would melt down with straits left to the mullahs, this has become the stickiest of all wickets.

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I think Trump is humoring Iran on letting them charge a toll for traffic through the SoH because it affects all of the other countries who decided not to try to help reopen the strait far more than it would affect us. It is his way of telling them "if you don't like it, then step up and do something about it yourselves."

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Trump is letting them charge a toll because he wants in on the action, as he stated yesterday.

GAC06 said:

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It's also his way of telling them: we can't really do anything about it either

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We could push a lot harder for it to be free in the negotiations too, but it is far from our top priority. Making SoH oil more expensive to transport helps American O&G more than it hurts us, so I am sure it is well down his list of priorities, especially given the cold shoulder Europe gave him. Also gives the other gulf states an incentive to work with the Israelis on a pipeline through Saudi Arabia to the Med.

Iran threatening to back out of the ceasefire. What exactly did they stop doing?

rononeill said:

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re the straight: what if they pay the toll after they're through? or have someone hold the payment in escrow. wouldnt that create some internal pressure to quit jerking around and get ships moving? surely some has thought of this...

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Which organization would be acceptable to escrow all of that money?

rononeill said:

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re the straight: what if they pay the toll after they're through? or have someone hold the payment in escrow. wouldnt that create some internal pressure to quit jerking around and get ships moving? surely some has thought of this...

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there is no escrow. The steps are they send an email letting them know they are going to pass through, send the money via crypto, inspectors enter and inspect the boat then they are allows to go through.

Still going to take some balls to pass through the Strait. I'd be nervous that I'd be the one with poor timing when **** goes downhill.

Quote:

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Just seven ships had passed through the strait in the past 24 hours versus about 140 normally, ship-tracking data showed.They included one oil products tanker and six dry bulk carriers, data from Kpler, Lloyd's List Intelligence and Signal Ocean showed.

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Quote:

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Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have told vessels to sail through Iranian waters around Larak Island to avoid the risk of naval mines in the usual lanes through the strait, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday.

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Quote:

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Vessels are to enter the strait north of Larak Island and exit just south of it until further notice in coordination with the IRGC's navy, Tasnim quoted the IRGC as saying.Risks persist for ships not authorised by Iran, particularly those affiliated with Israel and the U.S., British maritime security company Ambrey said in an advisory."Even shipping with apparent approval has been turned back in recent weeks mid-transit," it said.

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Quote:

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Iran will demand toll payments in cryptocurrency to retain control over Hormuz during the two-week ceasefire, the Financial Times newspaper quoted Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran's Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters' Union, as saying on Wednesday.

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https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/shipping-traffic-through-hormuz-virtual-standstill-despite-ceasefire-data-shows-2026-04-09/

No

AgDev01 said:

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txags92 said:

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Burpelson said:

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There is no way we can just leave at this point, the surrounding allies would be left to defend themselves which would be a betrayal since our bases are on there turf, plus we have just kicked the hornet nests with dead mans son in charge, the markets would melt down with straits left to the mullahs, this has become the stickiest of all wickets.

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I think Trump is humoring Iran on letting them charge a toll for traffic through the SoH because it affects all of the other countries who decided not to try to help reopen the strait far more than it would affect us. It is his way of telling them "if you don't like it, then step up and do something about it yourselves."

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Trump is letting them charge a toll because he wants in on the action, as he stated yesterday.

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This is so freaking based.

Europe and ME: Leave Iran Alone.

Iran: If you want us to leave the SoH alone, you are going to have to pay a toll.

Trump: Hey EU and ME, I'll leave them alone, but you are going to have to pay the US and Iran a toll to use the SoH. If you don't like that, bomb the **** out of Iran.

So why did B B start his largest bombing campaign yesterday in Lebanon ?

It is very possible
Bibi is part of the problem not part of the solution

northeastag said:

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I'm sure that this has already been said, but contrary to the thread's title, it is Trump who actually capitulated to Iran. The Strait is essentially closed without their permission to pass, and they are demanding a fee. The shelling has stopped, and they are still in possession of their nuclear material.

Wouldn't an independent observer look at that situation and conclude that Iran actually won? At least this round?

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It depends on how you are dividing up the teams. USA won. The West as a group lost.

Winners:
USA
* no more nuke threat for a long while,
* no more threat to US installations in the ME from Iranian missiles
* Oil from ME is now less competitive compared to US oil
* We get a slice of the toll for ships going through the SoH

Losers due to higher oil prices:
The rest of the Middle East
Europe
Asia

Undecided:
Israel

Pretty different approach to world peace than we have seen from the US in the past.

This also gives Iran a financial incentive not to F with us. We are the key to them being allowed to charge their SoH toll. If they piss us off too much, we will take that permission away.

America First Baby!!!

Tomorrow morning, every leader in Europe is going to complain how the USA is not living up to our defense obligations by participating in the SoH toll.

one of the after effects of Iran "winning"

A peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which would include the disarmament of Hezbollah and the establishment of formal ties between the two countries, would be an achievement of historic proportions.

The two countries have been formally—and, at times, actively—at war…

— Avi Mayer אבי מאיר (@AviMayer) April 9, 2026

Sq 17 said:

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It is very possible
Bibi is part of the problem not part of the solution

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sure its possible, but the people pushing that narrative have been wrong about literally every aspect of the conflict in the middle east with Iran the entirety of Trump's latest presidency.

why would you assume they suddenly know what they are talking about?

BusterAg said:

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This is so freaking based.

Europe and ME: Leave Iran Alone.

Iran: If you want us to leave the SoH alone, you are going to have to pay a toll.

Trump: Hey EU and ME, I'll leave them alone, but you are going to have to pay the US and Iran a toll to use the SoH. If you don't like that, bomb the **** out of Iran.

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Partnering with terrorists while Americans pay for the results with higher prices doesn't seem like a good thing to me.

1st comment under the tweet:

Quote:

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But Lebanon has agreed to disarm Hezbollah before. Even if this time, it's part of normalization, I don't think the LAF are capable even if they have the will. The only path forward would be a joint LAF-IDF operation to eliminate Hezbollah. Is there appetite for that?

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And if there is that would be amazing.

The US/NATO helping Ukraine to bleed Russia for four years and then the US unleashing Israel has 100% created a new dynamic in the Middle East - weakening Iran even before this war and causing Syria to fall.

PJYoung said:

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1st comment under the tweet:

Quote:

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But Lebanon has agreed to disarm Hezbollah before. Even if this time, it's part of normalization, I don't think the LAF are capable even if they have the will. The only path forward would be a joint LAF-IDF operation to eliminate Hezbollah. Is there appetite for that?

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And if there is that would be amazing.

The US/NATO helping Ukraine to bleed Russia for four years and then the US unleashing Israel has 100% created a new dynamic in the Middle East - weakening Iran even before this war and causing Syria to fall.

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Hezbollah is at a historically weak point right now. They have been decimated by multiple Israeli decapitation operations, they have lost the ability to be funded and resupplied by their sponsors in Iran, and they have lost their safe haven and resupply route in Syria (the new groups running Syria hate Hezbollah). The rest of Lebanon has wanted to be rid of them for a long time, so now is the opportune moment for them to take their shot.

Woods Ag said:

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All of Trumps advisors were to some degree against this.

Iran's ability to hold the straight doesn't take much. It's not a terribly difficult task. The mere threat of missiles, mines, drone, and pirate attacks is enough to keep insurers away. Iran doesn't need to go on the offensive. They just need to dig in and live and that alone affects the entire world and weakens us. The longer this goes on the more the rest of the world will turn on us.

This was a mishaps. Trump trusted Bibi instead of the head of the CIA and Rubio and now we're in a mess and I don't think there is an off ramp that allows us to save face to anyone other than the staunchest Trump supporter. What does he do? Bomb their power plants? He'll unite the entire Iranian populace along with many in the world screaming war crimes.

****ing utter disaster. A backhand to all of us that voted for him.

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So many lies and made up BS in this one post.

congrats!

hate to break it to ya buster- but Marco Rubio is more of a hardcore Zionist than Donald Trump is!

Marco with Bibi at the Jewish holiest site in Jerusalem: