Iran Has Capitulated to President Trump

91,383 Views | 815 Replies | Last: 26 days ago by Keyno
Rockdoc
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Gaw617 said:

Have people read the 10 point plan from Iran? They want uranium enrichment and to control the strait. Anyone saying that Trump won in anyway as no idea what they are talking about. Trump right now looks like a loser in this.

Did Trump sign that deal? Did he? He has his own list, about 15 points I believe. You guys take the cake.
2004FIGHTINTXAG
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Gaw617 said:

Have people read the 10 point plan from Iran? They want uranium enrichment and to control the strait. Anyone saying that Trump won in anyway as no idea what they are talking about. Trump right now looks like a loser in this.


Trump just crushed their entire military and killed off their entire leadership in weeks. He also exposed Iran when they decided to attack all their innocent neighbors. Not sure how he's the loser right now.

Let the deal play out and see what the final outcome is. Trump isn't going to agree to that 10 point plan as it is.
Dan Scott
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20 years we did regime change. It didn't work.

Now we kick your ass and force you to submit. This is the better way to go it looks like.
mjschiller
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TexAg82 - I agree with you. Finish the job NOW!!!

The mullah's will do nothing but lie. Delay to rearm and reposition. Iran has agents in our country.
Marvin J. Schiller
mjschiller
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Iranian leaders are satan's puppets.
Marvin J. Schiller
samurai_science
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mjschiller said:

TexAg82 - I agree with you. Finish the job NOW!!!

The mullah's will do nothing but lie. Delay to rearm and reposition. Iran has agents in our country.

Without a civil war you can never full win.....its the middle east. The people of Iran I guess like getting shot while protesting...
unmade bed
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You fellas better fall in line. Iran is good now. This completely new regime is about to experience a GOLDEN AGE with new income from Strait of Hormuz and sanctions lifted.

Quote:


A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they've had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We'll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just "hangin' around" in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
suburban cowboy
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does anyone understand why we couldn't simply take control over the SoH?
ErnestEndeavor
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Because they have a lot of drones and our interceptors are expensive. One of the big lessons of the war that we didn't move fast enough to learn from Ukraine/Russia is cheap antidrone detection and interception. A lot of startup tech companies are working on solutions but not quite ready for prime time.
Dan Scott
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40 days after the death of somebody there is a ceremony. It's coming up for Khameni. Maybe they do the big funeral now without getting bombed.
ErnestEndeavor
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sts7049
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suburban cowboy said:

does anyone understand why we couldn't simply take control over the SoH?

we could, but for whatever reason that plan was never implemented
Keyno
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sts7049 said:

suburban cowboy said:

does anyone understand why we couldn't simply take control over the SoH?

we could, but for whatever reason that plan was never implemented

Iran has way more missiles and drones than our government admits. And they can just fire them at all ships passing through the Strait.
sts7049
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yeah, and it's not just the tiny strait to protect. it's hundreds of miles of transit through the gulf.
LMCane
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A two-week ceasefire has now taken effect. The Strait of Hormuz will be opened, followed by Iranian-American talks in Islamabad by the end of the week. The war has paused temporarily but not ended yet, and the Iranian acceptance statement made that explicit by stating: "This does not mean the end of the war."

The military outcomes just before entering these talks are starkly clear. The United States and Israel destroyed Iran's navy, missile production capabilities, air defenses, and the infrastructure of its nuclear program. Iran's military power has become a mere fraction of what it was on February 28. The pilot rescue operation provided decisive visual proof of the extent of American and Israeli dominance over Iranian sovereignty.

Iran has one realistic but solitary political gain in its quiver. The regime has survived so far, has not formally surrendered, and its new representatives will arrive in Islamabad with a ten-point plan instead of as a defeated party dictated terms to. This framework is vital for the Iranian narrative, but it's a seat at the table bought at an exorbitantly high price.

Iran agreed to the ceasefire after exhausting its economic weapon. Its chokehold on the Strait was the only pressure card that actually moved markets and squeezed Trump. But conceding it in exchange for a two-week bombing halt is exactly what Tehran had tried to avoid for its five weeks.

Talk of a two-million-dollar transit fee per ship through the Strait, as mentioned in the Iranian plan, is just a propaganda clause, since no country, insurance company, or international body would accept it. It's a clause included only so the Revolutionary Guard can maintain an image of continued Iranian dominance over Hormuz, rather than portraying the Strait's opening as a retreat in the face of decisive American pressure.

Trump's administration of the war wasn't politically flawless. It issued deadline after deadline, threatened to destroy an "entire civilization," then extended the deadline, then threatened again. This approach gave Iran the chance to bolster its narrative. Had the pressure campaign been more disciplined, Washington would have reached this point weeks ago.

But this fumbling didn't alter the reality of the essential coordination. Netanyahu and Trump kept open lines of communication throughout, and both are entering the Islamabad talks convinced they hold enough remaining pressure cards to extract further concessions on their core conditionsand both are ready for another round if the talks fail to deliver the desired results.

Iran presents Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire as a gain wrested from Israel. The facts on the ground say exactly the opposite. Israel entered the war occupying five border points, and today it sits on nearly 30% of south Lebanon with massive population displacement and near-total absence of Hezbollah south of the Litani. The ceasefire doesn't obligate it to withdraw, nor to completely halt assassinations as happened previously. Israel will agree to a cessation of fighting in Lebanon because it achieved what it wanted on the ground and doesn't need an extra day to cement it. What Iran calls a gain is in truth a consolidation of the Israeli gain.

On March 10, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected this governing framework for the ceasefire decision by name: temporary ceasefire, then negotiations, then resumption of warand described it as a "trap." That stance held for just 28 days.

The regime hasn't changed its convictions; its options ran out, so it changed its language.
sts7049
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what substack have you copied that analysis from?
nortex97
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'Capitulated' regime to accelerate executions.
ts5641
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Our enemy is within. The dems are more of a danger than Iran. Can you imagine a party within the US criticizing every move Roosevelt and Truman made in WW2?
MouthBQ98
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Keyno said:

sts7049 said:

suburban cowboy said:

does anyone understand why we couldn't simply take control over the SoH?

we could, but for whatever reason that plan was never implemented

Iran has way more missiles and drones than our government admits. And they can just fire them at all ships passing through the Strait.


Is this conjecture or do you have access to Intel that most don't have? Middle launches have been steadily diminishing towards zero as they lose launchers and inventory and are forced to decide how to use the rapidly dwindling remaining arsenal. If they launch it all, they lose leverage, but if they hold some back and stop firing….they lose leverage. At some point they become an ineffective threat, because there are so few to either use effectively or threaten with
nortex97
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I suspect this 'ceasefire' is just to (a) clear traffic in the persian gulf, and (b) prevent China's economic immolation if they had been substantially cut back in 'shadow fleet' shipments from Iran for much longer.

Many of these crews were getting low on water etc.:

No one really wanted this to stop at this point, otherwise, including the arab allies/states that matter. I'm not thrilled at all about it, but just assume there are a lot of things going on under the surface that I am ignorant of.
Keyno
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MouthBQ98 said:

Keyno said:

sts7049 said:

suburban cowboy said:

does anyone understand why we couldn't simply take control over the SoH?

we could, but for whatever reason that plan was never implemented

Iran has way more missiles and drones than our government admits. And they can just fire them at all ships passing through the Strait.


Is this conjecture or do you have access to Intel that most don't have? Middle launches have been steadily diminishing towards zero as they lose launchers and inventory and are forced to decide how to use the rapidly dwindling remaining arsenal. If they launch it all, they lose leverage, but if they hold some back and stop firing….they lose leverage. At some point they become an ineffective threat, because there are so few to either use effectively or threaten with

Look at the state of affairs objectively (not supporting either side). The US has been bombing Iran and Trump has been issuing threats. Iran closed the Strait by way of missiles and drones and threats (and allegedly mines in the water). That was like a month ago by now. Since then, Trump issued threats to bomb infrastructure, to which Iran threatened to bomb Middle East oil and desalination (which would massively destabilize the region). Since then, we have been basically at an escalation stand still. The new "main" objective of US seems to be "Open the Strait" as Trump said with some profanity and threats on Easter.

What does this tell you?
FTA011
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2004FIGHTINTXAG said:

Gaw617 said:

Have people read the 10 point plan from Iran? They want uranium enrichment and to control the strait. Anyone saying that Trump won in anyway as no idea what they are talking about. Trump right now looks like a loser in this.


Trump just crushed their entire military and killed off their entire leadership in weeks. He also exposed Iran when they decided to attack all their innocent neighbors. Not sure how he's the loser right now.

Let the deal play out and see what the final outcome is. Trump isn't going to agree to that 10 point plan as it is.


Good lord do yalls knees hurt yet
MouthBQ98
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They undoubtedly have some missiles and drones left. My point is at some point they don't have enough left to mount a sustained credible threat. So they are forced to negotiate while they still do.
TxSquarebody
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Tells me you're full of it and can't back up your claims with facts.
Gilligan
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I think everyone needs to wait two weeks to see what comes out.

Claiming victory or failure right now is like pissing up a rope.

IMHO - we currently have adults in charge which is a massive improvement from the previous administration.

Let's wait and see what happens.
Keyno
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MouthBQ98 said:

They undoubtedly have some missiles and drones left. My point is at some point they don't have enough left to mount a sustained credible threat. So they are forced to negotiate while they still do.

Sustained credible threat? To who? Israel? They have never been a sustained credible threat to the US.
12th Man
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Keyno said:

MouthBQ98 said:

They undoubtedly have some missiles and drones left. My point is at some point they don't have enough left to mount a sustained credible threat. So they are forced to negotiate while they still do.

Sustained credible threat? To who? Israel? They have never been a sustained credible threat to the US.


FFS, since 1979, the Iranian mullahs have had American blood dripping from their fingertips.: 241 marines in Beirut; their funding of Hezbollah facilitated the murder of American hostages in Lebanon; virtually every IED in Iraq & Afghanistan had Iranian fimgerprints on it; and they were very clearly committed to developing AND employing a nuclear weapon.

At a bare minimum, we've forestalled the latter, but in the best case we've roundhoused the regime. Believe it or not, it's okay to be on Team America for a change.
Keyno
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12th Man said:

Keyno said:

MouthBQ98 said:

They undoubtedly have some missiles and drones left. My point is at some point they don't have enough left to mount a sustained credible threat. So they are forced to negotiate while they still do.

Sustained credible threat? To who? Israel? They have never been a sustained credible threat to the US.


FFS, since 1979, the Iranian mullahs have had American blood dripping from their fingertips.: 241 marines in Beirut; their funding of Hezbollah facilitated the murder of American hostages in Lebanon; virtually every IED in Iraq & Afghanistan had Iranian fimgerprints on it; and they were very clearly committed to developing AND employing a nuclear weapon.

At a bare minimum, we've forestalled the latter, but in the best case we've roundhoused the regime. Believe it or not, it's okay to be on Team America for a change.

Nvmd.
BMX Bandit
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Quote:

They have never been a sustained credible threat to the US


The biggest question regarding this is has to be:

Has this lie been repeated so much that they now believe it? Or do they still fully understand they are lying when they say this?
Keyno
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Gilligan said:

I think everyone needs to wait two weeks to see what comes out.

Claiming victory or failure right now is like pissing up a rope.

IMHO - we currently have adults in charge which is a massive improvement from the previous administration.

Let's wait and see what happens.

I think this is probably the correct take. We have extended the deadline for Iranian infrastructure and energy destruction for like 4 weeks now. A ceasefire is not a victory for either side. It is basically a "timeout" from the war.
Courtesy Flush
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Trump looks bad right now. He agreed to take his foot off the throat of the Iranians for what? There's no agreement about their nuclear ambitions, nothing about funding their proxies, nothing about the ballistic missile program, nothing about changing the regime away from the fundamentalists. All that was accomplished was they set back the Iranians military a few years but they'll be back more aggressive than ever and he will be viewed as a fool. I am not suggesting he had any great options at this point but if this is the best outcome he should have never went in there in the first place. All he did is ensure that Iran is not aggressive for the remainder of his term. The other thing is now there is a mechanism whereby Iran can charge a fee for every ship going through Hormuz. The Iranians never had that benefit before.
fc2112
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You do realize this is just a cease fire, not a final negotiated end of the war, right?

Sounds like you've been listening to too much MSM news.
Courtesy Flush
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I've not watched one second of MSM in the past 12 hours and probably longer if I really think about it. I stated my opinion on what has actually been agreed upon. You are basing your opinion on what you hope will happen in the future. I am sure we are aligned on the outcome, but as of right now it does not look good. The Chinese and Russians have already committed to immediately start rebuilding Iran's military capabilities.
Haleyscomet50
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Courtesy Flush said:

Trump looks bad right now. He agreed to take his foot off the throat of the Iranians for what? There's no agreement about their nuclear ambitions, nothing about funding their proxies, nothing about the ballistic missile program, nothing about changing the regime away from the fundamentalists. All that was accomplished was they set back the Iranians military a few years but they'll be back more aggressive than ever and he will be viewed as a fool. I am not suggesting he had any great options at this point but if this is the best outcome he should have never went in there in the first place. All he did is ensure that Iran is not aggressive for the remainder of his term. The other thing is now there is a mechanism whereby Iran can charge a fee for every ship going through Hormuz. The Iranians never had that benefit before.

The whole reason why we should never attacked in the first place. It was always going to be a loss for us. Was just made worse by Trumps rhetoric. So if we can't win it doesn't help us then why do it?

From the start we are labeled as jew haters but Isreal is the only country that wins this conflict. They get to show they have big brother that will go to war for them. True or not Bibi gets to show he controlled Trump. All Iran had to do was hold on and get the win. The world is about optics and we aren't stronger coming out of this thing we are weaker. Our allies have been attacked because of us. Strait been closed because of us. We carry the big stick but don't use it. Trump was never going to level the country you can't say stuff if your not going to act. Obama did the same with the Syrian red line. This is war it's not a business deal.

We never had a chance to win because we were never going full scale war so again all we did was emboldened our enemies. This war makes us weaker not stronger. Not even mentioning the political consequences to the republican party which is done. Trump built it and destroyed it.





Houston Lee
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