Iran Has Capitulated to President Trump

91,367 Views | 815 Replies | Last: 26 days ago by Keyno
Who?mikejones!
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TXAggie2011 said:

Who?mikejones! said:

I dunno but I doubt the world will stand for a toll fee. Those bordering nations, and other interested nations will build pipelines overtime to avoid anything Iran wants to contol.

Iran is walking a tight line, risking its total isolation on this front.


Most of the world will view a toll as explictly illegal under the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and have no appetite for it.

And I'll say again, I don't understand how one can pay the Iranians tolls without violating sanctions and terrorism funding rules.


Yep, they'll pay it temporarily, but it will force change and iran will ultimately suffer from it.
Dan Scott
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AG
$2M transit feet is about $1/Barrel.
Gigem314
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oldyeller said:

Gigem314 said:

TxAG#2011 said:

rca21978 said:

Have you read the 10 point proposal? Why even use this as a basis for negotiations?

- Pay reparations
- Allow Iran to enrich uranium
- Remove US troops from the region
- Allow Iran to control SOH

If we agree to these terms, why did we even start a war?


Trump got completely cooked, and deep fried. We spent hundreds of billions and Iran has significantly expanded its geopolitical power.

Iran's leadership being decimated and their military/resources taking major hits is the opposite of "significantly expanded" power.

If they end up with long-term control of the Strait, and get to charge $2 million per vessel to pass through (even after splitting the proceeds with Oman), that will be handing them "significantly expanded" power. It will also lead to prices at the pump staying elevated to cover the transit fees.

I expect the transit fees, and the continued enrichment to be major sticking points in the upcoming negotiations. They still believe they have a "right" to enrich uranium, and claim the "fee" is to cover reconstruction of the stuff we have destroyed.
That's a lot of assumption at this point.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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GasPasser97 said:

My guess is they get 2 weeks of oil shipped, then drop the hammer.

No way we have them on the mat and let them up without getting everything we want.

Those loons will do something stupid and give Trump all the cover he needs.


We dont have anyone on the mat, thats obvious to anyone who has any objectivity. If the short term toll thing is true while also having a cessation of bombs dropped on em so they can build new stockpiles then thats a net big win for Iran short term at least. Not sure how anyone can see it any other way.
Who?mikejones!
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In two weeks? With what are they going to build their new stockpiles?
5Amp
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Iran charging a fee will only further erode their standings in the Middle East.
Rockdoc
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

GasPasser97 said:

My guess is they get 2 weeks of oil shipped, then drop the hammer.

No way we have them on the mat and let them up without getting everything we want.

Those loons will do something stupid and give Trump all the cover he needs.


We dont have anyone on the mat, thats obvious to anyone who has any objectivity. If the short term toll thing is true while also having a cessation of bombs dropped on em so they can build new stockpiles then thats a net big win for Iran short term at least. Not sure how anyone can see it any other way.

I'm sure leftists see it that way.
Gigem314
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

GasPasser97 said:

My guess is they get 2 weeks of oil shipped, then drop the hammer.

No way we have them on the mat and let them up without getting everything we want.

Those loons will do something stupid and give Trump all the cover he needs.


We dont have anyone on the mat, thats obvious to anyone who has any objectivity. If the short term toll thing is true while also having a cessation of bombs dropped on em so they can build new stockpiles then thats a net big win for Iran short term at least. Not sure how anyone can see it any other way.
Nothing that has happened to Iran in the past several months is a "win" for them. They've been set back years. Anyone with an ounce of objectivity can see that.
infinity ag
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Making deals with Muslims is always fraught with problems. Firstly, they cannot be trusted as they claim they only obey Allah. Not the person they are dealing with. And in Islam, there is taqqiyya which means you can lie to a person "to save Islam". So they are okay lying to make fake deals to save their butts.

Foolish Westerners think everyone else thinks like the west and go into these deals and it all falls apart.

This will follow, just watch.
oldyeller
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T dizl televizl said:

T dizl televizl said:

oldyeller said:

Gigem314 said:

TxAG#2011 said:

rca21978 said:

Have you read the 10 point proposal? Why even use this as a basis for negotiations?

- Pay reparations
- Allow Iran to enrich uranium
- Remove US troops from the region
- Allow Iran to control SOH

If we agree to these terms, why did we even start a war?


Trump got completely cooked, and deep fried. We spent hundreds of billions and Iran has significantly expanded its geopolitical power.

Iran's leadership being decimated and their military/resources taking major hits is the opposite of "significantly expanded" power.

If they end up with long-term control of the Strait, and get to charge $2 million per vessel to pass through (even after splitting the proceeds with Oman), that will be handing them "significantly expanded" power. It will also lead to prices at the pump staying elevated to cover the transit fees.

I expect the transit fees, and the continued enrichment to be major sticking points in the upcoming negotiations. They still believe they have a "right" to enrich uranium, and claim the "fee" is to cover reconstruction of the stuff we have destroyed.

Hopefully someone smarter than me can answer this.

Are there any other straits or water passages in the world that are bordered by multiple countries, where a toll or passage fee is enacted to get through?

There are a handful of countries that have a boundary with the Persian Gulf that I think would have a very big problem with not being able to ship anything out on the water via the Strait of Hormuz without paying a fee to Iran/Oman.





https://omareconomics.substack.com/p/the-illogicality-of-charging-tolls

Found a substack who claims that there are

"six widely recognized non-circumventable natural chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz (Iran and Oman), Strait of Malacca (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore), Bab al-Mandab (Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea), Turkish Straits - Bosporus, the Sea of Marmara, and the Dardanelles (Turkey), Danish Straits - the Great Belt, Little Belt, and the Sound (Denmark and Sweden), and the Strait of Gibraltar (Spain, Morocco, and Gibraltar)."

and apparently none of these charge for passage and that has been established maritime law since WW2

There are charges for some bodies of water for extra services (ie navigating ice waters in Russia), but none just for transit.

Iran has been apparently saying they are charging for "protection" which is basically a mafia tactic offering protection from yourself for a fee.

Only bodies of water (According to the substack) that charge a fee are manmade canals.

Thanks for sharing that. If I understood what the author was getting at, the freedom of navigation through those straits might fall under the heading "customary international law," but that simply makes it a norm that is only binding so long as everyone abides by it, with no force beyond that. If Iran succeeds in setting a precedent in charging tolls, the norm may evolve.
Geminiv
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Thunderstruck xx said:

So what happens after two weeks?


Another 2 weeks
T dizl televizl
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oldyeller said:

T dizl televizl said:

T dizl televizl said:

oldyeller said:

Gigem314 said:

TxAG#2011 said:

rca21978 said:

Have you read the 10 point proposal? Why even use this as a basis for negotiations?

- Pay reparations
- Allow Iran to enrich uranium
- Remove US troops from the region
- Allow Iran to control SOH

If we agree to these terms, why did we even start a war?


Trump got completely cooked, and deep fried. We spent hundreds of billions and Iran has significantly expanded its geopolitical power.

Iran's leadership being decimated and their military/resources taking major hits is the opposite of "significantly expanded" power.

If they end up with long-term control of the Strait, and get to charge $2 million per vessel to pass through (even after splitting the proceeds with Oman), that will be handing them "significantly expanded" power. It will also lead to prices at the pump staying elevated to cover the transit fees.

I expect the transit fees, and the continued enrichment to be major sticking points in the upcoming negotiations. They still believe they have a "right" to enrich uranium, and claim the "fee" is to cover reconstruction of the stuff we have destroyed.

Hopefully someone smarter than me can answer this.

Are there any other straits or water passages in the world that are bordered by multiple countries, where a toll or passage fee is enacted to get through?

There are a handful of countries that have a boundary with the Persian Gulf that I think would have a very big problem with not being able to ship anything out on the water via the Strait of Hormuz without paying a fee to Iran/Oman.





https://omareconomics.substack.com/p/the-illogicality-of-charging-tolls

Found a substack who claims that there are

"six widely recognized non-circumventable natural chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz (Iran and Oman), Strait of Malacca (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore), Bab al-Mandab (Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea), Turkish Straits - Bosporus, the Sea of Marmara, and the Dardanelles (Turkey), Danish Straits - the Great Belt, Little Belt, and the Sound (Denmark and Sweden), and the Strait of Gibraltar (Spain, Morocco, and Gibraltar)."

and apparently none of these charge for passage and that has been established maritime law since WW2

There are charges for some bodies of water for extra services (ie navigating ice waters in Russia), but none just for transit.

Iran has been apparently saying they are charging for "protection" which is basically a mafia tactic offering protection from yourself for a fee.

Only bodies of water (According to the substack) that charge a fee are manmade canals.

Thanks for sharing that. If I understood what the author was getting at, the freedom of navigation through those straits might fall under the heading "customary international law," but that simply makes it a norm that is only binding so long as everyone abides by it, with no force beyond that. If Iran succeeds in setting a precedent in charging tolls, the norm may evolve.

Yeah I guess the logical next step there is how are these tolls enforced, and what happens if someone tries to circumvent payment.

Don't think the international community is going to stand for Iran taking pot shots at ships who don't pay a $2 million fee to pass through, but who knows.
Woods Ag
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infinity ag said:

Making deals with Muslims is always fraught with problems. Firstly, they cannot be trusted as they claim they only obey Allah. Not the person they are dealing with. And in Islam, there is taqqiyya which means you can lie to a person "to save Islam". So they are okay lying to make fake deals to save their butts.

Foolish Westerners think everyone else thinks like the west and go into these deals and it all falls apart.

This will follow, just watch.


Ive heard Jews have a similar belief.
Gigem314
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infinity ag said:

Making deals with Muslims is always fraught with problems. Firstly, they cannot be trusted as they claim they only obey Allah. Not the person they are dealing with. And in Islam, there is taqqiyya which means you can lie to a person "to save Islam". So they are okay lying to make fake deals to save their butts.

Foolish Westerners think everyone else thinks like the west and go into these deals and it all falls apart.

This will follow, just watch.
That's already happened for years as we sat by while the Iranian regime waged war on the U.S. and allies with no consequences. What we've seen over the past several months is the correction, which is messy. No matter the outcome at this point, Iran has been set back significantly. But I'm sure there will be more foolish western leaders who would rather wag their finger at the U.S. and say it's our fault while making it as easy as possible for Iran to build itself up again.
Keyno
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Geminiv said:

Thunderstruck xx said:

So what happens after two weeks?


Another 2 weeks

Basically. I think I've said it in other posts but this seems to be the amount of time which the American populace will accept and then forget about once it has expired. The obvious example is covid but we have seen it in this current Operation Epic Fury I think twice now.
Burpelson
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So happy that OIL WILL BE FLOWING thru the straight of hormuz, thank you DJT!!!
DannyDuberstein
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He's accomplished something that nearly 5 decades of Presidents have been unable to do.
infinity ag
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Gigem314 said:

infinity ag said:

Making deals with Muslims is always fraught with problems. Firstly, they cannot be trusted as they claim they only obey Allah. Not the person they are dealing with. And in Islam, there is taqqiyya which means you can lie to a person "to save Islam". So they are okay lying to make fake deals to save their butts.

Foolish Westerners think everyone else thinks like the west and go into these deals and it all falls apart.

This will follow, just watch.

That's already happened for years as we sat by while the Iranian regime waged war on the U.S. and allies with no consequences. What we've seen over the past several months is the correction, which is messy. No matter the outcome at this point, Iran has been set back significantly. But I'm sure there will be more foolish western leaders who would rather wag their finger at the U.S. and say it's our fault while making it as easy as possible for Iran to build itself up again.


Those will be EU leaders, who are woke and slaves of Islam. They will be the ones who open their gobs. Trump should just squeeze their bawls economically.
Who?mikejones!
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Man, Israel really took it in the shorts on this cease fire framework. Not much in there for them. Guess it wasn't Israel's war
Clavell
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Being curious about impact of the reported $2M per tanker, which don't expect us to agree to.

Standard Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) caries about 2M Barrels or 84M gallons

So $2M into 84M gallons or $0.024 / gallon

Obviously bigger impact on smaller tankers
Who?mikejones!
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Sounds like a tarrif. Im sure weve got a judge somewhere round here that can invalidate it
DeepETX_Aggie
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Retired FBI Agent
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You need to provide more than a link, add some context, or else staff is going to lock the thread.
https://tips.fbi.gov/
1-800-225-5324
Rockdoc
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DeepETX_Aggie said:



Don't forget about the war criminal thingy.
IIIHorn
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Ag with kids said:

Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

Don't rust Iran for 1 millisecond

He said he was going to VAPORIZE them, not OXIDIZE them...


Great catch!



( ...voice punctuated with a clap of distant thunder... )
fullback44
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Colonel Kurtz said:

Art of the deal baby



Can't we get about 5 D10s and cut a new path for the ships
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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AggieVictor10 said:

AgResearch said:

Iranians only lie...


Just like how polls were fake/rigged until Dear Leader said otherwise, as long as he says it, the cult will believe it.


Ah, throwing out the C word. Typical.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
t_J_e_C_x
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Concerned Moderate Ag
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$2mil a tanker that was free six weeks ago? How much is that in Obama pallets of cash? Just curious.
mjschiller
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Thunderstruckxx --1000% correct. Trump gave them 11 days and now another 14 days. Iran's islamist/jihadist leaders are liars. I hope Trump has not become a "paper tiger". He threatened Putin regarding Ukraine and China's leader and nothing happened when both broke their "promise".
Marvin J. Schiller
Rockdoc
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Newt Gingrich just said something even lefties should understand. If you're standing next to a rattlesnake, you don't have to wait for him to strike before you crush him. Now is the time to crush Iran. 10 or 20 years from now will be too late. You may never have another president with the resolve Trump has. Don't wait until we lose a major city then ask what happened. Iran won't stop trying to strike until we crush them.
mjschiller
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DannyDuberstein, what has Trump accomplished? Giving them more time to lie?
Marvin J. Schiller
Gaw617
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Have people read the 10 point plan from Iran? They want uranium enrichment and to control the strait. Anyone saying that Trump won in anyway as no idea what they are talking about. Trump right now looks like a loser in this.
TxAg82
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mjschiller said:

Thunderstruckxx --1000% correct. Trump gave them 11 days and now another 14 days. Iran's islamist/jihadist leaders are liars. I hope Trump has not become a "paper tiger". He threatened Putin regarding Ukraine and China's leader and nothing happened when both broke their "promise".


He just bombed 13,000 targets in Iran. Doesn't really seem like a paper tiger. The world spent 40 years walking on egg shells around the Islamic Republic because they might send their goons to bomb Israel or mess up the world oil supply or even start WW3. Iran has been proven to be the paper tiger. Israel and the US have closed their airspace at will twice in the past year. They will get slapped down many more times if necessary.

For the record...I favor finishing the job now so there isn't a next time.
Iraq2xVeteran
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The Iranian regime cannot be trusted to completely surrender all of their enriched uranium. Now is the time to demolish that regime.
 
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