Sorry for length. TLDR is still see a serious uphill battle for the DA.
Actual criminal information (charge) here:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23593079-alec-baldwin-criminal-informationSo nuts and bolts, the criminal information charges, in the alternative, two violations of the involuntary manslaughter statute. One violation in the commission of an unlawful act (negligent use of a deadly weapon) and the other in commission of a lawful act. This is consistent with what has been reported everywhere--nothing new there.
What is not well reported (and the DA has failed to mention for reasons only she can give) is it is not enough for the prosecution to prove negligence, a simple violation of the firearm use statute, or lack of "due caution and circumspection" to convict. Frankly the cases are much more specific and nuanced than the text of the statute. To get a conviction the prosecution will have to prove that Baldwin "acted with
willful disregard" for the safety of others. The jury instruction (UJI 14-231) and case law are quite specific and there is no exception for the "unlawful act" charge. So even if the misdemeanor violation can be found without any intent or based on simple or even gross negligence, the manslaughter charge still requires a finding of "willful disregard." In addition, although not in the jury instruction, there is clear case law stating that "the defendant must possess subjective knowledge 'of the danger or risk to others posed by his or her actions.'" The defense will note that this is required, and if the prosecution says otherwise to the jury and that is objected to, the objection would very likely be sustained (or create likely reversal on appeal if overruled, particularly if the prosecution mis-states the law in closing and the objection is preserved).
So in an odd way Baldwin being an idiot can work in his favor. It is not enough for him to have been an idiot. He must have had subjective knowledge. Still hard to see a conviction here when it is 100% undisputed that there is never supposed to be live ammunition on set. So how could he have subjective knowledge of a risk of shooting someone with a live round? It is not enough to show he should have been more careful--it must be shown--directly or through circumstantial evidence--that he knew of a risk of a live round in the chamber and proceeded anyway. Despite the absolute s***show on set, there actually isn't any evidence he had reason to believe there were live rounds on the set. Even the negligent discharges of blanks don't support an inference of knowledge of live ammo on set.
Frankly the probable cause conclusion reads much more like a civil negligence complaint than a manslaughter charge (from pages 11-12):
"BALDWIN's deviation from known standards, practice and protocol directly caused the fatal death of HUTCHINS. By not receiving the required training on firearms, not checking the firearm with the armorer, letting the armorer leave the firearm in the church without being present, deviating from the practice of only accepting the firearm from the armorer, not dealing 'with the safety complaints on set and/or making sure safety meetings were held, putting his finger on the trigger of a real firearm when a replica or rubber gun should have been used, pointing the firearm at HUTCHINS and SOUZA, and the overall handling of the firearm in a negligent manner, BALDWIN acted with willful disregard for the safety of others and in a. 'manner which endangered other people, specifically HUTCHENS and SOUZA. BALDWIN clearly should have known the danger of his actions which led to the death of HUTCHINS."
This is all tragic, but at the end of the day, especially with how this case gets tried, I think the DA has a serious uphill battle. Keep in mind that "the defendant is an arrogant jerk and an idiot" works sometimes, but usually not to send someone to prison for a felony. Also keep in mind that eventually the evidence will show Baldwin had no power to hire or fire or supervise props people or the armorer on set.
As to the talking heads in the meantime, I would listen carefully as to whether they are actually describing the right legal standard and what a jury will be told. Reasonable minds can differ, and a lot can happen before trial. But a lot of the talking heads are stopping at the text of the statute and treating this like a negligence case. It's not.