docb said:

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International laws? Yea that's going to stop them…Ha!

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The point is that attacking any vessel in international waters is an act of war on the respective country.

There is a crude market and a refined product market. Crude by itself has limited value until it is run through a refinery and turned into usable products like gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. Different crudes have different qualities, and each refinery evaluates which crude slate gives it the best yield of the products that are most in demand. They all have a refinery optimizer and economist that come up with the formulas.

The goal is to buy the right crude at the lowest delivered cost and convert it into the highest value product mix. To compare markets on an apples to apples basis, refiners/traders look at the netback price which is essentially the value of the product after subtracting freight, handling, and other delivery costs. Each market will have its own based off supply/demand fundamentals in their region. Because AP and EU refineries are playing with higher priced crude, their end product is also priced higher. We have cheaper input costs so that's the USGC feedstock advantage.

Enter the trader. Trader is looking for Arb opportunities and if the trader can deliver USGC product and ship to Europe at a profit he will. If the Arb gets bigger, more demand for exports so the refiner sells to trader at a higher price. If the arb closes, product stays domestic and domestic supply grows and prices fall. It's a connected word and a supply disruption other side of world has a huge impact on us.

The extra crude is only really helping the refiners margins. Your gas price is dependent on what the guy in Europe paying

What are you talking about, power production plants are most definitely a legitimate war target

Hence the quotes.

BusterAg said:

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docb said:

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International laws? Yea that's going to stop them…Ha!

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The point is that attacking any vessel in international waters is an act of war on the respective country.

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Thank you. It should not need an assist but it's appreciated at least by me.

BusterAg said:

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docb said:

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International laws? Yea that's going to stop them…Ha!

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The point is that attacking any vessel in international waters is an act of war on the respective country.

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I get it but I'm not surprised that their plan is to stir up a hornets nest for global energy. It's not like they are going to take on us or Israel head on with much success.

Dan Scott said:

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There is a crude market and a refined product market. Crude by itself has limited value until it is run through a refinery and turned into usable products like gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. Different crudes have different qualities, and each refinery evaluates which crude slate gives it the best yield of the products that are most in demand. They all have a refinery optimizer and economist that come up with the formulas.

The goal is to buy the right crude at the lowest delivered cost and convert it into the highest value product mix. To compare markets on an apples to apples basis, refiners/traders look at the netback price which is essentially the value of the product after subtracting freight, handling, and other delivery costs. Each market will have its own based off supply/demand fundamentals in their region. Because AP and EU refineries are playing with higher priced crude, their end product is also priced higher. We have cheaper input costs so that's the USGC feedstock advantage.

Enter the trader. Trader is looking for Arb opportunities and if the trader can deliver USGC product and ship to Europe at a profit he will. If the Arb gets bigger, more demand for exports so the refiner sells to trader at a higher price. If the arb closes, product stays domestic and domestic supply grows and prices fall. It's a connected word and a supply disruption other side of world has a huge impact on us.

The extra crude is only really helping the refiners margins. Your gas price is dependent on what the guy in Europe paying

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I really hope you understand crude is used more than gasoline and jet fuel. And that different crude is best for different products and by products. Gaming the "arb" market would not be a strong play right now. The international markets are anything but normal right now.

Through whatever trade magazine of ChatGPT you are using to guide your misguided theories.

And understand that many of the folks you are informing quite possible have vastly deeper experience than you one the subject.

BusterAg said:

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Dan Scott said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.

Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.

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Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.

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But, they can't raise the price to any more than the cost of refined products in Europe less the transportation costs, right? And if transportation costs are the major price driver here due to political risks, it puts a cap on how high refiners can raise their price, right?

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The market dictates the price and the price is inelastic up to a certain point. So assume Brent $150 and the cost of a French refiner for diesel is $6/gallon. The market is willing to pay $7 in France. In the USGC oil is $100 and our cost is $4/gallon. Trader buys from refiner for $4.50, it cost him $2 to ship, he makes $0.50 profit.

That example is a big margin for the trader so shipping companies and refiners get smarter and rise their price. Then imagine a supply disruption where EU refiners can't need demand. Market price rises so trader now buys at a higher price from the refiner. Demand for export increases to supply Europe which then means less supply in US and prices rises.

We'll also be cheaper because we are manufacturing it here, but we're not shielded from high prices because we are "energy independent"

Yes I'm trying to use a simple example to answer the gentlemen's main question and explain that increased crude supply and lower crude supply means higher refining margins, not necessarily cheaper gas prices if there is supply disruption on the other side of the world.

Crude is also in petrochemicals and everything else.

docb said:

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BusterAg said:

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docb said:

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International laws? Yea that's going to stop them…Ha!

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The point is that attacking any vessel in international waters is an act of war on the respective country.

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I get it but I'm not surprised that their plan is to stir up a hornets nest for global energy. It's not like they are going to take on us or Israel head on with much success.

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Iran is probably at BEST 30% functional right now.

The lob at Diego today seems very, very desperate. Embassies closing and evacuating, in major places, is not just cracks but deep fractures.

Israel starts its intense campaign tonight. I would suspect if not expect that will involve boots on the ground and massive drone ops. Israel is at a day they have planned for the past 50 years.

Sit tight. Trump has this.

You got it. Let us know how everything turns out.

Not sure why the attitude. Supply disruption other side of the world, US refiners going to print money.

Dan Scott said:

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We'll also be cheaper because we are manufacturing it here, but we're not shielded from high prices because we are "energy independent"

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your posts have been great, and i feel like this point bears emphasizing. global energy markets are highly interconnected, and any momentary disruptions create inefficiencies and arbitrage opportunities that are quickly exploited and then closed.

we were "energy independent" (net exporter) in 2022 when prices soared following the covid wind-down/russian war, but it didn't insulate us from price shocks for all the same reasons we're seeing today.

Dan Scott said:

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There is a crude market and a refined product market. Crude by itself has limited value until it is run through a refinery and turned into usable products like gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. Different crudes have different qualities, and each refinery evaluates which crude slate gives it the best yield of the products that are most in demand. They all have a refinery optimizer and economist that come up with the formulas.

The goal is to buy the right crude at the lowest delivered cost and convert it into the highest value product mix. To compare markets on an apples to apples basis, refiners/traders look at the netback price which is essentially the value of the product after subtracting freight, handling, and other delivery costs. Each market will have its own based off supply/demand fundamentals in their region. Because AP and EU refineries are playing with higher priced crude, their end product is also priced higher. We have cheaper input costs so that's the USGC feedstock advantage.

Enter the trader. Trader is looking for Arb opportunities and if the trader can deliver USGC product and ship to Europe at a profit he will. If the Arb gets bigger, more demand for exports so the refiner sells to trader at a higher price. If the arb closes, product stays domestic and domestic supply grows and prices fall. It's a connected word and a supply disruption other side of world has a huge impact on us.

The extra crude is only really helping the refiners margins. Your gas price is dependent on what the guy in Europe paying

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This is all helpful and I get all of this. Where I am uneducated is how much capacity the US has to refine sour crude compared to light sweet or Brent. I know that there is some switchover, just uneducated in how difficult it is and what the capacity limitations are.

Where you are losing me is that you are focused on shipping costs of crude but seem to be ignoring shipping costs for refined products. If, in general, transportation costs using ships goes up globally, that has to be a consideration in the decision for the refiner/trader to sell domestically or into Europe.

Again, I'm not saying that the supply and transportation prices in the eastern hemi have no impact on US gas prices. They obviously do. A lot. I can see that at the pump.

The entire discussion is whether or not the extreme transportation cost increases using ships are likely to make refined US product prices and WTI to be more correlated now as compared to 2025, and the correlation between refined US product prices and Brent to be less correlated now as compared to 2025, and whether or not a glut of sour crude in the Western hemisphere is likely to have an impact on those two correlations.

I'm still not buying the argument that taking Murduro out is going to have zero impact on the prices of refined products in the US. We have established that it is likely good for refiners. And, honestly, US refiners making more money is a good thing for the US all else held equal. Whether or not it has an impact on refined products in the US is where there is some question.

That is all a different consideration on whether or not taking out Murduro was a good political question. It no doubt puts additional political pressure on China.

Anyways, I appreciate the respectful back and forth, and you have made me think a little different about the issue, so thanks for the good conversation. I gotta run, but will check back in a few days to see if you had any other comments.

I think a lot of people on this thread are confusing crude prices and refined products prices. Buck on Clay and Buck kept messing this up on air last week.

The vast majority of gasoline and diesel in the U.S. is refined here, and uses crude produced in the U.S., Canada, or South America. Crude prices trade more globally than refined products prices, although there is international market for both.

I don't think many refined products go through the Strait of Hormuz - it is primarily crude. However, if refiners cannot find crude for their refinery, they need to cut back their production, which increases demand for refiners that can still find crude, and damage to refineries in the Middle East puts more pressure on refining capacity globally.

True refiner only U.S. companies have probably pushed their margins up some due to these factors, but the major reason for higher gas prices is higher crude prices. Also, many companies do refine and production (Exxon, Chevron, etc.) so their margins are up significantly on the crude side until this all settles down - likely in the next 2-4 weeks.

Apologies for perceived attitude or slight. I was more intending it as an exit until I have more time to look through your comments.

Some folks have a tendency to over generalize broad, complex topics to fit a narrative. I see your dive was a bit more coherent than that and as BusterAg said I am happy consider a different perspective.

That is all.

I think most Iranians are closer to this guy's position relative to the IRGC regime, as hilariously communicated on CNN of all places.

As with the vermin in Cuba, the IRGC has had a larger-than-acknowledged broadly impact on our violent left-wing politics/groups here:

Rapper Kosha Dillz walked up to a vigil for Ayatollah Khamenei. He looked for images of the tens of thousands of protesters Iran killed. Organizers tackled him, punched him in the head, and kicked him on the ground. He was arrested alongside his attacker. pic.twitter.com/l4pIuIQa9s

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) March 21, 2026

THREAD CONCLUSION:
You don't have to support the Trump administration's efforts in Iran to understand that we aren't fighting domestic enemies. This is a global war that has been waged for a long time on multiple fronts.

Congress didn't decide mass migration was a winning…

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) March 21, 2026

Hopefully that ends via this war. I am encouraged toward that goal/hope by some of Bessents comments about Treasury tracking their funds, including via recent transactions for oil. Much more at the thread, including Neville Roy Singham group connections. 'All enemies, foreign and domestic.'

It may ultimately get kinetic here at home to truly stop and reverse the damage done by liberal ideology taking over our schools, politics and boardrooms and using foreign dark money to juice MSM to complete the narrative. Look, we do it to other countries to good effect (sometimes with disastrous results).

As we know, Trump is the single greatest threat to their plans and the fact he has survived this long is amazing. But I believe we have pulled out of the death plummet and are on our way to leveling off and gaining altitude again. But that is also evidenced by their increasing ludicrous behavior and stances (mourning the killing of the supreme leader of Iran in our streets is not a protest or free speech, it is an act of insurrection and should be treated as such. Even worse if said protestor is not a US citizen.

AGHouston11 said:

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Well if true does the regime even care if their citizens have power?

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Uh, this regime doesn't care if its citizen have life. This is a question that answers itself. These clowns are capable of anything given all the crimes they have committed, and would have to answer for. Surrendering, for them, is a death sentence.

More commentary from Energy industry leaders 👇🏼

TotalEnergies CEO at China Economy Forum: ``You have 10 million barrels of oil per day which cannot exit the Arab Gulf, and we cannot find oil elsewhere in the planet. If the conflict lasts 3- 4 months, we can swallow it. If it's…

— Joumanna Nasr Bercetche (@JoumannaTV) March 22, 2026

TRM said:

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Well that outta show 'em!

I am 100% for hanging the American traitors who are working with globalists to undermine American sovereignty.

Nothing like waking up and realizing crazed terrorists can hit your country with a nuke to change your tune on a war. https://t.co/QF1aHABMLs

— unseen1 (@unseen1_unseen) March 21, 2026

So Europe balked at helping then Iran decided to shoot 2 missiles that could reach Diego Garcia. Israel says now Europe knows they could reach London. Now UK is thinking about joining the war? This reads like a movie script. Also before this attack I saw warning Iran would attack Diego and then it happened. People wonder why we question everything.

I didn't check the betting site but I should have looked. Will Iran bomb Diego Garcia? Could have won some money. The next time I see a early warning in the news I will check and we can all make some money.

Mostly white women in that graph. Shock.

nortex97 said:

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BREAKING: Saudi Arabia orders Iranian Embassy staff to leave the country within 24 hours.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 21, 2026

Good. Every respectable country needs to do this, frankly. Force the diplomats to seek refugee status or return to Tehran.

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Sq 17 said:

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And if Trump follow through with his threat to bomb power plants
The US will likely be committing a war crime

Nobody cares about upholding historical norms

Not that there is anything wrong with that just the way things are

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"Likely" a war crime is worth it if, in the end, we've freed an entire country from the tyrannical regime so they can start anew as a nation that is part of the free world (i.e., "The West").

I remain shocked and horrified at Iran's capacity to absorb the beating we have administered and to continue to wage war very effectively.

They have spent 47 years and untold billions of dollars turning themselves into a nearly impregnable fortress state.

I don't understand how those Iranians who want to oust the Mullahs will be able to do so when a significant minority wants repressive Islam and has all the weapons.

Very depressing.

flown-the-coop said:

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If you want me to answer a question, just ask.

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Ive got a question, which camp are you in?

1) Finish air strikes, close out, and claim victory like Midnight Hammmer.
2) Regime change to Western friendly, MIGA
3) I dont know, Ill decide when Trump decides.
4) Nevermind, I dont answer questions from those that "just ask".

There are very different risk/reward profiles and politcal fallout for 1-3. This thread should be a good faith debate to flesh all that out.

What's scary is that large swaths of Americans are starting to be convinced that opposing a foreign regime change war is a "TDS lib" position to get Trump to end the war prematurely. So many on right who were against such action abroad, are now flipping to cheerleading for following Israel down a path that is anything but "America First".

*edited to remove "follow Israel into regime change"...thats an unacceptable framing, at least now, in March 2026

Sq 17 said:

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And if Trump follow through with his threat to bomb power plants
The US will likely be committing a war crime

Nobody cares about upholding historical norms

Not that there is anything wrong with that just the way things are

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The war crime canard itt is irrelevant. Barry illegally assassinated american citizens abroad and no one said a word.

Trump has a tiger by the tail...we face higher oil prices...drone escalation...these are all valid topics...but the war crimes argument is a waste of time.

Barry did not "illegally assassinate" American citizens abroad. We were fighting a war against terrorists and he was a terrorist. He got all the process he was due.


As for power plants, I have yet to hear an explanation as to why that would be a "war crime". Seems to be the same old garbage from leftists and the ruhtahd right

OldArmy71 said:

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I remain shocked and horrified at Iran's capacity to absorb the beating we have administered and to continue to wage war very effectively.

They have spent 47 years and untold billions of dollars turning themselves into a nearly impregnable fortress state.

I don't understand how those Iranians who want to oust the Mullahs will be able to do so when a significant minority wants repressive Islam and has all the weapons.

Very depressing.

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Some of you have a really low bar for "wage war very effectively"

They can't defend their airspace. Their seapower is mostly eliminated. Strategic targets in their country have been hit at will. They have launched harassment fire via missiles and drones with almost zero military effect.

Iran isn't waging war. They are launching terrorist attacks with state weapons.

BMX Bandit said:

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Barry did not "illegally assassinate" American citizens abroad. We were fighting a war against terrorists and he was a terrorist. He got all the process he was due.


As for power plants, I have yet to hear an explanation as to why that would be a "war crime". Seems to be the same old garbage from leftists and the ruhtahd right

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Yes. They were terrorists and deserved to be taken out...but as a matter of law, it was illegal.

Face it, Barry broke the law and his followers selectively ignore it when they complain about anything illegal about Trump's execution of the war. just stop.