Casual Cynic said:

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I would say the Iranian state has collapsed economically. I don't know how they can possibly sustain the government with a currency that is essentially worthless.
Of course the IRGC can hold on for a long time because they have all the guns. It would seem like that without air strikes or something to tip the balance the IRGC could hang on to power. The problem is the IRGC will run out of money eventually; nobody's working, nobody is doing anything, the economy of Iran is at a stand still.

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The IRGC has moved tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars out of the country

according to our own Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last night!

the IRGC can live off that for years.

well said-

it is a lame excuse as we have 6-8 Destroyers and LCS in the Gulf already

not to mention HUNDREDS of USAF aircraft who can strike Iran

not to mention the entire Israeli Air Force.

Trump is @#$#@$ out!

have you ever attacked members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps with a knife?

while they have assault rifles.

brilliant!!

I would, if President, order an overwhelming first strike against Iranian aircraft and air defenses with the objective to substantially degrade their ability to control their airspace within 24-48 hours. I would continue with suppression of their air defenses and as soon as practicable start airlifting and dropping weapons and supplies for the proto-revolutionary forces to grab and start confronting Iranian security forces. Prior to initiating the air campaign I would insert small Special Forces units with the dual purpose of organizing Iranian resistance locally and decapitating local security force leadership.

This is the moment you go all in but short of total commitment of US ground forces into Iran. I'm totally OK with inciting and sustaining an Iranian civil war.

Neocons today

GW Bush did NOTHING against the Islamic Republic of Iran either.

I see you've brought up LCS a few times re: Iran, and while we have had a couple there, I am not sure why you believe they have VLS capability to add to significant strikes. These ships are capable of a handful of LUCAS launches but not much useful beyond that really.
https://www.twz.com/air/american-shahed-136-clone-fired-from-navy-littoral-combat-ship
Only a handful (2 or 3) of Freedom class LCS got Mk 70 VLS and those were with Standard missiles I think, not tomahawks. This is also why we are retiring some; the ships just are 'little crappy ships' and trying desperately to procure modified USCG frigates (instead of the Constellation class) which could serve such a functional role.

But maybe I am wrong, admittedly. I get confused about what Navy stuff is actually capable of, to be frank.

LMCane said:

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Trump looks exactly like the weak and feckless Barack Obama

even worse - because Trump literally told the protestors to come out and get murdered and that the USA would help them!

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Damn, that's true.

This will leave a mark.

I hope he follows through with his words. Lives are at stake.

Dan Scott said:

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Breaking news: Days before protests erupted in Iran in December, Israeli officials notified the Iranian leadership via Russia that they would not launch strikes against Iran if Israel were not attacked first. Iran responded that it would also refrain from an attack.…

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 14, 2026

Hmm. Not sure why we'd get involved if Israel already said they are not going to get involved. This isn't our fight.

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Directly? No, but it is most definitely entangled in our interest. China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran are closely knit in a variety of ways regarding military, strategic, and economic ties and dependencies such that manipulation of one or more of the smaller nations strategic or political path can have major effects on our ability to strategically affect the big players of China and Russia without having to engage them more directly. It is a balance of power and gaining favor with Iran and Venezuela calms both respective regions considerably, reducing future US commitments in each, and strategically puts China and Russia in a weaker position relative to us. As such, places like Iran and Venezuela are extremely important to our interests.

I believe he has to follow through at this point. I don't know what's going on but I just can't see a scenario where he can let things stand as they are.

I am confused with regard to Israel and Saudi Arabian posturing . What are they afraid of?

Casual Cynic said:

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I would say the Iranian state has collapsed economically. I don't know how they can possibly sustain the government with a currency that is essentially worthless.
Of course the IRGC can hold on for a long time because they have all the guns. It would seem like that without air strikes or something to tip the balance the IRGC could hang on to power. The problem is the IRGC will run out of money eventually; nobody's working, nobody is doing anything, the economy of Iran is at a stand still.

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It's certainly severely strained at the least! It's would be a good debate, but I'd argue the side that it's not collapsed until the government cant pay their soldiers and other government jobs (which there are many). The people not with the government must certainly feel like it has collapsed though. I just don't think it's met the textbook definition yet.

⚠️ Graphic content.

These are clear and irrefutable documents exposing the cowardly lies of Araghchi, the foreign minister of the Islamic Republic.
These are excerpts from videos showing Islamic Republic terrorists directly firing live ammunition at the people of Iran in the… pic.twitter.com/gXk8KzA8aa

— Amir Farshad EBRAHIMI (@Goftaniha) January 15, 2026

With a spool up yesterday, we got to watch where everyone in Iran would go if a real attack started. Invaluable intelligence for our military to know where Khomeinii and all of his Leadership Team would go to hide.

That's a fair point. I thought that info was probably already a known.

The ghost of Kermit Roosevelt devilishly chuckles at this mess.

Apparently we need his kind again

If the Qatari's really exercised some sort of veto power…well…

We can always move it to Bandar-Abbas pic.twitter.com/SqnLuswcH8

— Michael P Pregent (@MPPregent) January 14, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar led a “long, frantic, diplomatic last-minute effort” over the last few days to try and talk President Donald J. Trump out of an attack on Iran, fearing “grave blowbacks in the region,” a senior Saudi official tells the Agence France-Presse (AFP).

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 15, 2026

Then 100% chance China takes it

Yeah Qatar shouldn't get any veto power.

What are these potential grave blowbacks they are afraid of?

Honest question.

Doing the bidding of the terminally ill British empire has a lot to do with the past 40 years influence and position of both radical Islam and the mess that has become Iran.

This thread isn't the right place for that discussion, but the missteps in Iran started, IMO, long before Carter and the west is still suffering the effects. And the root cause was British greed and perfidity during the decline of empire.

Sure, British perfidy deserves plenty of regional (and global) blame for stupid lines being drawn as with Iraq, Kuwait, etc, but the proximate blame for Iran's situation today is 100 percent the historical hateful race communist that was Jimmy Carter.

Yes, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria (to say nothing of the 'Palestinian' situation) are all creations over time of what I would also term declining British empire aristocrats (of gradually lower IQ over the centuries). The current state of the UK is itself worth pausing over, imho.

After the Treaty of Paris between Britain and Persia in 1859 (that concluded the Persian-Anglo war) , the *British* drew up a border bw Iran and Afghanistan which they then modified throughout the years on behalf of the Afghan king multiple times.

In fact, it was also because… https://t.co/qPfzig0KUb pic.twitter.com/PSLix5FlKD

— DumWalaPaani (@Champ4gneP4ki) October 11, 2025

I would note that British interests, not American ones, were what was threatened by the 1953 'coup' (which I think is a fairly suspect term) in Iran in favor of the Shah.

The 1953 coup in Iran, known as Operation Ajax, was a pivotal event in the history of Iran and its relationship with the Western world.

This covert operation, orchestrated by the United States and the United Kingdom, successfully overthrew the democratically elected Prime… pic.twitter.com/hlAnWeGTz1

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) May 20, 2024

Again, the Arab oil oligarchies are clearly not happy at all at the prospect of Reza returning, and seem to have been able to convince Trump it is a scary prospect, which is my main concern/frustration right now.

I would assume that a U.S. friendly government in Iran would end sanctions, and Iran's oil would suddenly be in play. Considering oil prices are down right now, that would hurt the oil producers of the region. And this would be in addition to Venezuela's production being back in the market, too.

That's short sighted tho. Low oil prices would help spur economic growth and oil demand. The solution to low oil
Prices is … low oil prices.

We probably will have to, amicably, agree to disagree on the pivotal event/cause of the Iranian mess.

The oft overlooked result of the 53' coup, initially instigated by and then salvaged by the US/CIA (all due to Brit orchestration), was that it was the first instance of the western extending of credibility towards the Islamic radicals in the ME. To salvage the coup the CIA/Roosevelt enlisted the support of, via funding, cajoling, giving legitimacy to, and promising inclusion to the Iranian radicals. Prior to that coup the radical movement didn't have either the means nor the legitimacy that it quickly grew to have in Iran.

As we see now, the Shah in 53' was likely not a good solution for the most learned and secular society in the region at that time.

And you are 100% right, Arabs and true Persians have big issues that play a major part in how the US acts and reacts.

halfastros81 said:

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What are these potential grave blowbacks they are afraid of?

Honest question.

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for 80 years the Arabs particularly in the Gulf whine about:

"the end of the world if Israel or the USA do such and such an action"

it usually works out for them in getting what they want.

I have to agree with others that this is Bad Trump if he doesn't follow through and I generally do not want us involved at all over there. But, if you are going to talk **** like he's done about "coming to their rescue" then you better do something. All he will do by doing nothing is bolster the view by Iranians that we are full of *****

What I'm hoping here is that this is all classic Trump misdirection which he's done with pretty much every foreign intervention he's executed to date.

Also, I don't think it's realistic at all to assume Iran can morph straight into a democracy from where they are now. A constitutional monarchy is likely the more practical first step and then you ease into a republic later on. Full on democracy is stupid, anyway, especially for low IQ populations.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar led a “long, frantic, diplomatic last-minute effort” over the last few days to try and talk President Donald J. Trump out of an attack on Iran, fearing “grave blowbacks in the region,” a senior Saudi official tells the Agence France-Presse (AFP).

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 15, 2026

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Now I understand the need for the carrier battle group. Should have been there in the first place for flexibility.

The people are miserable with decades of sanctions and hate Islam.

US should say that it will end ALL sanctions if the people of Iran overthrow the mullahs and have a modern secular government.

YouBet said:

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I have to agree with others that this is Bad Trump if he doesn't follow through and I generally do not want us involved at all over there. But, if you are going to talk **** like he's done about "coming to their rescue" then you better do something. All he will do by doing nothing is bolster the view by Iranians that we are full of *****

What I'm hoping here is that this is all classic Trump misdirection which he's done with pretty much every foreign intervention he's executed to date.

Also, I don't think it's realistic at all to assume Iran can morph straight into a democracy from where they are now. A constitutional monarchy is likely the more practical first step and then you ease into a republic later on. Full on democracy is stupid, anyway, especially for low IQ populations.

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Iranians are not low IQ. They are an ancient civilization that is currently enslaved by Islam. Once the shackles are removed and they get over the PTSD and back to their ancient religions of Zoroastrianism and other local faiths, they will be as modern and advanced as you can imagine.

Sort of. Most of the West is dedicated to moving away from petroleum in one way or another. I mean, late '60s muscle cars aren't coming back. There's a growing push against plastic. Petroleum and its products aren't going away any time soon, but I don't think low oil prices will suddenly spur demand to compensate for the lower prices, especially in Europe.

infinity ag said:

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YouBet said:

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I have to agree with others that this is Bad Trump if he doesn't follow through and I generally do not want us involved at all over there. But, if you are going to talk **** like he's done about "coming to their rescue" then you better do something. All he will do by doing nothing is bolster the view by Iranians that we are full of *****

What I'm hoping here is that this is all classic Trump misdirection which he's done with pretty much every foreign intervention he's executed to date.

Also, I don't think it's realistic at all to assume Iran can morph straight into a democracy from where they are now. A constitutional monarchy is likely the more practical first step and then you ease into a republic later on. Full on democracy is stupid, anyway, especially for low IQ populations.

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Iranians are not low IQ. They are an ancient civilization that is currently enslaved by Islam. Once the shackles are removed and they get over the PTSD and back to their ancient religions of Zoroastrianism and other local faiths, they will be as modern and advanced as you can imagine.

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Yep they are not low IQ. Never have been. That is the boogie man mentality we have been taught. Civilization started in this area along with science and astronomy. Why not get an area like that back and not keep them oppressed?

JB!98 said:

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Now I understand the need for the carrier battle group. Should have been there in the first place for flexibility.

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This is bizarre. Where are all our carriers? Why didn't they reposition one weeks ago? Don't we nearly always have one in the ME?