MouthBQ98 said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Breaking news: Days before protests erupted in Iran in December, Israeli officials notified the Iranian leadership via Russia that they would not launch strikes against Iran if Israel were not attacked first. Iran responded that it would also refrain from an attack.…

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 14, 2026

Hmm. Not sure why we'd get involved if Israel already said they are not going to get involved. This isn't our fight.

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Directly? No, but it is most definitely entangled in our interest. China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran are closely knit in a variety of ways regarding military, strategic, and economic ties and dependencies such that manipulation of one or more of the smaller nations strategic or political path can have major effects on our ability to strategically affect the big players of China and Russia without having to engage them more directly. It is a balance of power and gaining favor with Iran and Venezuela calms both respective regions considerably, reducing future US commitments in each, and strategically puts China and Russia in a weaker position relative to us. As such, places like Iran and Venezuela are extremely important to our interests.

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Good analysis.

Perfidity, so hot right now.

The word or the action?

infinity ag said:

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YouBet said:

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I have to agree with others that this is Bad Trump if he doesn't follow through and I generally do not want us involved at all over there. But, if you are going to talk **** like he's done about "coming to their rescue" then you better do something. All he will do by doing nothing is bolster the view by Iranians that we are full of *****

What I'm hoping here is that this is all classic Trump misdirection which he's done with pretty much every foreign intervention he's executed to date.

Also, I don't think it's realistic at all to assume Iran can morph straight into a democracy from where they are now. A constitutional monarchy is likely the more practical first step and then you ease into a republic later on. Full on democracy is stupid, anyway, especially for low IQ populations.

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Iranians are not low IQ. They are an ancient civilization that is currently enslaved by Islam. Once the shackles are removed and they get over the PTSD and back to their ancient religions of Zoroastrianism and other local faiths, they will be as modern and advanced as you can imagine.

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I realize this and knew that comment would get pushback. Agree they aren't like their fellow ME countries.

But, I still don't think they can handle democracy immediately.

YouBet said:

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infinity ag said:

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YouBet said:

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I have to agree with others that this is Bad Trump if he doesn't follow through and I generally do not want us involved at all over there. But, if you are going to talk **** like he's done about "coming to their rescue" then you better do something. All he will do by doing nothing is bolster the view by Iranians that we are full of *****

What I'm hoping here is that this is all classic Trump misdirection which he's done with pretty much every foreign intervention he's executed to date.

Also, I don't think it's realistic at all to assume Iran can morph straight into a democracy from where they are now. A constitutional monarchy is likely the more practical first step and then you ease into a republic later on. Full on democracy is stupid, anyway, especially for low IQ populations.

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Iranians are not low IQ. They are an ancient civilization that is currently enslaved by Islam. Once the shackles are removed and they get over the PTSD and back to their ancient religions of Zoroastrianism and other local faiths, they will be as modern and advanced as you can imagine.

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I realize this and knew that comment would get pushback. Agree they aren't like their fellow ME countries.

But, I still don't think they can handle democracy immediately.

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100% agree with you. Not right now.
However, the positive is they are different from the run of the mill Muslims who cannot handle democracy. Examples are Pakistan and Bangladesh and of course the Arab countries. The Iranians still respect and love and recognize their history and don't pretend to be invaders or Arabs themselves.

Malibu said:

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BBRex said:

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Malibu said:

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That assumes that the Crown Prince comes to power, can consolidate and reform both civil society and existing bureaucracy, and can actually hold power legitimately. If he is weak or ineffective, he might be the Shah of Tehran and the rest of the country is held by various despots (think Mexico and cartels as an approximate model here), or might be deposed and power consolidated by a man of will and action that is worse than the current government. There is no guarantee that because the people want change and reform they actually get the stable version that and the oil flows.

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I'd be interested to know what your definition of "worse government" would be. Worse than killing thousands of your own people, sponsoring world terrorism, and backing other terrible world governments?

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ISIS Shias with nukes.

• Won't happen. Either the US under Republican control will destroy this or the Israeli forces do.

That would be worse. Again, the idea that the protestors win, the Shah comes back, and there is peace, freedom, and democracy in Iran is a wonderful narrative. That narrative will make contact with the real world, which is that regime changes create power vacuums, and legitimacy is usually that whomever controls the guns is the legitimate ruler, not who people want.

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Dan Scott said:

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Breaking news: Days before protests erupted in Iran in December, Israeli officials notified the Iranian leadership via Russia that they would not launch strikes against Iran if Israel were not attacked first. Iran responded that it would also refrain from an attack.…

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 14, 2026

Hmm. Not sure why we'd get involved if Israel already said they are not going to get involved. This isn't our fight.

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Islamic terrorist groups funding the violent protests in our country makes it our fight.

President Donald J. Trump has informed Iran that he did not intend to attack and also asked Tehran to exercise restraint, according to Iran’s Envoy to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam, as reported by the Pakistani English-language media outlet Dawn.

Moghadam disclosed that he… pic.twitter.com/njIA3ccfrs

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 15, 2026

Oil is a worldwide market and China in particular needs it. As far as the West getting away from it the peak demand for electric cars seems to have come and gone. The demise of the petroleum industry has been predicted many times for many decades and it hasn't happened. Eventually it will but it's not going to be in my lifetime and maybe not in anyone posting here's lifetime. Europe sorely needs nat gas as well for heating and power, and the Russians have proven to be a supplier with many nasty strings attached. Power needs for AI and data centers worldwide are driving the need for more energy , not less. Eventually nuclear will prevail as a primary energy source but not for a good while imo.

Tailgate88 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Now I understand the need for the carrier battle group. Should have been there in the first place for flexibility.

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This is bizarre. Where are all our carriers? Why didn't they reposition one weeks ago? Don't we nearly always have one in the ME?

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We only have 11 and at any given time half of them are in some level of refurb or workups. That leaves 5-6 available and there is a lot of ground to cover. That should not have, however, precluded us moving a carrier group when the protests started.

Letting them off the hook. Should've taken out Khamenei when we had the chance. I think Isreal wanted to but Trump stopped them.

Keep in mind a huge amount of stuff is made with oil that isn't energy related. All sorts of chemicals and product precursors and components.

had a chance to take out the regime and should have taken it..... he told their people "keep fighting help was on the way!".... he risks losing credibility in that region, with the Iranian people and bolstering the Mullahs....

aginresearch said:

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I would, if President, order an overwhelming first strike against Iranian aircraft and air defenses with the objective to substantially degrade their ability to control their airspace within 24-48 hours.

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Didn't Israel already do this last year?

JB!98 said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Now I understand the need for the carrier battle group. Should have been there in the first place for flexibility.

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This is bizarre. Where are all our carriers? Why didn't they reposition one weeks ago? Don't we nearly always have one in the ME?

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We only have 11 and at any given time half of them are in some level of refurb or workups. That leaves 5-6 available and there is a lot of ground to cover. That should not have, however, precluded us moving a carrier group when the protests started.

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ChatGPT to the rescue. And according to USNI News the closest ones are in the South China Sea, The Roosevelt and Lincoln. Of course none of this is official...



1. USS Nimitz (CVN-68)

• Status: In port at Naval Base Kitsap Bremerton, Washington preparing for decommissioning; final active deployment recently completed.
• Notes: This is the Navy's oldest active carrier and is transitioning to Norfolk, Virginia for inactivation/decommissioning in 2026.

2. USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)

• Status: Typically deployed or in transit; previous deployments included the Red Sea and Middle East under CENTCOM.
• Current precise location: Not publicly disclosed, but likely at sea or between homeport cycles (strike group operations).
• Public tracking does not show an exact current spot, but category is "deployed/operational."

3. USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70)

• Status: In home port (San Diego, CA) following its most recent extended deployment.
• Notes: Undergoing maintenance and preparing for future operations; not currently forward deployed.

4. USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)

• Status: Deployed at sea, operating in the Indo-Pacific region (e.g., South China Sea / Pacific waters) as of the latest Navy tracking.
• Notes: Routine deployment operations for regional deterrence and exercises.

5. USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72)

• Status: Deployed in the South China Sea / Indo-Pacific (Carrier Strike Group 3).
• Notes: As of Jan. 12, 2026, USNI News reported Lincoln underway in the South China Sea.

6. USS George Washington (CVN-73)

• Status: Forward-deployed carrier at Yokosuka, Japan supporting the U.S. 7th Fleet area.
• Notes: Traditionally remains in the Western Pacific for extended mission presence.

7. USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74)

• Status: Likely in maintenance overhaul (RCOH) or preparing to return to service following extended refueling/refit.
• Exact current position isn't routinely published when carriers are in yards.
• Notes: Stennis has been in a long Refueling Complex Overhaul in recent years scheduled to conclude soon.

8. USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75)

• Status: Likely returning from deployment or between deployments; recent operations chronically placed this carrier in the Middle East/Red Sea region as part of CENTCOM tasking.
• Latest open-source position not published, but operations in late 2025 were ongoing before rotation.

9. USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77)

• Status: In maintenance/shipyard availability as of the latest fleet data; possibly in port at Norfolk, Virginia or another U.S. yard.
• Notes: Routine extended maintenance can last many months.

10. USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)

• Status: Operating in the Caribbean / U.S. Southern Command AOR (Fourth Fleet) and transiting into that region after moving out of the Mediterranean/Atlantic.
• Notes: This movement supports SOUTHCOM missions (counter-narcotics and security operations) as of late 2025 into 2026.

11. USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79)

• Status: Construction complete but undergoing post-delivery tests and trials (not yet fully operationally deployed yet as a strike group).
• Notes: Because CVN-79's operational certification is ongoing, it may still be transiting to homeport or working up before initial major deployment.
• Exact location varies with trials.

Tailgate88 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Now I understand the need for the carrier battle group. Should have been there in the first place for flexibility.

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This is bizarre. Where are all our carriers? Why didn't they reposition one weeks ago? Don't we nearly always have one in the ME?

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We only have 11 and at any given time half of them are in some level of refurb or workups. That leaves 5-6 available and there is a lot of ground to cover. That should not have, however, precluded us moving a carrier group when the protests started.

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ChatGPT to the rescue. And according to USNI News the closest ones are in the South China Sea, The Roosevelt and Lincoln. Of course none of this is official...




9. USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77)

• Status: In maintenance/shipyard availability as of the latest fleet data; possibly in port at Norfolk, Virginia or another U.S. yard.
• Notes: Routine extended maintenance can last many months.

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Bush left Norfolk earlier this week for the Mediterranean.

ChatGPT forgot about the Ronald Reagan (it's not active, under maintenance)

You make a good point . I don't know that it's an industry driver tho. More like a byproduct imo.

MGS said:

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ChatGPT forgot about the Ronald Reagan (it's not active, under maintenance)

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Well at least it apologized when I asked.

Good catch no, the USS Ronald Reagan was not forgotten, but you're absolutely right to call it out
It should have been explicitly included, and that omission is on me.

USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76)

• Class: Nimitz-class nuclear aircraft carrier
• Commissioned: July 12, 2003
• Homeport: Yokosuka, Japan (for most of its service life)
• Role: Forward-deployed carrier for the U.S. 7th Fleet (Western Pacific)

Current status (high level)

• The Ronald Reagan has been transitioning out of its long-term forward-deployed role in Japan.
• The USS George Washington (CVN-73) is returning to Yokosuka to replace it after completing refueling/overhaul.
• As a result, Ronald Reagan is:
  
  • Either in transit back to the U.S. or
  • Entering a major maintenance period following years of heavy operational tempo

This kind of swap is standard practice for forward-deployed carriers.

AtticusMatlock said:

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President Donald J. Trump has informed Iran that he did not intend to attack and also asked Tehran to exercise restraint, according to Iran’s Envoy to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam, as reported by the Pakistani English-language media outlet Dawn.

Moghadam disclosed that he… pic.twitter.com/njIA3ccfrs

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 15, 2026

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Lindsey Graham is not going to be happy about this.

Your point is well taken that the Arab whining often seems to prevail but I think Trump has to look past that and understand that even a neutral Iran much less a friendly Iran would be so much better than the status quo for the whole world and particularly the region.

AtticusMatlock said:

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President Donald J. Trump has informed Iran that he did not intend to attack and also asked Tehran to exercise restraint, according to Iran’s Envoy to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam, as reported by the Pakistani English-language media outlet Dawn.

Moghadam disclosed that he… pic.twitter.com/njIA3ccfrs

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 15, 2026

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The comments, which when I took a dive into the user's making them, and no, they aren't left wing by any means, weren't kind to say the least.

The one pulling off Trump's "mask" to reveal Obama kind of hit with Obama and all of his red lines.

Trump needs to just freaking do it.

Apparently, #France, #Italy and #Spain are blocking the #IRGC listing as a terror organisation. This is unacceptable given the brutality of recent days. I urge these governments to reconsider this stance fast and will reach out to them myself.https://t.co/nQxYWw9rlu

— Hannah Neumann (@HNeumannMEP) January 15, 2026

Rex Racer said:

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aginresearch said:

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I would, if President, order an overwhelming first strike against Iranian aircraft and air defenses with the objective to substantially degrade their ability to control their airspace within 24-48 hours.

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Didn't Israel already do this last year?

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Yes in June and it was incredibly successful.

The IAF was also about to blast Khameini into hell and Trump has publicly bragged he stopped that operation.

seriously WTF is Trump thinking now?!?!

If nothing changes in Iran and there is no further action by Trump, this is Trump's biggest screw up to date. How many people died, after counting on Trump, after he opened his mouth to say help is on the way? Trump has alot of blood on his hands.

For what we spend on the USN (roughly $300 billion a year) it's fairly stupefying we only have 3 CVN's available globally.

Rogoway has made the point today that more forces are needed, which is a point I am not sure is really true, but certainly worth taking into account…from my bleacher seats, although I think the importance of carrier strike groups is over-rated.

There are not enough assets in the Middle East to execute a sustained campaign that will accomplish anything of huge consequence in Iran. This was never a question.

Yes, the limited U.S. tactical airpower in the region can do some damage, but you need a complete, fully packaged…

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) January 15, 2026

Taking out some targets using cruise missiles/standoff weapons etc. is certainly doable, but what do you achieve and at what potential cost from a retaliation? What does it actually achieve in real terms on the ground?

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) January 15, 2026

I dunno, I am just shaking my head, but admit I did the same thing over the delayed 'action' in Venezuela.

When the left defunds the military for 12 of the last 17 years this is what you are left with.

Sort of like defunding the police. You are left weak and exposed.

Trump is fixing it.

I love being in Virginia Beach

and seeing the US Navy warships moving out from Hampton Roads to the Atlantic!

Having worked on two of those nearby bases in the past, I can tell you that the problem would be getting the host nation to allow offensive action against Iran to be launched from their territory.

Taking out Iranian SAM defenses last June by Israel Air Force

Exactly, from your bleacher seats. If you were one of the pilots being tasked with the job, or if you were a serviceman within rocket range of Iran you wouldn't be saying things like strike groups are over-rated and what's the delay.

You would want to know that assests like TRAP or PJ's are ready to come get you before you end up on YouTube getting your head cut off. You would like to know the logistics of parts and equipment were handled correctly before you strapped yourself to a rocket with missiles hanging from the wings. As well as a million other things that it takes to be successful and not die.

I understand we have a small window here, but it isn't worth things going south and us being unprepared.

a lot of media reporting USS Abraham Lincoln is 105 miles west of Phillipines

now being deployed to Middle East Arabian Gulf

looking on the map, how do you get across the Indonesian island chain?

they are saying 7 days to transit but it does not look that far from Indonesia to basically south of India in order to launch from Arabian Sea

160th SOAR can conduct CSAR from Dubai or Saudi

Not their mission.

Been reading today that yesterday was a ruse and the regime activated their "escape" plans and we watched where they went. Their new safe spaces are identified.

Don't think it's true but I bet we did learn some things yesterday because there was a lot of preparation moves on both sides.