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It's here (COVID 19)

452,723 Views | 3356 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by TexasAggie008
752bro4
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AG
234 & 9 today
Lowest T-7 (449.7) since June 26, d/d reduction of 8.0%
Lowest Wednesday since May
T-14 down another 6.25% to 503.9

Orange - new cases
Blue - Trailing-7

TexasAggie008
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# in hospitals (494) is south of 500 for first time since mid-late June

also, pretty sure consecutive days of sub-300 cases hasn't happened sine early June
752bro4
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Numbers are down - more testing! Don't care who you are or where you're from


riverrataggie
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752bro4 said:

Numbers are down - more testing! Don't care who you are or where you're from



This is idiotic and he is a threat to our city.
TexasAggie008
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Clay's Fourth Reich must not fall
Ol Jock 99
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More testing with numbers going down is a good thing. The testing percent positive should, in theory, drop too, which is an important marker.
riverrataggie
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Ol Jock 99 said:

More testing with numbers going down is a good thing. The testing percent positive should, in theory, drop too, which is an important marker.


One should not be tying up resources if it's not needed.

If you do not have symptoms and have no reason to think you may have been exposed you should not be wasting resources to be tested.
TexasAggie008
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99 - I agree overall but getting people with no symptoms to head to testing centers in droves, when its 100+ outside, and especially with all covid data points showing dramatic improvement is a tough sell.

Having ample tests available and quick results is great though....leave it all in place until this crap is 100% over. I personally don't think a even-worse wave is around the corner, but gives them 0 excuse to threaten closures/restrictions if anyone who needs a test can get one and they get results in a day or two.
riverrataggie
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Also if you have no reason to test why the hell would you got to a testing center, drive thru or not, and expose yourself where other sick people are?
tysker
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riverrataggie said:

Also if you have no reason to test why the hell would you got to a testing center, drive thru or not, and expose yourself where other sick people are?

And who's paying for it?
Ol Jock 99
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I agree with all y'all. It's dumb. But it should (key word) show things are improving even more.
riverrataggie
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Ol Jock 99 said:

I agree with all y'all. It's dumb. But it should (key word) show things are improving even more.


You fire me up Ole Jock.
Phat32
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As if Clay actually cares what the numbers are.
YouBet
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Zero reason to get tested if you don't have symptoms. All it does is feed the fear narrative.
tylercsbn9
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YouBet said:

Zero reason to get tested if you don't have symptoms. All it does is feed the fear narrative.


Lena and Sly are pushing the same BS in Houston. All kinds of free testing site but none of them have waits.
YouBet
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As a side note, I will be surprised if I don't have it right now. Was in Vail the last week and it was absolutely packed with people. Obviously everyone wore masks inside establishments (until sat) and I would say 50% of people wore them outside.

Texans, Hasidic Jews, and Italians were the largest groups there by far. Yes, strange mix. Hell, half the workers in the shops in Vail Village are all transplanted Texans. #werunthatstate
culdeus
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YouBet said:

As a side note, I will be surprised if I don't have it right now. Was in Vail the last week and it was absolutely packed with people. Obviously everyone wore masks inside establishments (until sat) and I would say 50% of people wore them outside.

Texans, Hasidic Jews, and Italians were the largest groups there by far. Yes, strange mix. Hell, half the workers in the shops in Vail Village are all transplanted Texans. #werunthatstate


There is usually a ton of Mexico City billionaire kids running around in VV. Was there about three weeks ago. I mean it was more or less business as usual.
Phat32
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Headed there today
YouBet
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yukmonkey said:

Headed there today
Good luck and have fun!
Comeby!
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culdeus said:

YouBet said:

As a side note, I will be surprised if I don't have it right now. Was in Vail the last week and it was absolutely packed with people. Obviously everyone wore masks inside establishments (until sat) and I would say 50% of people wore them outside.

Texans, Hasidic Jews, and Italians were the largest groups there by far. Yes, strange mix. Hell, half the workers in the shops in Vail Village are all transplanted Texans. #werunthatstate


There is usually a ton of Mexico City billionaire kids running around in VV. Was there about three weeks ago. I mean it was more or less business as usual.
For clarification, are we talking about billion dollars or pesos?
Ol Jock 99
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641 and 13. And apparently our percent positive is increasing too.

Ride that roller coaster...
Ol Jock 99
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Bob Knights Liver
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They include positive antibody tests in the positive test percentages, right? If so that could be misleading since testing positive for antibodies is a cumulative value, not an instantaneous value.
Ol Jock 99
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Opposite it appears:

" Open Texas began in phases on May 1 with more openings May 8 and May 18. Until May 20, the calculation included antibody tests as well as viral tests. The removal of antibody tests on May 20 led to a small increase in the rate."

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/what-we-know-about-coronavirus-cases-in-north-texas-around-the-state/2335449/
agcrock2005
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Could positive rate be going up because more people realize this is stupid and not that serious, so the people getting tested are people that are really worried?? If I get sick, I'm going to stay in bed and get over this rather than going to get tested because I'm not worried about it. Also, how many false positives? I'm sure they adjust the numbers afterward right?
FincAg
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yukmonkey said:

Headed there today

Watch the roads as the fire in Glenwood Springs has jumped the Colorado River. High winds and we cannot even see the divide.

Bob Knights Liver
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agcrock2005 said:

Could positive rate be going up because more people realize this is stupid and not that serious, so the people getting tested are people that are really worried?? If I get sick, I'm going to stay in bed and get over this rather than going to get tested because I'm not worried about it. Also, how many false positives? I'm sure they adjust the numbers afterward right?
Positive test rate is positive test rate. We need this to go down - whether that's due to the virus burning out or through prevention measures, we need to see this trend the right way.
DFWTLR
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Bob Knights Liver said:

agcrock2005 said:

Could positive rate be going up because more people realize this is stupid and not that serious, so the people getting tested are people that are really worried?? If I get sick, I'm going to stay in bed and get over this rather than going to get tested because I'm not worried about it. Also, how many false positives? I'm sure they adjust the numbers afterward right?
Positive test rate is positive test rate. We need this to go down - whether that's due to the virus burning out or through prevention measures, we need to see this trend the right way.
Positive test rate surge is under investigation:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/texas-governor-says-positivity-rate-surge-under-investigation

Massive dump of tests today as well, hospitalizations have been going way down, that seems to be the only number that can be trusted in this whole fiasco.

Bob Knights Liver
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Well that appears to be a big deal. What would the motivation be for hospitals not reporting negative cases? Or is this more likely the counties excluding them from their official numbers?
agcrock2005
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Bob Knights Liver said:

agcrock2005 said:

Could positive rate be going up because more people realize this is stupid and not that serious, so the people getting tested are people that are really worried?? If I get sick, I'm going to stay in bed and get over this rather than going to get tested because I'm not worried about it. Also, how many false positives? I'm sure they adjust the numbers afterward right?
Positive test rate is positive test rate. We need this to go down - whether that's due to the virus burning out or through prevention measures, we need to see this trend the right way.
You're right...screw what the numerator and denominator mean (sorry I'm a math/finance nerd) this fraction just needs to go down!!! Please re-read what I posted and actually think about it. If everyone who doesn't feel well goes and gets tested even though they don't have COVID, then the "positive test rate" you're so worried about would go way down.
Hood
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This is correct. Here's the testing history.



It mirrors the increase in cases and then collapses as people stop getting themselves tested likely because there are fewer people with symptoms. If you want to drive the testing way up and crush your percent positive rate, you're going to have find ways to get lots of healthy people to voluntarily test themselves. I'm not sure how or why you would do that.
riverrataggie
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We should just refine what 'test' means.

Go to the dentist, check a kid in day care, physical, etc you get the questions and get your temp checked. You pass, count it as a negative.

I'm so good at coming up with worthless policies. I'd make a fine candidate for office.
Bob Knights Liver
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As long as there is no manipulation of data, positive test rate is truly something to pay attention to. It's not perfect, but neither are total number of cases, fatalities, or hospitalizations. They are all indicators that can be used to understand the trend relative to time. We want them all trending the right way.

You can't assume that less healthy people would be getting tested in April than they are in July unless you have evidence to back that up. Especially with counties making testing more available. Now if local authorities or hospitals are under reporting negative tests that would be a pretty big deal.

My personal opinions are similar to yours - that this appears a reactive one-size fits all response at best, if not deliberate misleading by government officials as a power grab. Not that this isn't a serious issue, but that the last few months a more targeted approach seems more reasonable if the goal is protecting citizens.
riverrataggie
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I understand where your coming from on an health care academic level, but when we decided to shut down our economy and change our geo political stances on a virus where >99.6% will survive this became more than It's only about your health exercise.

Hospitalization and severe cases have to weigh more into decisions being made now than the others.
tysker
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Bob Knights Liver said:

As long as there is no manipulation of data, positive test rate is truly something to pay attention to. It's not perfect, but neither are total number of cases, fatalities, or hospitalizations. They are all indicators that can be used to understand the trend relative to time. We want them all trending the right way.
The problem with positivity rate is that it can be heavily bias when testing non-random populations. It can be of value but more information about the test population must been known to distill any relevant comparisons.
 
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