Ol Jock 99 said:
Deaths are starting to creep up. Will be interesting to see if it's a trend or outlier.
We've been under 5 daily forever. 8 yesterday. 33 today.
Is that really daily or cumulative?
It's here (COVID 19)
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Last: 3 yr ago by TexasAggie008
Is that really daily or cumulative?
Those are the numbers Clay is reporting for Dallas Co, 8 yesterday and 33 today.
So strong chance it's cumulative then. That's what he's done in the past.DFWTLR said:
Those are the numbers Clay is reporting for Dallas Co, 8 yesterday and 33 toda
People tend to not pull the plug on the weekend, so Tuesday "catch up" isn't too surprising. Again, we'll see. We're over a month into the spike and deaths haven't been catching up yet. Maybe we're getting there now.
Fort worth has their very own refrigerated truck morgue now.
2088 new; 30 deaths reported today by Dallas County.
Ol Jock 99 said:
2088 new; 30 deaths reported today by Dallas County.
Do you know how the flu deaths compare year to year? Asking not to start a argument. Just curious if this is unusual for respiratory diseases.
For grins, I looked at 2018. The CDC reports flu and pneumonia together, which is iffy at best, but let's roll with it. It you take Texas's flu and pneumonia deaths for 18 and apply Dallas County's population percentage, you have right around 800 deaths.
As of today, COVID has accounted for over 1300 deaths in Dallas County.
Edit...Doc Jock just educated me...all flu deaths technically are pneumonia, so they just lump them. But there are many people that die of pneumonia of other causes. So true "got the flu and woke up dead" would be significantly under that 800.
As of today, COVID has accounted for over 1300 deaths in Dallas County.
Edit...Doc Jock just educated me...all flu deaths technically are pneumonia, so they just lump them. But there are many people that die of pneumonia of other causes. So true "got the flu and woke up dead" would be significantly under that 800.
Ol Jock 99 said:
For grins, I looked at 2018. The CDC reports flu and pneumonia together, which is iffy at best, but let's roll with it. It you take Texas's flu and pneumonia deaths for 18 and apply Dallas County's population percentage, you have right around 800 deaths.
As of today, COVID has accounted for over 1300 deaths in Dallas County.
Thanks for the leg work. Do you know how many flu deaths this year?
Ol Jock 99 said:
For grins, I looked at 2018. The CDC reports flu and pneumonia together, which is iffy at best, but let's roll with it. It you take Texas's flu and pneumonia deaths for 18 and apply Dallas County's population percentage, you have right around 800 deaths.
As of today, COVID has accounted for over 1300 deaths in Dallas County.
That's neat but covid really didn't hit till May.
This is the first illness I can think of with "close to real time" reporting.
Also, see the edit above.
Also, see the edit above.
Sure. But should you annualize RONA? Hope not.
Ol Jock 99 said:
This is the first illness I can think of with "close to real time" reporting.
Also, see the edit above.
First ever. If we realtimed every illness, people would be absolutely shocked.
I don't know what this is supposed to mean.Ol Jock 99 said:
Sure. But should you annualize RONA? Hope not.
So it looks like as of yesterday DFW-TSAE hospital area topped out the maximum daily deaths from the first wave of 41. This with nearly exactly 2x the cases, on 10% more hospital admits.
So depending on your point of view you are looking at a situation that is roughly half as deadly as the first wave from a case perspective.
From a different direction you are looking at fewer cases being converted to inpatients. Which is also good.
Back of envelope it looks like DFW could realistically survive 8-10k cases a day and likely not max out hospitals. Right now it's in the 4-6k range.
At 4319 dead at this point, realistically I'm going to call it at 7800 for the final total with a daily max of 65 happening on 12/20. Not sure what Clay Jenkins had in his pool.
https://covid-texas.csullender.com/?tsa=E
So depending on your point of view you are looking at a situation that is roughly half as deadly as the first wave from a case perspective.
From a different direction you are looking at fewer cases being converted to inpatients. Which is also good.
Back of envelope it looks like DFW could realistically survive 8-10k cases a day and likely not max out hospitals. Right now it's in the 4-6k range.
At 4319 dead at this point, realistically I'm going to call it at 7800 for the final total with a daily max of 65 happening on 12/20. Not sure what Clay Jenkins had in his pool.
https://covid-texas.csullender.com/?tsa=E
Haven't heard an update on this anywhere on the local news. Did we make 7 days straight?TexasAggie008 said:
14.8% today
5 more days and back at 75%
Who really cares, nobody is going to do a damn thing either way.drewser95 said:Haven't heard an update on this anywhere on the local news. Did we make 7 days straight?TexasAggie008 said:
14.8% today
5 more days and back at 75%
yukmonkey said:Ol Jock 99 said:
This is the first illness I can think of with "close to real time" reporting.
Also, see the edit above.
First ever. If we realtimed every illness, people would be absolutely shocked.
I typically watch NBC5 l, in past years they have reported flu deaths and West Nile. Obviously not every disease/illness but this isn't the first time the news has done real time.
Same here. Everything seems as busy as it was before, which is great.
no, its been hovering just above 15 the last few days.....seems like a decent bet that its the plateau right now, but tbd when it truly starts dropping
Well, I was able to avoid it for 9 months but I let my guard down for one night. We went to our friends house to have a game night and let our kids play together. No masks or anything. Their son had COVID, but wasn't showing any symptoms or anything. 2 days later, he comes home from school sick and tests positive. I tested Wednesday, was positive Friday, then followed it up with a rapid test which was positive. Lost all smell/taste on Wednesday.
I'm in quarantine now with about the worst cold I've ever had. Not quite "flu" level of sick, but breathing is about 10% harder than normal. Dry cough.
I work from home and try not to go out if I don't have to. Just let my guard down for one night. Thankfully my kids and wife are negative so far, but I haven't seen/hugged my kids since Friday and it's killing me.
This disease sucks big time.
I'm in quarantine now with about the worst cold I've ever had. Not quite "flu" level of sick, but breathing is about 10% harder than normal. Dry cough.
I work from home and try not to go out if I don't have to. Just let my guard down for one night. Thankfully my kids and wife are negative so far, but I haven't seen/hugged my kids since Friday and it's killing me.
This disease sucks big time.
Any local updates?
Numbers are high, first responders are getting vaxxed. Deaths are still weirdly low, but that's better than the opposite. Doc Jock said that apparently 1/2 the ICU beds in Dallas County are at Childrens.
You can count my wife and I as part of the new cases. Mrs Dr FincAg more likely than not picked it up from a patient. We don't have a lot of outside interactions expect for her work and she showed symptoms 5 days prior to myself.
We have been relatively fine, it is our boys, 5 and 2 we worry about. Both have had respiratory issues in the past. And it really sucks to see your children sick and there isn't much you can do for them.
We have been relatively fine, it is our boys, 5 and 2 we worry about. Both have had respiratory issues in the past. And it really sucks to see your children sick and there isn't much you can do for them.
Hospitalizations by Trauma Service Area
Seems like the last month or so has been the most intense of the entire thing. Anyone else seeing the same?
Update from Yesterday:
Having finally figured out where to find all of the relevant source data, I think the current surge boils down to two big things:
1 - DFW (TSA region E more specifically) spiked much less in the summer than the other big TX metros
2 - Dallas COUNTY is currently a bit above the summer peak in terms of hospitalizations....but the other 3 big metro counties (which spiked much less than Dallas in the summer) are a much bigger component.
Summer Surge (4 major metro's # of days at 15%+ covid-patients hospitalized during this time)
Austin - 17 (July 6-22...got as high as 18%)
Houston - 36 (June 30-Aug 4....got as high as 23%)
San Antonio - 45 (June 29-Aug 12...got as high as 31%)
DFW - 0!! (we hit just over 14% on July 26th, which was the high...and from early July to early Aug we were steadily in the 11-12-13% range...but that was the peak)
Dallas COUNTY was no higher than 800+ hospitalizations at this time
Tarrant county maxed at right under 700
Collin Co in the 200s
Denton Co in the low 100s
Current Surge
Austin - 1 (just hit it yesterday, after hitting 10% threshold in late Dec)
Houston - 8 (hit the mark Dec 28..had hit 10% in early Dec)
San Antonio - 15 (hit the mark Dec 21...hit 10% in late Nov)
DFW - 39 (hit 15% in late Nov, pushing 25% now)
Dallas county is now right over 1000+ hospitalizations (25% higher than summer peak)
Tarrant county is now over 1400 (200% higher)
Collin Co is pushing 600 (almost 300%)
Denton Co is above 200 (200% higher).
source :
https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/additionaldata/ (hospital data over time by TSA)
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/010421-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/public-health/disease-control---prevention/COVID-19.html
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/c00baf45f12a4899aae1c812e29d6cde
https://gis-covid19-dentoncounty.hub.arcgis.com/pages/covid-19cases
1 - DFW (TSA region E more specifically) spiked much less in the summer than the other big TX metros
2 - Dallas COUNTY is currently a bit above the summer peak in terms of hospitalizations....but the other 3 big metro counties (which spiked much less than Dallas in the summer) are a much bigger component.
Summer Surge (4 major metro's # of days at 15%+ covid-patients hospitalized during this time)
Austin - 17 (July 6-22...got as high as 18%)
Houston - 36 (June 30-Aug 4....got as high as 23%)
San Antonio - 45 (June 29-Aug 12...got as high as 31%)
DFW - 0!! (we hit just over 14% on July 26th, which was the high...and from early July to early Aug we were steadily in the 11-12-13% range...but that was the peak)
Dallas COUNTY was no higher than 800+ hospitalizations at this time
Tarrant county maxed at right under 700
Collin Co in the 200s
Denton Co in the low 100s
Current Surge
Austin - 1 (just hit it yesterday, after hitting 10% threshold in late Dec)
Houston - 8 (hit the mark Dec 28..had hit 10% in early Dec)
San Antonio - 15 (hit the mark Dec 21...hit 10% in late Nov)
DFW - 39 (hit 15% in late Nov, pushing 25% now)
Dallas county is now right over 1000+ hospitalizations (25% higher than summer peak)
Tarrant county is now over 1400 (200% higher)
Collin Co is pushing 600 (almost 300%)
Denton Co is above 200 (200% higher).
source :
https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/additionaldata/ (hospital data over time by TSA)
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/010421-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/public-health/disease-control---prevention/COVID-19.html
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/c00baf45f12a4899aae1c812e29d6cde
https://gis-covid19-dentoncounty.hub.arcgis.com/pages/covid-19cases
2800 new cases with a 26.5% positive in Dallas County today.
The vax rollout is funny. Places you'd never think would be a vax center are getting allocations and people are just blowing up their phones.
https://www.comprehensiveortho.com/single-post/the-covid-19-vaccine-is-here
https://www.comprehensiveortho.com/single-post/the-covid-19-vaccine-is-here
Got tents popping up at hospitals. Worst of this is probably hitting in next week or two. Should start to see some benefits from the vax and less travel after that, ideally.yukmonkey said:
Seems like the last month or so has been the most intense of the entire thing. Anyone else seeing the same?
3200 today. That's a record.
My 3.5 yr old daughter had a 102+ fever last night. Wife took her to cooks (willow park) this morning and she tested positive for Covid. We all have to quarantine for 10 days. Our doctor wants the wife & I to test in 6 days. My mom and the inlaws watch the girls during the day but luckily they already got their first vaccine shot. Not to mention my wife is a kindergarten teacher and the option is to find a sub and use her sick days (10 days) or to teach from home w/ a 3.5yr old & 8 month old.
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