As I read the breakdowns and digest the stats, I'm seeing some serious issues for the Thunder.
1) their paint problems are catastrophic. On defense, they gave up 40 points in the paint in the 1st half and 26 in the 2nd for a grand total of 66 (ouch). Another figure: the Spurs scored 122 points, yet they only made 9 3 pointers and 13 FTs. On offense, the Thunder have almost no scoring ability in their front court. I mean Perkins, Collison, and Adams are nice situational players, but they can't score; Duncan, Diaw, and Splitter are orders of magnitude better in that regard. Just to put it in perspective, this postseason, those 3 Thunder players are averaging a combined 9.1ppg. The Spurs' 3 big men are averaging 34 and if game 1 is a harbinger of things to come, they're going to exceed that average by quite a bit this series.
2) Yes the Thunder closed the gap in q3, but a) Durant and Westbrook had to do everything (seriously. they scored 21 of the Thunder's 23 3rd quarter points. Fisher chipped in 2 FTs) and b) the Spurs played very poorly. They missed a lot of decent looks and had some uncharacteristically bad passes and TOs. If the Spurs had made just a few of their easy buckets in that quarter, there wouldn't have been a Thunder run and the Spurs would have scored 130 and won by 30. I guess this way is better, though, because we ran Durant and Westbrook ragged.
3) The Thunder don't have enough weapons. As far as scoring, it's Westbrook and Durant at the top and then everyone else far, far below. Those two are used to playing heavy minutes, but the Spurs' depth + offensive execution runs teams into the ground. Playing 40+ minutes against them is suicide as we saw tonight (Durant was clutching his side from cramps halfway through the 4th). As I read on ESPN, a coach can't give one of his players a break by having him defend the Spurs' worst offensive player because even option 5 is running all over the damn court. With Ibaka, they had the defense to take the offensive hit and give them some breaks. Without Ibaka, they no longer have that level of D. The Thunder need to score 110+ to beat the Spurs, and they aren't scoring 110+ unless their big 2 play 40+. If they're playing those minutes, the Spurs are going to have a big advantage in close games.
I know it's just one game and who knows? Maybe the Thunder just had an off night. But when you look at how the Spurs scored 122, it doesn't look like a fluke. In other words, this wasn't a red hot shooting night by SA, they just got great looks close to the basket all friggin night, and they took advantage of them. And I don't see those opportunities disappearing. Adams and Perkins and Collison aren't going to morph into a monster, paint-stuffing frontcourt before Wednesday. Also, the Thunder's bench can't play any better (they scored a whopping 47 on 16/30 shooting in Game 1).
If the Thunder are going to win this series, they need to do a few things:
1) cut down on their TOs and try to force a few more. If the Spurs are going to get easy looks while the Thunder's offense is more outside-focused, they need to swing the possession numbers
2) Get more FTs (in addition to the other obvious benefits, these slow the game down and give Durant and Westbrook some rest).
3) Try to "Russell Westbrook" Manu Ginobili. In other words, since Manu's a no conscience shooter that will keep pulling the trigger no matter how cold he is, purposefully give him some mediocre looks. This is a two edged sword obviously because if he's on, Manu will shoot 50% and score 20. But in his older age, it's no longer automatic. Still, it's a better defensive strategy than whatever the hell they were doing tonight!
[This message has been edited by Deputy Travis Junior (edited 5/20/2014 4:20a).]