***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

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In reply to JB!98 • 2:31p, 2/18/26
AG
That's probably exactly what it is
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LMCane
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2:40p, 2/18/26
CNN reporting IDF raising alert level.

Aishah Hainsley at Fox says not true.

but then you have ISRAELI news reporting on a direct quote from head of Home Front Command

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In reply to LMCane • 2:41p, 2/18/26
AG
Summary for those of us who don't speak hebrew?
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Yukon Cornelius
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2:44p, 2/18/26
AG
This is entirely about the budget elections on March 31 in Israel. Right. Ie it's trending to fail and the Israel government dissolve and trigger new prime minister elections. In which case its protected bibi will lose and likely wind up in jail. So this war is being pushed by him to get Us involved to get Israel in conflict and pass the budget by march 31.

No different really tha Zelensky keeping his war going to stay in power.

Sadly I had hope Trump would not be so gullible and so easily led around by the nose.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/coalition-advances-key-budget-bill-after-enough-haredi-mks-walk-back-revolt-plans/amp/
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LMCane
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In reply to 4 • 2:55p, 2/18/26
4 said:
Summary for those of us who don't speak hebrew?

Saying that

the Head of the Home Front Command in the Knesset Committee stated they are moving in preparation for war to higher level of readiness

so this is tonight's Channel 12 News Program reporting on what a senior officer stated

but of course they could be inaccurately stating it - or misinterpreting it.
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Tailgate88
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In reply to LMCane • 2:59p, 2/18/26
AG
LMCane said:
CNN reporting IDF raising alert level.

Aishah Hainsley at Fox says not true.

but then you have ISRAELI news reporting on a direct quote from head of Home Front Command


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The Fall Guy
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3:03p, 2/18/26
AG
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Im Gipper
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4:55p, 2/18/26
Ding dong grifter mad about his poll not going as planned



I'm Gipper
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The Fall Guy
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In reply to Im Gipper • 4:56p, 2/18/26
AG
Im Gipper said:
Ding dong grifter mad about his poll not going as planned




Sounds about right
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Keyno
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9:02p, 2/18/26
This is shaping up very similarly to last year's hit on Iran. We are in "negotiations". We have given an ultimatum (a much shorter time frame this time). We are deploying strike packages. Basically nobody is going to back down.

The concerning difference this time is that Trump seems to want to do "regime change" now. Whether that is due to the wishes of Netanyahu or Trump's stubbornness to not make a deal after ripping up the JCPOA , we may never know. What we do know is that a "regime change" would need boots on the ground (Iraq), or many years of air strikes and backing insurgents until the government collapses (Syria). Both of these options are the standard characteristics of the so called Forever War Trump used to oppose.

I would say we hit Iran in some way before summer.
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theJonatron
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9:56p, 2/18/26
AG
If you destroy their military bases and the heads of their current government, the people will have a better chance of taking over.

There are likely going hundreds of under cover assets moving weapons around and planning,

This isn't the CIA/Mossads first government take over.

39 trillion in debt let's use these expensive weaponry and diminish our munitions right in time when our first chip factories go live this year. Thats when China hits Taiwan.
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halfastros81
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In reply to theJonatron • 2:33a, 2/19/26
AG
China is in a bind economically. I dunno if that makes it more likely or less likely that they go after Taiwan tho. I'd lean towards more likely but if they were to fail there their problems get magnified. Personally I don't believe Xi has the balls to do it given their internal issues. Jmo.
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Keyno
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In reply to halfastros81 • 3:01a, 2/19/26
halfastros81 said:
China is in a bind economically. I dunno if that makes it more likely or less likely that they go after Taiwan tho. I'd lean towards more likely but if they were to fail there their problems get magnified. Personally I don't believe Xi has the balls to do it given their internal issues. Jmo.

Xi takes Taiwan if get we bogged down in another middle east Forever War. Don't be naive
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nortex97
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7:54a, 2/19/26
AG
It's sort of breathtaking how little their currency is worth now.


Not sure which thread to post on at this point but I guess this will be the military strike one? The other one was mainly about the protesters earlier this year.
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YouBet
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In reply to Ag_07 • 8:47a, 2/19/26
AG
Ag_07 said:
Pretty sure there is a general understanding among the participating countries that in the name of friendly competition and everyone coexisting during the games nothing really pops off during the Olympics.

I think it's very much a factor.


I'm just glad we didn't attack them in January while Iran was chairing the UN Security Council.

That might have given a black eye to the highly relevant UN.
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GAC06
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In reply to YouBet • 8:55a, 2/19/26
AG
Iran isn't on the security council this year or last year
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to Keyno • 8:57a, 2/19/26
Keyno said:
halfastros81 said:
China is in a bind economically. I dunno if that makes it more likely or less likely that they go after Taiwan tho. I'd lean towards more likely but if they were to fail there their problems get magnified. Personally I don't believe Xi has the balls to do it given their internal issues. Jmo.

Xi takes Taiwan if get we bogged down in another middle east Forever War. Don't be naive



This is a possibility…by doing this we are de prioritizing other threats.
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YouBet
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In reply to GAC06 • 8:57a, 2/19/26
AG
GAC06 said:
Iran isn't on the security council this year or last year


Dang it. I mixed them up with Somalia.

Iran is vice chairing the Social Development function.

Same difference, really.
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Yukon Cornelius
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9:02a, 2/19/26
AG
Still no one has articulated why bombing and starting a war with Iran is in the best interest and necessary for America.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 9:13a, 2/19/26
Yukon Cornelius said:
Still no one has articulated why bombing and starting a war with Iran is in the best interest and necessary for America.

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YouBet
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 9:21a, 2/19/26
AG
Yukon Cornelius said:
Still no one has articulated why bombing and starting a war with Iran is in the best interest and necessary for America.


All I can tell you is keeping them from a nuke is in the best interests of everyone. Beyond that, I see no reason to get involved.

Question is how close are they to getting one?

Nobody Knows gif.
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to YouBet • 9:29a, 2/19/26
YouBet said:
Yukon Cornelius said:
Still no one has articulated why bombing and starting a war with Iran is in the best interest and necessary for America.


All I can tell you is keeping them from a nuke is in the best interests of everyone. Beyond that, I see no reason to get involved.

Question is how close are they to getting one?

Nobody Knows gif.



For clarity…by doing this we're saying Iran not getting a nuke is more important than defending TWN from the PRC.

This is gonna be a binary choice for us.
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GAC06
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In reply to K2-HMFIC • 9:35a, 2/19/26
AG
Only if China acts pretty much immediately
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:40a, 2/19/26
GAC06 said:
Only if China acts pretty much immediately


Munitions consumption is the bigger issue…depending on scale, replacing expenditures could be in the years.

(Looks at calendar year 2027)
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HumpitPuryear
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 9:41a, 2/19/26
AG
Yukon Cornelius said:
Still no one has articulated why bombing and starting a war with Iran is in the best interest and necessary for America.

Well, they are in cahoots with all of our enemies - drones and other arms to Russia, fuel to China, Nuclear and missile tech to N Korea. They were very involved with Maduro in Venezuela. There's probably other things we are not aware of publicly. Would not be surprised if they are collaborating with the cartels. And of course they are supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, and generally stirring up trouble in the ME. We certainly have reasons to hit them. Are we really starting it? Guess it's a matter of opinion if all that can justify the expense and risk of what's likely coming.

Personally, if a nation state is trying to build a nuclear arsenal and their official position is to destroy us and one of our closest allies you don't sit around and wait to see if they can actually pull it off.

They are on the brink of collapse. Seems like a good time to see if a little push will finish them off. Besides, it's more politically acceptable to other powers in the region if we are seen as taking the lead on this rather than Israel.
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GAC06
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In reply to K2-HMFIC • 9:46a, 2/19/26
AG
K2-HMFIC said:
GAC06 said:
Only if China acts pretty much immediately


Munitions consumption is the bigger issue…depending on scale, replacing expenditures could be in the years.

(Looks at calendar year 2027)


We've been ramping up production of a lot of stuff, and there's only some stuff that would be directly impacted by both scenarios like TLAM's and patriots. Taiwan would be more air to air and anti ship than air to ground like Iran
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YouBet
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:49a, 2/19/26
AG
GAC06 said:
K2-HMFIC said:
GAC06 said:
Only if China acts pretty much immediately


Munitions consumption is the bigger issue…depending on scale, replacing expenditures could be in the years.

(Looks at calendar year 2027)


We've been ramping up production of a lot of stuff, and there's only some stuff that would be directly impacted by both scenarios like TLAM's and patriots. Taiwan would be more air to air and anti ship than air to ground like Iran


And I'm guessing that Trump's recent partial capitulation to Xi on the China Trade Deal, and Xi's own internal coup against him are our hoped for insurance policies that nothing happens immediately.
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:50a, 2/19/26
GAC06 said:
K2-HMFIC said:
GAC06 said:
Only if China acts pretty much immediately


Munitions consumption is the bigger issue…depending on scale, replacing expenditures could be in the years.

(Looks at calendar year 2027)


We've been ramping up production of a lot of stuff, and there's only some stuff that would be directly impacted by both scenarios like TLAM's and patriots. Taiwan would be more air to air and anti ship than air to ground like Iran



Ehhh…TLAM, Patriots, THAAD, JASSM are all high high demand for both conflicts and we don't have enough SRM production in place yet.

AMPAC just started expansion on ammonium perchlorate…and that's for CURRENT demand.

Adding Iranian consumption rates to the mix means we just get deeper in the hole.
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LMCane
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9:53a, 2/19/26
good breakdown of Islamic Republic Naval forces

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bonfarr
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9:55a, 2/19/26
AG
Trump is going to make American Liberals the new champion of Islamic Theocracy just as soon as we strike Iran. Thoughts and prayers for the purple haired septum pierced women of the US when they start wailing about Trump's injustice to the Ayotollah.
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bonfarr
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In reply to LMCane • 9:57a, 2/19/26
AG
If we strike Iran we are going to put their missile ships and drone carriers in the bottom of the sea in the opening salvo.
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Im Gipper
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In reply to YouBet • 9:58a, 2/19/26
YouBet said:
Yukon Cornelius said:
Still no one has articulated why bombing and starting a war with Iran is in the best interest and necessary for America.


All I can tell you is keeping them from a nuke is in the best interests of everyone. Beyond that, I see no reason to get involved.

Question is how close are they to getting one?

Nobody Knows gif.

This was explained to him last year when the airstrikes happened.

I'm Gipper
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LMCane
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In reply to Keyno • 9:58a, 2/19/26
Keyno said:
This is shaping up very similarly to last year's hit on Iran. We are in "negotiations". We have given an ultimatum (a much shorter time frame this time). We are deploying strike packages. Basically nobody is going to back down.

The concerning difference this time is that Trump seems to want to do "regime change" now. Whether that is due to the wishes of Netanyahu or Trump's stubbornness to not make a deal after ripping up the JCPOA , we may never know. What we do know is that a "regime change" would need boots on the ground (Iraq), or many years of air strikes and backing insurgents until the government collapses (Syria). Both of these options are the standard characteristics of the so called Forever War Trump used to oppose.

I would say we hit Iran in some way before summer.


LMAO as if the TWO options you presented are the only possible reasons Trump wants Regime Change.

not that Iran has been at war with the United States for 47 years

not that Iran took Americans hostage for 444 days

not that Iran blew up 243 Marines in Beirut in 1983

not that Iran supplied VBIEDs in Iraq which killed hundreds of American personnel

not that Iran has lied about the Missile Technology Control Regime and NPT and JCPOA

not that Iran threatens the USA literally every day with destruction

I could literally post another ten valid reasons.

but nope, according to this guy it's only because of 1. The Jews 2. The Stubborness of Trump

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YouBet
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In reply to bonfarr • 10:00a, 2/19/26
AG
bonfarr said:
Trump is going to make American Liberals the new champion of Islamic Theocracy just as soon as we strike Iran. Thoughts and prayers for the purple haired septum pierced women of the US when they start wailing about Trump's injustice to the Ayotollah.


Frankly surprised we haven't heard from John Kerry yet. I guess he's still awaiting his orders from the Ayatollah.
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GAC06
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In reply to K2-HMFIC • 10:03a, 2/19/26
AG
K2-HMFIC said:
GAC06 said:
K2-HMFIC said:
GAC06 said:
Only if China acts pretty much immediately


Munitions consumption is the bigger issue…depending on scale, replacing expenditures could be in the years.

(Looks at calendar year 2027)


We've been ramping up production of a lot of stuff, and there's only some stuff that would be directly impacted by both scenarios like TLAM's and patriots. Taiwan would be more air to air and anti ship than air to ground like Iran



Ehhh…TLAM, Patriots, THAAD, JASSM are all high high demand for both conflicts and we don't have enough SRM production in place yet.

AMPAC just started expansion on ammonium perchlorate…and that's for CURRENT demand.

Adding Iranian consumption rates to the mix means we just get deeper in the hole.


If Iran's air defense is neutralized as fast as it was last time, we won't need a ton of higher end stuff like JASSM. We can use JDAM, etc that likely wouldn't be of as much use against China.

Let's see how it plays out. It's not a definite "binary choice" like you claimed.
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