Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:
WestAustinAg said:
Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:
WestAustinAg said:
amercer said:
Tergdor said:
Fortunately for Paxton, all of the false preacher stuff from Talarico outshines Paxton's "poor Christian" criticisms.
Don't learn the wrong lesson from 2024. All the trans ads were effective not because people actually care much about that issue, but because it told them that the Dems spent their time on stuff they didn't care about.
Most voters don't care about the stuff that animates F16, and so it only really resonates if there is something else to hold it up. Most of the "Talarico is a weirdo, vegan, fake Christian" stuff isn't going to move the needle with swing voters. If people are really pissed at Trump the democrats have a chance in the race. If not, then not
Swing voters dislike phony politicians. His views on vegan campaigns, 6 genders, fake christian-y stuff is actually going to be a big tell for the part of the electorate that doesn't check in until late.
Do you really think the culture war stuff will have the same sway on these elections as in the past? I think the economy will matter much more. Paxton will try to steer the conversation towards the culture stuff, but I don't think that is what is going to get voters motivated this cycle.
Cultural issues are a short hand way to define the opposition as "out of touch with normal people". They work. And when Talarico says he has 6 genders he's actually fighting the same culture war. He did that to fly a flag that he is onboard with all the trans element of the party. This is the foundation of his run so he had to lock that down first.
If the election/citizen concern moved swiftly to the economy I dont think Talarico has any advantage on those issues. He's been a school teacher....and a politician.
Sure, I don't really disagree too much with any of that. The model for what wins elections is just way simpler to me. What wins elections is getting certain demographics to the polls and having other demographics not care that much. I think Ds are pretty motivated this cycle, and I think Rs are pretty unenthusiastic, mostly from issues top down. I don't think Trump has energized people with his actions in his first two years.
I'm probably dead wrong and Paxton will win by 12 points, but from a macro level I think the Rs have an uphill battle this year.
I think you'll see the same effect that you've seen in the D turnout in 2020 & 2024 of simply voting against Trump but flipped. Pretty much every single view and soundbite from this weirdo is something that 90% of Texans do not believe in. Whether the candidate was Cornyn, Hunt, or Paxton, Texans are going to show up to reject this freakshow. I mean what policies does this guy believe in that is going to get some massive black or Hispanic turnout? Healthcare for transgenders, more than 2 genders, veganism, etc.....? LOL.
The only stance this guy has that may get a slight uptick in black voters would be abortion, but it won't move the needle much. Every Hispanic that i know is a strong Christian and is against abortion.