Houston can't give Bosh the Max without getting rid of Parsons and most of the rest of the team.

Other teams:
Lakers
Chicago
Phoenix
Orlando
Charlotte
Philly

What situation would Houston be in right now if they had chosen to exercise their option on Parsons?

They would still have the same difficulty in offloading Asik and Lin that they are having now.

But it would be $2mm less they would have to clear out. That's the difference in keeping Jones and losing Jones.

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If you want Miami to take on Asik and Lin's $30mm next year after they just paid through the ass and didn't win a ring, my guess if you are giving up Beverly and Jones, too. Probably some draft picks as well.

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Mia wouldn't just take them. Other teams like PHI would be involved to take Lin. Maybe MIA takes Asik, Cash, a pick & Dmo.

Morey came out looking like a genius 2 summers ago when things got bad so I'm hoping he can pull something off again. Lebron taking his time and Chris bosh being a little vagina that can't make a decision on his own are pissing me off.

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What situation would Houston be in right now if they had chosen to exercise their option on Parsons?

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The difference in Parsons cap number by making him RFA is $1.9M. That's not enough to make a difference, it's pretty easy to trade players making $2M or less. Now morey has control, knows the price to pay, and can bring him back or let him walk. If you let Parsons become UFA next year, Morey has to offer the max next year anyway (at 5 years and around $80M) to try and keep parsons from entertaining other offers.

3 years $45M is cheaper than 5 years $80M, so from that standpoint Morey's strategy may actually work out.

Is 3 years 45 million this year really better than 5 years 80 million next? You likely will have to pay the tax a year early which will chew up the minimal savings and much more. Plus if you have a good young player that is developing and is worth the max, then don't you want to lock him in as long as possible at todays rate?

For example, I would much rather the Spurs sign Leonard to a 5 year 80 million extension than a 3 year 45 million extension.

I think you are grasping at straws saying this was a smart financial deal in anyway. He was obviously gambling Parsons would not get a high offer, as soon as that high offer happened then Morey lost the gamble and it became a bad financial deal for houston.

You can argue if the gamble was worth the risk, but there really is no debate that he lost the gamble.

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then don't you want to lock him in as long as possible at todays rate?

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Yes, that's why he let parsons become RFA this year, to try and lock him in beyond the 1 year he had left. He now at least has an opportunity to match, whereas if he had waited till next year, a team could offer him 4 years $70M and he can just take it and the rockets are **** out of luck.

Morey at the end if the day decided that the cost of having RFA and the opportunity to match was worth $1.9M in cap space. At the end of the day, $1.9M in reduced cap space is not going to stop the rockets from getting bosh if bosh wants to go there, you can trade and/or cut $1.9M pretty easily. The only tough ones to move are Lin and asik.

Does he also lose his birds right if he were to become unrestricted?

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Does he also lose his birds right if he were to become unrestricted?

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Rockets lose Bird rights if they renounce him to clear cap space.

If they kept him one more year, they would still have Bird rights and could still pay him more than any other team in the league.

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. At the end of the day, $1.9M in reduced cap space is not going to stop the rockets from getting bosh if bosh wants to go there, you can trade and/or cut $1.9M pretty easily.

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Sure, anyone would take Jones and Beverley for free, but the Rockets likely don't want to dump them for nothing.

The Rockets may be essentially trading Bosh for Parsons, Asik, Lin, Jones, DMo and Beverley. I think the Rockets are losing that and didn't improve if that is how it plays out.

no, rockets would have had bird rights on parsons next year as well if he were UFA.

It was a calculated gamble, which implies there's a chance it doesn't work out in your favor, but claculated gamble is not equivalent to stupid decision. Here's how Morey probably saw it:

Premise/End goal: I like Parsons, and want to keep him around long-term. He has significantly outplayed his rookie deal, and is going to get paid in free agency either by us or another team. There are two paths:

Path A: RFA this year. Costs $1.9M in reduced cap space. 50% chance he gets a max deal, 50% chance he gets a value rate (closer to $8-10M annually), but either way, I can see the price, and choose to match, or let him walk

Path B: UFA next year. 0% chance he gets a value rate, 100% chance I have to offer near max/max contract, because I can't sit back and let the market price him, because I have no contractual right to counter at that point, I'm at the complete mercy of parsons and his agent, so I have to make an aggressive initial offer right out of the gate.

Morey chose path A, probably because he decided that $1.9M in reduced cap space was worth the 50% chance of getting Parsons locked in at a reasonable figure, versus having 0% chance of locking him in at a reasonable rate next year. Of course it implies there's a 50% chance of him getting a max offer this year in RFA, but that's the nature of a calculated risk. You weigh all the factors and make a decision.

I think we should wait and see what Houston actually gives up before proclaiming what they are losing. If they sign and trade for Bosh with Asik, Mo, Canaan and a pick, send Lin and a pick to Philly, then all this hand wringing is for nothing.

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Sure, anyone would take Jones and Beverley

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they're not traading Beverly. If they have to trade someone in addition to Jones, it would be Donatas, who makes more than Beverly, so that would clear more space, plus he's less important to the team than Beverly.

Even if they traded everyone on the team other than Parsons, Harden and Howard, the Rockets still can't give Bosh the max.

All depends how much Bosh wants to hardline for the Max. Do you miss out on Bosh and lose Parsons over Patrick Beverley?

IMO, Morey never expected the James / Bosh saga to drag on like it has. I bet he expected a decision to be made before the 10 day waiting period ended. The timing of the whole thing is really what's putting the Rockets in a bind here.

I don't think Morey thought he would have a legit shot at Bosh or Melo or LeBron or anyone else getting max money.

I think he thought he would be able to get someone like Kyle Lowry for 8-12mm then when he scares everyone off on Parsons, he resigns Parsons for 8-12mm.

And that would be a pretty good summer.

But then Miami seemingly blew up and Bosh became an actual possibility and Cuban thought it was worth overpaying Parsons by ~10mm over 3 years to **** up the Rockets' plans.

I can't tell if I'm optimistic or if I'm just in denial at this point....

If the Rockets sign and trade for Bosh, how does Asik's salary count? Is it the $14.899M number or $8.3M?

The reason I ask is if it's $14.9M, if they trade Canaan, Asik, and Mo, they have plenty of room to accept Bosh's max. Their out going salaries would be $17.2M. If it's $8.3M, then they'd have to use Lin at the same time, making for outgoing salaries of $18.9M.

I probably missed some aspects of the CBA for this, but I think some sort of trade exception has to be how Morey plans on affording Bosh's max. That's why he's holding off. But time is still working against him. If LeBron doesn't announce today, he's screwed.

Asik and Lin both count for 8.3.

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but I think some sort of trade exception has to be how Morey plans on affording Bosh's max.

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To use a trade exception, you have to have enough to absorb the entire contract of one player and one player only.

So if you have a $14mm exception and you want to trade for Asik+Lin, you can use the exception on one of them and do a separate deal for the other.

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Asik and Lin both count for 8.3.

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but I think some sort of trade exception has to be how Morey plans on affording Bosh's max.

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To use a trade exception, you have to have enough to absorb the entire contract of one player and one player only.

So if you have a $14mm exception and you want to trade for Asik+Lin, you can use the exception on one of them and do a separate deal for the other.

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I mean salary coming back. If he justifies the Lin and Asik trades as tied to the Bosh acquisition, say by having Philly and/or New Orleans send cash to Miami, then he can accept back his outgoing salary + $5M, which is enough to get Bosh with just Lin and Asik.

All of this waiting, hypothesizing, stewing, or "screw it, I'm going to have a beer" reminds me a bit of this (minus the actual damage, of course):

Cash in a trade doesn't count towards the cap numbers in the trade.

So if you trade 12mm+3mm in cash for a player worth 15mm, it doesn't even out.

You also can only send/receive 3mm/year total in trades. You used to be able to send or receive up to 3mm per trade. Now all your trades in a year, the money traded can only be 3mm total.

Houston was trying to send 1.5mm with each of Asik/Lin to help offset their 15mm paycheck.

GS, that's not what I meant for the cash. Each team in a multi-team trade has to "touch" at least two others. Houston sends out $16.6M in salaries, so it can accept back $21.6M. Sending $750K in cash counts as a "touch". So let's say this happens:

Houston sends Asik and $1.5M to New Orleans and Lin to Philly (maybe with $1.5M as well). Plus picks, etc.
New Orleans sends $750K to Miami or Philly.
Philly sends $750K to Miami.
Miami sends Bosh to Houston.

Each team is "touching" 2 others. Houston accepts Bosh's $20.7M salary, which is within the max allowable. Or take out New Orleans and send Asik, Jones/D-Mo, and Canaan (plus picks) to Miami. Still works.

I don't see any other way for Houston to be able to afford Bosh's max, and I don't think Morey would offer a contract he can't give, so he has to have something like this planned, in my mind.

Houston would still have to renounce Parsons in that deal. There is no $5mm waiver if the Rockets are in the tax. And each of the three teams would have to agree to it. New Orleans doesn't have the cap room to absorb the salary.

I don't know that Miami would do that without receiving anything. Trade Bosh away for a cool million?

If Houston is in the tax, then it can accept 125% back. $16.6M * 1.25 = $20.75M. So they can still accept Bosh.

And I agree, there are a lot of moving parts, and not a lot of incentive for Miami. Houston would likely need to send Jones and something else their way. But bottom line is that sign and trade is really the only way Houston can give Bosh a max, and they have to include Lin AND Asik simultaneously as the outgoing salaries.

[This message has been edited by Ryan34 (edited 7/11/2014 9:41a).]

"Path A: RFA this year. Costs $1.9M in reduced cap space. 50% chance he gets a max deal, 50% chance he gets a value rate (closer to $8-10M annually), but either way, I can see the price, and choose to match, or let him walk

Path B: UFA next year. 0% chance he gets a value rate, 100% chance I have to offer near max/max contract, because I can't sit back and let the market price him, because I have no contractual right to counter at that point, I'm at the complete mercy of parsons and his agent, so I have to make an aggressive initial offer right out of the gate."


You are glossing over some huge variables that should have been factored in. For one, allowing Parsons to play out his rookie contract, means that you get him for cheap for one more year. That is a huge value that shouldn't be brushed aside. Houston also could have paid Parsons more than any other team next year when he becomes a UFA as they own the bird rights. For Parsons to leave your team he would have to take less money to do so.

If he is so miserable in Houston that he would take less money to leave, then do you really think its a great idea to lock him in with a value RFA contract when he has no desire to be in Houston in the first place?

Plus the Rockets will now be paying the tax a year early. So even if it is 3 years 45 million as an RFA vice 5 years 80 million as an UFA next year then the money isn't as significant as you are saying.

RFA: 2015 - 15 million (plus tax); 2016 - 15 million (plus tax), 2017 - 15 million (plus tax)

UFA: 2015 - 1.9 million (no tax), 2016 - 16 million (plus tax), 2017 - 16 million (plus tax).

Because of paying the tax a year early, you would actually have to go into the 2019 season before the financials of the UFA deal would potentally be worse than the RFA deal and in the meantime you all but guarantee four years of Parsons prime at a reduced rate per year over the RFA amount. Plus by 2019 the salary cap will be much higher so this actually might be a decent contract for a player that projects to be a top 10 SF.

Unless you honestly have zero confidence in your ability to keep a home grown player that is playing on a top 5 NBA team that you can offer the most money and play in an income tax free state, then the RFA route was just a bad gamble. Morey greatly underestimated his value in the league or Cuban just screwed him.

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So even if it is 3 years 45 million as an RFA vice 5 years 80 million as an UFA next year then the money isn't as significant as you are saying.

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And it is really like 3y46mm vs 6y81mm because you get that extra one year 900k. So 13.5mm/year over 6 years. Not too shabby.

And that first year of the 3y46, you are over the luxury tax about 5mm, so you are paying an extra 7.5mm in luxury tax and qualifying for the repeater tax a year early.

Concur with guitar. It was a bad gamble.

When you add in the luxury tax considerations you could possibly be pushing 2020 for a break even point.

I think they have to let Parsons walk now. The finances just don't make sense after Morey's misstep.

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Houston also could have paid Parsons more than any other team next year when he becomes a UFA as they own the bird rights.

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If I had to guess (and of course it's just a guess), I would guess that Morey likes Chandler and wants to keep him around, but also simultaneously does not view Chandler as a max player, which is what was staring him down the barrel next year in UFA.

So the only chance Daryl had at trying to achieve both goals (keep parsons around beyond 2015, but at a more reasonable figure) was to let him become a FA early so that he's restricted and see what kind of offer sheet comes in. It was a calculated risk that Morey took to see if he could have his cake (Parsons long term) and eat it too (at a $8-$10M number).

You may be right, but if he doesn't see him as a max player then you have to let him walk now that dallas offered basically max money.

I think that's what Morey does, but again you now have the perception that you traded Lin, Asik and Parsons for Bosh. That isn't really getting much better.

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I think that's what Morey does, but again you now have the perception that you traded Lin, Asik and Parsons for Bosh. That isn't really getting much better.

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They were always going to gut the team for Bosh. Having Parsons for one more year would have been nice, but you don't tie up 60 million dollars in three players and expect to field a team.

If we land Bosh and Chandler did he still screw it?

Depends if you have to give up Jones and Bev to keep both of them, IMHO