Looks like we may have gotten involved in Venezuela

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Bunk Moreland
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TRM said:




Accurate. My wife said last night everyone back in VZ is saying nothing, being very cautious. They're now stuck between the current regime playing ball with the US (maybe), Diosdado looking to use his might and his Colectivos to create fear and harass, injure and kill anyone in the country who shows any support for anything other than Maduro, and the ever-wanting fight for free elections and possible democracy.

I think reality is setting in over there that this is a year out at least, and there is no clear path to a good outcome. There are some paths though that are definitely better than Maduro remaining in charge.
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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P.U.T.U said:

Hegseth confirmed we seized the Bella 1 and that a blockade remains for all sanctioned and illicit oil.

I don't do social media, but there has to be a Hegseth gif on the tanker saying "I am the Captain now".

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TRM
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Logos Stick
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Lots of oil coming our way!

flown-the-coop
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Probably MRF or MSPF.
Ag with kids
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Bunk Moreland said:

TRM said:




Accurate. My wife said last night everyone back in VZ is saying nothing, being very cautious. They're now stuck between the current regime playing ball with the US (maybe), Diosdado looking to use his might and his Colectivos to create fear and harass, injure and kill anyone in the country who shows any support for anything other than Maduro, and the ever-wanting fight for free elections and possible democracy.

I think reality is setting in over there that this is a year out at least, and there is no clear path to a good outcome. There are some paths though that are definitely better than Maduro remaining in charge.

Wikipedia lists both Rodriguez and Diosdado as "Acting President of Venezuela"...
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LMCane
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flown-the-coop said:

Probably time to start looking past Putin…. But not yet.

His global coalition seeming to fall apart after he pissed billions away to Iran, Venezuela and special military actions certainly undercut any further aspirations he may have had.

Who's next in Russia becomes ever more critical. And don't forget Putin still sits on top of nukes and a depleted but respectable arsenal.

He's weaker but he's not weak.




when we put the final nail in the Islamic Republic coffin-

that LITERALLY changes the entire world overnight.

no more support to Hizbullah

no more support to Hamas

no more support to Yemen Houthis

no more support to Iraqi militias

no more support to Syrian militias and Syrian Hizbullah

no more nuclear weapons threat

no more Shahed drones to Russia to use against Ukraine
Bunk Moreland
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Yes, both are trying to present control/authority. the VZ people couldn't care less for Delcy, but they are mortified of Diosdado.
BusterAg
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nortex97 said:

It's off Scotland now apparently, Brits are sending a bunch of typhoons/assets to 'monitor' the situation too. Time to stop dancing around this thing. We've flown AC-130's and a bunch of gear in just for this rust bucket.

Also:


Good indication the current Venezuelan Gov't continues to cooperate with Trump etc.

Lessons learned:

1) You can sell oil to China or Russia.
2) You can smuggle drugs into the US.
3) You CANNOT do both. We will take your oil.
LMCane
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Iran and China and Russia hardest hit.

keep it up US NAVY and US COAST GUARD!!

grab every single black list oil tanker around the entire world.
Ag with kids
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Bunk Moreland said:

Yes, both are trying to present control/authority. the VZ people couldn't care less for Delcy, but they are mortified of Diosdado.

Diosdado would be wise to understand that HE is under indictment ALSO. In case he didn't notice, we just picked up the last president of VZ BECAUSE they were under indictment. I doubt Trump would have the slightest problem grabbing his ass too.
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Logos Stick
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LOL, note he didn't say "act of war".

If Putin wants to ramp this up, then we heavily weaponize Ukraine with offensive weapons, including nukes!

aggiehawg
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Fun fact: Venezuela's Constitution is not like ours. The VP does not automatically ascend to the Presidency Can be Acting President until elections can be held.
Rossticus
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Bunk Moreland
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aggiehawg said:

Fun fact: Venezuela's Constitution is not like ours. The VP does not automatically ascend to the Presidency Can be Acting President until elections can be held.


Correct. They also have a specific clause or law that says during certain times of crisis they have the right to restrict content/communication deemed hateful, limit what is said on broadcasts, etc.

This is what Diosdado is doing right now. He is sending Colectivos to anyone they randomly choose to deem suspicious and checking phone messages and anything to try and find 'proof' of those disloyal to then jail them.

So mum's the word by the people over there until more developments happen. Then you've got the olds in Caracas that the security forces go require to 'protest' in support of a free Maduro for the cameras and international media useful idiots to use as propaganda.
caleblyn
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Quick question, and it truly is a question.

First, I am excited for Venezuela and their citizens. Removing Maduro is huge for their country. Yes, we were working under a warrant and executed that warrant. I do not believe we are invading or trying to take over land.

However, and here is the question, if someone were to challenge my belief of the situation by asking why are we taking all of this oil, how do you respond? Please provide a summary of what I am missing. What is the deal with the oil and why is Trump stating that the US will receive 40-50 Million Barrels of oil from V?

tia
Bunk Moreland
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caleblyn said:

Quick question, and it truly is a question.

First, I am excited for Venezuela and their citizens. Removing Maduro is huge for their country. Yes, we were working under a warrant and executed that warrant. I do not believe we are invading or trying to take over land.

However, and here is the question, if someone were to challenge my belief of the situation by asking why are we taking all of this oil, how do you respond? Please provide a summary of what I am missing. What is the deal with the oil and why is Trump stating that the US will receive 40-50 Million Barrels of oil from V?

tia


Past history is that Venezuela seized American oil company operations and infrastructure there, or 'stole' it, which is what you hear from the Trump admin. Chevron I believe sued VZ years ago for this. So part of this is getting paid back on loss of investment.

The other side is this specific oil being discussed is currently sanctioned oil that is going via black market/dark market/however to China, Cuba and other adversaries. There is other non-sanctioned oil legally going out to western allied countries from VZ, but the specific oil being discussed here is the sanctioned oil.

So they give it to us, we can help refine it and sell it, pay back American Oil Companies, and offer to spend some of that money back into reinvestment in VZ if they are willing to play ball. We also block a major oil partner for other world enemies, making their lives much more difficult.
boulderaggie
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I think part of it has to do with the fact that Chevron (and others?) purchased oil rights, built infrastructure and Venezuela stole it and kicked them out. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the US proceeds from this oil isn't used in some other US endeavor, e.g., Greenland, to basically buy it for free or using house money. Seems like a Trump move.
No Spin Ag
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Logos Stick said:

LOL, note he didn't say "act of war".

If Putin wants to ramp this up, then we heavily weaponize Ukraine with offensive weapons, including nukes!




Dear sweet baby Jesus, please let Putin FA with us.
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Tailgate88
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Someone needs to Photoshop a Come & Take It flag with an oil tanker replacing the cannon.
Sims
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boulderaggie said:

I think part of it has to do with the fact that Chevron (and others?) purchased oil rights, built infrastructure and Venezuela stole it and kicked them out. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the US proceeds from this oil isn't used in some other US endeavor, e.g., Greenland, to basically buy it for free or using house money. Seems like a Trump move.

Much larger than that.

Several companies have had hundreds of millions of capital stolen and nationalized by Venezuela.

There is close to $200B in bonds that have been defaulted on by Venezuela - both governmentally and pdvsa.

There is infrstructure debt to China - both payable in currency and others tied to payment in oil.

As we start taking oil, we're taking China's payments from them.

There are LOTS of claims on Venezuelan oil assets.
TX_COWDOC
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Tailgate88 said:

Someone needs to Photoshop a Come & Take It flag with an oil tanker replacing the cannon.


Then, that same someone can please photoshop in a corrupt somalian civic leader with a large dick who's also married to his sister to validate a certain resident stunt man from the 1980's.
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samurai_science
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caleblyn said:

Quick question, and it truly is a question.

First, I am excited for Venezuela and their citizens. Removing Maduro is huge for their country. Yes, we were working under a warrant and executed that warrant. I do not believe we are invading or trying to take over land.

However, and here is the question, if someone were to challenge my belief of the situation by asking why are we taking all of this oil, how do you respond? Please provide a summary of what I am missing. What is the deal with the oil and why is Trump stating that the US will receive 40-50 Million Barrels of oil from V?

tia

Trump is trolling, the oil will go to whomever buys it, and hopefully that will lubricate the V economy.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Martels Hammer
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Rossticus said:



Hey China,

Let's talk about patents and intellectual property.
SeMgCo87
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nortex97 said:

JamesE4 said:

KentK93 said:

docb said:

Exxon Mobil in Baytown can process that nasty crude oil all day long

Isn't there a Velero refinery that was purposed built for VZ heavy crude? Looks like this is a timely build: New Houston refinery

The proposed Element fuel refinery will be designed for Texas fracked shale oil crudes, not heavy oil crude. There are several refineries in the Gulf that can handle heavy crudes - some were revamped to handle lighter U.S. crudes, but could probably be switched back to heavier blends if the crudes are cheap enough.

I saw this and thought of this post. What do you think we will do with the Chevron oil that they are now going to pick up, continue to send it to China? Genuinely curious.
Quote:

Years ago China imported almost no oil from Venezuela due to a lack of heavy crude refining facilities. Since the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two nations, China invested tens of billions to strengthen cooperation. Specifically, in 2023, the China-Venezuela Petrochemical Plant was built in Jieyang, Guangdong. This 20-million-ton-per-year integrated refining and chemical project is the flagship of the China-Venezuela strategic cooperation (referred to as the "China-Venezuela Project"). It was designed specifically to refine Venezuelan Merey-16 heavy crude. By 2025, it was expected that Venezuela would provide 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day to the Jieyang refinery, accounting for over 90% of Venezuela's total exports.

Now that Trump has taken control of Venezuela, he has "killed two birds with one stone." The U.S. military has already secured Venezuelan shipping ports (such as the Port of Jose). Consequently, the China-Venezuela Jieyang plant has been cut off from its supply; facing a total lack of oil to refine, the facility is now at risk of becoming obsolete.

By securing this supply, the U.S. can not only feed its own refineriessatisfying their "hunger" for heavy crudebut also intercept the flow of Venezuelan oil to China. This effectively "throttles" Chinese refineries, delivering a precision strike against China's core heavy oil import strategy while simultaneously seizing control over global heavy oil pricing power.

Well, yes, President Trump has offered reassurances that he will guarantee China's heavy oil supply, but who knows how much will be supplied and under which condition? This "guaranteed supply" will become a strategic bargaining chip for America likely used to pressure China into "oil-for-debt" or "oil-for-tariffs" swaps. Furthermore, while Venezuelan oil was previously purchased using Chinese currency RMB (Yuan), it will inevitably return to USD settlement, ensuring dominance over petroleum finance.

China is a big loser, this is for sure.


The currency angle is a big deal, I hadn't really thought much about that. Trump has said he will send oil still to China, but he didn't note the currency (didn't need to really).

Oh, and for those curious, this is also a knock-on effect imho, of the Venezuelan action impacting the global trade of oil as a commodity:

Adversely impacting in very significant ways all of Cuba, Iran, Russia and China is a pretty brilliant outcome from arresting two people, I'd say. Even media types with TDS I'd expect realize that.

Okay, so you're saying a total mainstream media profession, which in total possesses an IQ of 17, can make that conclusion?
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Rossticus
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If you REALLY want to find out in a hurry, this is how you do it, Russia. Think veeeeery carefully. I have to think that this guy must be the Duma's "village idiot" but it's hard to tell with the extreme rhetoric those guys like to toss around.

aggiehawg
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Rossticus said:

If you REALLY want to find out in a hurry, this is how you do it, Russia. Think veeeeery carefully. I have to think that this guy must be the Duma's "village idiot" but it's hard to tell with the extreme rhetoric those guys like to toss around.



American military can only fire under one of two circumstances: Direction of the President OR they are fired upon.

A torpedo strike upon one of our military ships? Yeah, then we go "proportional" on their ass.
P.U.T.U
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We have several P8s in the region around our navy and coast guard vessels, we know where you are at Russia. People don't realize how advanced our navy is compared to everyone else.
Ag with kids
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aggiehawg said:

Rossticus said:

If you REALLY want to find out in a hurry, this is how you do it, Russia. Think veeeeery carefully. I have to think that this guy must be the Duma's "village idiot" but it's hard to tell with the extreme rhetoric those guys like to toss around.



American military can only fire under one of two circumstances: Direction of the President OR they are fired upon.

A torpedo strike upon one of our military ships? Yeah, then we go "proportional" on their ass.


Our definition of "proportional" is a little more harsh than everyone else's…
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USAFAg
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Martels Hammer said:

Rossticus said:



Hey China,

Let's talk about patents and intellectual property.

And theft of territory and resource access in the South China Sea
Waffledynamics
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USA*** said:

Martels Hammer said:

Rossticus said:



Hey China,

Let's talk about patents and intellectual property.

And theft of territory and resource access in the South China Sea


And about that gigantic fleet of fishing boats.
JamesE4
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nortex97 said:

JamesE4 said:

KentK93 said:

docb said:

Exxon Mobil in Baytown can process that nasty crude oil all day long

Isn't there a Velero refinery that was purposed built for VZ heavy crude? Looks like this is a timely build: New Houston refinery

The proposed Element fuel refinery will be designed for Texas fracked shale oil crudes, not heavy oil crude. There are several refineries in the Gulf that can handle heavy crudes - some were revamped to handle lighter U.S. crudes, but could probably be switched back to heavier blends if the crudes are cheap enough.

I saw this and thought of this post. What do you think we will do with the Chevron oil that they are now going to pick up, continue to send it to China? Genuinely curious.
Quote:

Years ago China imported almost no oil from Venezuela due to a lack of heavy crude refining facilities. Since the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two nations, China invested tens of billions to strengthen cooperation. Specifically, in 2023, the China-Venezuela Petrochemical Plant was built in Jieyang, Guangdong. This 20-million-ton-per-year integrated refining and chemical project is the flagship of the China-Venezuela strategic cooperation (referred to as the "China-Venezuela Project"). It was designed specifically to refine Venezuelan Merey-16 heavy crude. By 2025, it was expected that Venezuela would provide 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day to the Jieyang refinery, accounting for over 90% of Venezuela's total exports.

Now that Trump has taken control of Venezuela, he has "killed two birds with one stone." The U.S. military has already secured Venezuelan shipping ports (such as the Port of Jose). Consequently, the China-Venezuela Jieyang plant has been cut off from its supply; facing a total lack of oil to refine, the facility is now at risk of becoming obsolete.

By securing this supply, the U.S. can not only feed its own refineriessatisfying their "hunger" for heavy crudebut also intercept the flow of Venezuelan oil to China. This effectively "throttles" Chinese refineries, delivering a precision strike against China's core heavy oil import strategy while simultaneously seizing control over global heavy oil pricing power.

Well, yes, President Trump has offered reassurances that he will guarantee China's heavy oil supply, but who knows how much will be supplied and under which condition? This "guaranteed supply" will become a strategic bargaining chip for America likely used to pressure China into "oil-for-debt" or "oil-for-tariffs" swaps. Furthermore, while Venezuelan oil was previously purchased using Chinese currency RMB (Yuan), it will inevitably return to USD settlement, ensuring dominance over petroleum finance.

China is a big loser, this is for sure.


The currency angle is a big deal, I hadn't really thought much about that. Trump has said he will send oil still to China, but he didn't note the currency (didn't need to really).

Oh, and for those curious, this is also a knock-on effect imho, of the Venezuelan action impacting the global trade of oil as a commodity:

Adversely impacting in very significant ways all of Cuba, Iran, Russia and China is a pretty brilliant outcome from arresting two people, I'd say. Even media types with TDS I'd expect realize that.

I have also done work for international companies investing in refining assets in China. I would bet that Trump will allow the Venezuelan crude to still go to China, with a tariff or management fee going to U.S. If not, then there are other crude blends that the Chinese refinery can buy to keep their capacity up. While heavy crudes stress different units in a refinery than light crudes, there is a lot of flexibility to buy different heavy crude blends. I think there is some capability to get Canadian heavy crudes to Asia, and some Middle East crudes are pretty heavy also.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Our definition of "proportional" is a little more harsh than everyone else's…

Only when they keep shooting at us.
 
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